Posted on 11/03/2009 2:34:12 AM PST by markomalley
Polls can measure many things, but one thing they have a hard time getting at is intensity: Yes, people will tell a pollster whom they prefer in a campaign, but do they feel so strongly about their choice that they'll actually go out to vote?
Only elections can answer the intensity question, which is the most important factor in Tuesday's off-year governor's elections in New Jersey and Virginia and, increasingly, a special election in a New York congressional district. Intensity, as much as outcomes, may provide the best insight into national trends heading into the much more meaningful election in 2010.
Last year, Barack Obama and his Democrats owned the intensity factor. Lately it has seemed to lie with the Republicans. Anger is a great motivator, and there's plenty of anger on the GOP side over Democratic plans for health care and government spending.
But what does that mean in a real election? Maybe the intensity factor will mean only that core Republicans who were going to vote anyway simply punch the button a bit harder. Or perhaps the intensity will extend to the growing ranks of independents, many of whom went Democrat last year but now may want to vent recent unhappiness by casting a vote the other way.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Yes
We
Are!
To give you a microcosmic report, my town--16,000-- had a teaparty meeting last night.
Over 200 attended, Democrat, Republican, and others, stressing "freedom," and the need to "stop this train wreck."
Assorted meatworld snafus kept me & my wife from attending, but she looked up the story in the local paper this morning, and it sounds encouraging.
As Michelle Malkin likes to say,
"Can you hear us Now?"
IMO, we may see a dramatic statement from the American Voter today! This is a good point by the WSJ about intensity of voters....watch as the WSJ reporting, FOX, RNCC/GOP, Brit Tories and assorted other quasi-conservatives will blow both ways for and against. The stunner will be, IMO when the blowout in NY-23 & NJ is much higher then the punditas could imagine.
I've never seen anyone as motivated as my 21 year old. She called me last night to make sure I don't vote before work, because she wants to go with me after work. Make it a family thing. My 26 year old is also extremely excited about voting against the democrats. We have multi- generations and we are ticked off.
“The stunner will be, IMO when the blowout in NY-23 & NJ is much higher then the pundits could imagine.”
Agreed. I also think the margin of victory in NY and NJ could be striking. And hopefully so much so that it gives serious pause to the Dems in DC re voting for this outrageously bad and dangerous health care bill. The blue dogs etc kill it in the house and the senate buries it.
I just voted a short while ago in my Arlington, VA polling location, and it was almost completely empty. I was in and out in under five minutes, which means McDonnell wins in a major landslide. This one will be called by the media the instant the polls close here.
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