Posted on 11/03/2009 6:01:26 AM PST by blam
Technical Analyst: The World Is About To End
Henry Blodget
Nov. 3, 2009, 6:59 AM
Since expressing (ridicule) skepticism about technical analysis a few months ago, we have been politely badgered by reader John Brims, who has been sending us charts and murmuring about wedges.
We will confess that we have not been listening too carefully, because, well, because we think technical analysis is a bunch of bullsh**.
But John has been persistent, so we'll give him his chance to shine.
John says the chart below indicates that the world is about to end. So hang on to your hat!
Henry, I am going to give up on you. As a non believer you are missing out. These 5 wedges have clearly shown the end of each rally and on each occasion have signaled further heavy falls. The fifth wedge which I have sent you several times has just broken to the downside and indicates extremely heavy falls are now in the pipeline.
(Let us at least go on record as saying that we're generally bearish, too, for reasons having nothing to do with wedges.)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I went to 100% cash last Friday.
I’m going to be 100% gold and silver in a month!
Silver has given a much higher return than gold.
Oh my Gawd! All this time it was the wedgies.
It’s the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine!!!
The more people believe in technical analysis, especially in a unified theory of it, the more accurate it becomes, as the actions of the believers make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Be careful about going 100% to gold. The reflation trade is causing gold in the past 6 months to trade in lockstep with the S&P 500. Just chart SPY vs. GLD on one of the charting websites like bigcharts or yahoo finance and you will see what I mean, a very high correlation. The fact is, both stocks and gold (and to some extent oil) are all in lockstep with gyrations of the US dollar.
That may not continue in a massive meltdown, but it may if that meltdown occurs because the dollar strengthens. Although long term the dollar will continue to weaken, in a global meltdown there will be a “flight” to the dollar as there was last feb/march. Whatever you say about the dollar, everyone still wants them over other currencies in a crisis. And that could actually drive DOWN the price of gold.
The bottom line: Do not be 100% in ANYTHING. Diversify. But I agree stocks are very risky now. If you have stocks buy some put options. The nov 102 to 98 bear spread is still pretty reasonable.
Real estate, food, ammo.
Cash is merely a conduit, a medium of exchange. If you’re not transferring value, exchanging one thing for another, it rots quickly.
“The more people believe in technical analysis, especially in a unified theory of it, the more accurate it becomes, as the actions of the believers make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
-There’s a simple yet highly astute statement. Bravo. And the more people who realize that fundamental analysts (read as Wall Street) has been lying to them, then the more people will convert to technical analysis and increase the speed at which accuracy approaches.
Why would anyone in the world with half a lick of sense listen to anything Henry Blodgett says?
Property Values Set to Fall 43% From Current Depressed Levels
It's John Brim's data that is being reported...not Blodget's.
Right, but isn’t this article written by Henry Blodget?
Yup. All my real estate is 100% paid off...well, except that reocurring expense called taxes.
CASH WORK. HOARD YOUR CASH. BUY GOLD. STOCKPILE GAS (you can save about 3-4 months at a time). Get a Sat Phone and put it and a GPS into a Faraday cage. Have a shotgun, and at least 1 revolver and a gun each for you and your spouse. Make sure your kids 13 and up know how to shoot. Get plenty of ammo. Have an escape plan through back roads. Get one of those tunfoil Mormon food kits that last 6mos or a year. Prepare. Pray.
“Real estate, food, ammo.
Property Values Set to Fall 43% From Current Depressed Levels”
FARM real estate that is paid for!
(and food and ammo ;-)
Don’t worry. All we need to do is ship more jobs overseas. That will fix our economy.
I got over to the short side Friday.
bump
Shoot! I'm a lot better prepared than that.
BTW, if you'll add Sta-bil to your stored gasoline, you can store it for two+ years.
Also, when you buy your gasoline for storage, buy it in the winter months...the refineries add more butane to it during the winter months...this will also extend the life of your gasoline.
thx for the info guys....I’m still trying to find oxygen absorbers though.....don’t know where to buy them....I’ve got all this sugar to store...
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