Democrat wins House seat in heavily GOP area in NY

Breitbart ^ | Nov 4, 2009 | VALERIE BAUMAN

[lonestar]

If most of the RINO's votes were cast in early voting, before she dropped out, would Hoffman have gotten most of them?

[Always Right]

So heavily Republican that the Democrats haven't held the seat for 160 years.

Held by the type of 'Republicans' who would get an appointment from Obama. This is a liberal Republican district. The only reason Scozzafava considered herself a Republican is because she lived in this district. I still think if Hoffman had the 'R' after his name he would have won.

[Ratman83]

Yes they did in spades.

[meyer]

The republican party shot itself in the foot in this one, putting that liberal up in the election. Needless to say, it’s way past time to clean out the ranks of the party elite.

[thethirddegree]

What do we know about Owens? Is he a conservative moderate (I have heard that NY-23) is conservative) or is he a left-leaning liberal?

[Ratman83]

For the Pres yes but otherwise more GOP-ish.

[Ratman83]

Yes, the local party was lost from the get go, but the national party needs to look at the canidates closer before they back them. Shamefull

[meyer]

Yeah the polls looked good going in. In Jersey I was worried about the corrupt stealing the election.

ACORN's a little short on money this year, so the could only steal 1 election. They chose the one that could do Obambi the most good - putting another dem in the House.

[Ratman83]

No one said the MSM was fair.

[concerned about politics]

The Conservative did very well considering his political enemies. It was very close, even though the guy was battling both the DNC and RNC mega parties. He did it all on his own.

Screw the Republican party. It's not like they're on our side. They supported the democrat more than the Conservative candidate! I think this small election brought the Rino party out of the closet.

[Ratman83]

I think he is a solid Lib, not good.

[meyer]

I still think if Hoffman had the 'R' after his name he would have won.

I think that we need to encourage the IDIOTS at the RNC that Hoffman might be the one to have an "R" next to his name. Although Hoffman may have enough integrity to NOT want an "R" next to his name.

[BuffaloJack]

Exactly what part of the Socialist State of New York is there a GOP stronghold? Even the Republicans here are Democrats who switch temporarily to win an election race over another Democrat.

[Paladin2]

"Instead, let me just lay out the three distinct parts of this district:

"• Western North Country (Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence Counties): These counties are Scozzafava's base; together, they make up 35% of the district's vote. This is probably also the swingiest part of the district, with Jefferson (home of Watertown and Ft. Drum) going for McCain, 47/52, and Lewis going for McCain 45/54. St. Lawrence went for Obama 58/41.

"• Eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties): These counties, centered on Plattsburgh in Clinton County, are Owens's geographic base; they make up 25% of the vote. This is also the most Democratic part of the district: Clinton went for Obama 61/38, Essex (part) 56/42, and Franklin 60/38.

"• Syracuse market (Oswego, Oneida, and Madison Counties): These counties are further south and in the Syracuse media market; they make up 35% of the vote. These seem to have become Hoffman's de facto turf since a) he doesn't live in the district and b) without a favorite son/daughter, they're more open to persuasion by TV ad. They're also on the conservative side: Obama won Madison 49/48 and Oswego 50/48, while losing the part of Oneida 39/59. (The remaining 5% of the vote is in two rural counties in the leg that sticks down into the Adirondacks; they're quite conservative, with McCain winning Fulton (part) 40/59 and Hamilton 36/63.)

"One path to victory for Owens (by a, say, 47/46/6 margin) would be to win the eastern North Country with percentages in the high 50s, while breaking at least 40% in the Syracuse area while holding Hoffman in the low 50s. He would need to break 40% in Scozzafava's turf, which would require keeping her numbers in the single digits. (As at this point, Scozzafava votes are probably ideologically more aligned with Owens, i.e. life-long moderate Republicans who just can't bring themselves to vote for a Demmycrat and decide to go down with the ship). "

Still looking for county votes.

The GOP lost the congressional race in CA too.

[Paladin2]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/ny-23-results-by-county-owens-appears.html

[Paladin2]

[ROCKLOBSTER]

From the article: Bill Owens had a lead of 49 percent to 45 percent over businessman Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate....Dierdre Scozzafava...had still picked up 5 percent of the vote.

CGG asks: WHY did he get the most votes?

He didn't...50% of the people vote against him.

CGG asks: Is fraud a consideration?

Yes, and its name is Scozzafava.

[Non-Sequitur]

I still think if Hoffman had the 'R' after his name he would have won.

We may find out in about a year. But I suggest he move into the district before he runs again.

[manc]

exactly

how many of the voters look for an R or D and then vote .

Thousands up there I bet, my Dem mother in law is the same, totally clueless and yet keeps voting Dem.

It is high time to get rid of the letters after names and make voters actually do some research before voting.

[manc]

Hoffman should work for the entire year to get his name out there for the next election in a year