Posted on 11/09/2009 9:59:27 AM PST by FromLori
The "mother of all jobless recoveries.
The more the market recovers, the more bearish David Rosenberg gets (which, of course, is how it should be).
Today's startling prediction, which David made on Bloomberg Radio this morning? Unemployment may go to 13%.
It would be hard to reconcile THAT one with the popular v-shaped recovery theory.
Bloomberg: The U.S. unemployment rate may rise to a post-World War II high of 13 percent in the aftermath of the recession, said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc. in Toronto.
“This is going to be the mother of all jobless recoveries,” Rosenberg said today in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “At the beginning of the year, who was calling for unemployment to go up to 10 percent?”
Rosenberg said the recession, the deepest since the Great Depression, “is truly secular in nature” and said the economy is “in a post-bubble credit collapse.”
A 13 percent unemployment rate would be the highest since monthly records began in January 1948, according to Labor Department data. The previous postwar high was 10.8 percent in December 1982. Yearly records, which began in 1929, show joblessness climbed to almost 25 percent in 1933 during the Great Depression.
Keep reading >
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
That would put real unemployment up around 20 percent and growing.
This is not a job-less recovery like they tried to hang on Bush. This is a job-killing recovery (if that recovery thing isn’t nonsense to start with)
Not good for Dems in 2010.
Quite frankly, I think we could hit 15%.
At this rate, the Market will soon be at 20,000, and unemployment will be at 30%!
At this rate, the Market will soon be at 20,000, and unemployment will be at 30%!
Worse since the numbers are fudged to begin with and it is actually at 17.5% right now.
I presume the author is referring to the "U-number" that's currently at "10.2%".
That, in turn, would push U-6 to nearly 25%, right?
That's because the popular v-shaped recovery theory is a load of codswallop.
I was estimating the real UE rate to be closer to 25%
Good point but bad for people in the meantime.
Well, here’s a crude extrapolation.
10.2 is to 13.0 as
17.5 is to 22.3
Things are going to get ugly...
If conservatives could take over today, honestly, what could they do to fix this. I don’t think tax cuts will do it. It is not like companies are not hiring, they are just not hiring here.
Oh, and
10.2 is to 13.9 as
17.5 is to 23.8
Or worse then 15% I think.
Now that we've passed 10% on unemployment, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to "run it up" over the next few months, in order to have the rate fall in the quarter leading up to the 2010 mid-terms.
Tax cuts certainly couldn’t hurt right now.
That was roughly the exercise I went through ... “13% is roughly 30% more than 10.2%, so 30% more than 17.5% is ...”.
By repealing everything that has been done since 20 Jan 2009 the system would recover itself in a few months. Reinstate the "Bush" tax cuts and increase them. Other things too numerous to mention...such as getting rid of all of Obama's Communists in the government
mmm...mmm...mmm.
LLS
but...but...the MSM said ‘the recession is over’?
I guess that's one way of looking at spinning a depression.
Feel better. It's not the "start of the depression". It's the "recession's aftermath"!
Simple: Discontinue all income related taxation for two years, followed by a flat tax of 10% made permanent, and terminate all employment related regulations.
The economy would sure so strong that you'd need a ten teraflop processor to keep track of it.
Simple: Discontinue all income related taxation for two years, followed by a flat tax of 10% made permanent, and terminate all employment related regulations.
The economy would surge so strong that you'd need a ten teraflop processor to keep track of it.
They could let the markets/businesses know that the Bush tax cuts wouldn't expire, the ‘kill granny bill’ is dead, and ‘crap and tax’ Owl Gore wet dream bill is gone and will never be heard from again!!
Unemployment could S O A R... as governmental policies are against small business. Sure you can have conflicting policies... as in the case of the stimulus VS the perceived marxist takeover of America. Small business is the employment generator and motor of the economy. Taxes and big marxist government intervention smother it, thus employment is crushed. Crushed employment = crushed economy.
Nationalize Healthcare
Nationalize Autos
Nationalize Banks
Nationalize Student Loans
Nationalize Home Loans
Tax Increases
Cap and Tax Job Exportation
Trade Wars
Massive Dollar Printing
What entrepreneur would be stupid enough to hire in this environment? None.
Unemployment will rise until 0bummer is permanently politically defeated.
Until then, RIF ‘em all!
I agree we are in the start of a Depression and because of what they are doing it will be a long hard one possibly worse then any ever.
Jobless rate of 20% is completely consistent with v shaped recovery. Everyone in American business knows that 20% of people are pulling 80% of the load.
The government-imposed costs on employment have finally hit the tipping point with many more costs being threatened.
The number of American workers whose marginal productivity is less than the cost of compliance with government regs is now an open floodgate.
Why would anyone hire sub-standard employees right before they pass card check?
This is as bad if not worse than the Great Depression, why would it stop at 13%? It won’t. Even if that is all they report...
I hope so too you may be better off because the private sector is just going no where and you will probably get better security and benefits anyway. Good Luck!
Why is it so hard for people to see this? You think any employer isgoing ramp up hiring with all the government dreck coming down the pike? Companies, especially small businesses, are in SURVIVAL mode and have no thought about hiring.
When they say 10% unemployed, the actual figure is much higher, probably around 20%. And yes, I think it could go higher than 15%.
Are those figures coming from Pravda or Izvestia? The Bolsheviks in DC are lying, as usual. They are downplaying the true numbers. That 13% would represnet only those who are recently laid off and drawing unemployment benefits. They don’t count the people who have given up finding a job. I’d imagine the actual rate is twice what is reported.
Right they are and I wonder if this is even accurate given the source.
Reagan said it best in 1980:
“It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job.
It’s a depression when you lose your job.
And it will be a recovery when Jimmy Carter loses his job.”
This should be our rallying cry for 2012. Only two words need to change.
Republican party would probably do nothing useful.. however recipe for the recovery is well known and been used in places that were far further gone (east europe being major example)
1. Full tax reform, flat tax or vat or “fair” tax (flat version). Abolishing of the income tax, corporate tax etc. Paying tax should be a trivial exercise for anyone and small business in particular
2. Removal of all subsidies on everything, steel, agriculture, sell of GM and Chrysler and whatever else can be sold that is owned by gov
3. Stop all active monetary games
4. Remove social security, medicaid and whatever other entitlement you can find. In other places inflation was used to kill them
5. Abolish minimum wage
6. For added bonus legalize drugs (all of them)
7. Because of 4. illegal immigration is a non-issue atleast in short term
Let the barebone cuthroat free market take over.. 1 year and country will be out of it and prospering.
US needs to become competitive again to do that there is a lot of shock that needs to happen. Current situation is not nearly dare enough for real shock treatment to be administered, but thats what it will take to get the country back on track
You can thank both the communist Democrats and the communist RINOs, including GHWB and GWB, and every Free Traitor RINO in Congress and the Senate.
What you suggest would be messy for a lot of people, but I like most of the ideas.
We had a discussion about that very thing last week I agree we have no manufacturing base left they effectively trashed our entire workforce leaving it only as a service economy pretty much. But I think that was part of the plan for them to bring in their New World Order of serfs.
LLS
I agree, at this point, tax cuts are not going to get people back to work. But fear and insecurity isn’t going to get people optimistic again either.
I think some of this is a mind funk, and some is mistrust of Wall St, government and big ballers who control everything.
You’re right - tax cuts won’t do it. The GOP continues to sing from the songsheet when the music has stopped. Now, some people are truly impressive when singing a capella, but the GOP ain’t them.
Any solution here MUST include reducing the number of people in the workforce. That means eliminating H1 visas, ejecting illegal aliens and putting a stop to off-shoring of jobs. The latter might be addressed to some extent by tax legislation, but the first two have to be addressed through immigration policy.
Just to keep up with labor pool growth through immigration and population growth, this country has to create in excess of 100K jobs per month, every month, just to stay at the status quo, never mind result in rising wages.
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