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On the epidemiology of influenza
Virology Journal ^ | 02.25.2008 | John Cannell et al

Posted on 11/18/2009 3:56:37 PM PST by Chickensoup

Abstract The epidemiology of influenza swarms with incongruities, incongruities exhaustively detailed by the late British epidemiologist...propose a parsimonious theory explaining why influenza is, ..."seemingly unmindful of traditional infectious disease behavioral patterns." Recent discoveries indicate vitamin D upregulates the endogenous antibiotics of innate immunity and suggest that the incongruities explored by Hope-Simpson may be secondary to the epidemiology of vitamin D deficiency. We identify – and attempt to explain – nine influenza conundrums: (1) Why is influenza both seasonal and ubiquitous and where is the virus between epidemics? (2) Why are the epidemics so explosive? (3) Why do they end so abruptly? (4) What explains the frequent coincidental timing of epidemics in countries of similar latitude? (5) Why is the serial interval obscure? (6) Why is the secondary attack rate so low? (7) Why did epidemics in previous ages spread so rapidly, despite the lack of modern transport? (8) Why does experimental inoculation of seronegative humans fail to cause illness in all the volunteers? (9) Why has influenza mortality of the aged not declined as their vaccination rates increased? We review recent discoveries about vitamin D's effects on innate immunity, human studies attempting sick-to-well transmission, naturalistic reports of human transmission, studies of serial interval, secondary attack rates, and relevant animal studies. We hypothesize that two factors explain the nine conundrums: vitamin D's seasonal and population effects on innate immunity, and the presence of a subpopulation of "good infectors." If true, our revision of Edgar Hope-Simpson's theory has profound implications for the prevention of influenza.

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: epidemic; epidemiology; flu; influenza
Interesting infomrmation on flu virus epidemiology and solar radiation and Vit D.
1 posted on 11/18/2009 3:56:40 PM PST by Chickensoup
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To: Chickensoup

I’m a Vitamin D fan. Especially if you aren’t getting much sun, which most of us don’t get much of in the winter. Even if you get out in the sun it won’t do any good if you’re all covered up.

Since I also need calcium, I take calcium citrate tablets with Vitamin D, which is also needed for the body to absorb calcium.

2 posted on 11/18/2009 4:15:47 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Cicero

The article is interesting and has great information

3 posted on 11/18/2009 4:24:42 PM PST by Chickensoup (SHRUGGING shrugging SHRUGGING shrugging SHRUGGING shrugging SHRUGGING)
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To: Chickensoup
The money quote:
A low dose (800 IU/day) not only reduced reported incidence, it abolished the seasonality of reported colds and flu. A higher dose (2000 IU/day), given during the last year of their trial, virtually eradicated all reports of colds or flu. Recent discoveries about vitamin D's mechanism of action in combating infections led Science News to suggest that vitamin D is the "antibiotic vitamin" due primarily to its robust effects on innate immunity.

4 posted on 11/18/2009 4:52:11 PM PST by Procyon (To the global warming fanatics the problem is too many people and the solution is genocide.)
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To: Procyon

Good encapsulation

5 posted on 11/18/2009 5:21:03 PM PST by Chickensoup (SHRUGGING shrugging SHRUGGING shrugging SHRUGGING shrugging SHRUGGING)
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To: Chickensoup

Yes, agreed. I’ve read several others earlier, but I’ve sent this one out to my list. Thorough and informative.

And I’m taking 2100 IU a day, because that seems to be what is indicated. Some people say 3000 IU, but I’m not sure about that.

6 posted on 11/18/2009 5:22:03 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Chickensoup

Very good. Thanks.

Here’s one I haven’t seen addressed: How much vitamin D can we store and for how long?

7 posted on 11/18/2009 5:22:10 PM PST by decimon
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To: Chickensoup
Thank you for posting this. I have been taking about 4000 iu of D3 for a while and will continue to take it.

I think supplementation would be essential to anyone on statins since it reduces cholesterol which is used by the body to make both Vitamin D and CoQ10.

8 posted on 11/18/2009 6:17:26 PM PST by Pete from Shawnee Mission
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To: decimon
I don't know if this fully answers your question, but it appears it is self-limiting after 20,000 i.u. according to

"Built-in Toxicity Protection What prevents tissue calcitriol levels from getting too high? Something has to or your tissues would make too much. One thing that helps is called catabolism, or breakdown. The more calcitriol made, the more metabolized and excreted in the bile. But that does not prevent too much from being made in the first place. Let us go backwards for a minute. One possibe way of limiting calcitriol in the tissues is by limiting the amount of calcidiol in the blood. That is, maybe the chemical reaction that turns cholecalciferol into calcidiol in the liver is rate-limited, or has a negative feedback loop? No, it does not. In normal humans, the more cholecalciferol in the blood, the more calcidiol the liver makes. So, in the natural state, what limits the amount of cholecalciferol in the blood? What is the rate-limiting step for the production of calcitriol in the tissues? Your skin! How much you go into the sun. Remember, the body has a fool-proof method of limiting cholecalciferol. Only about 20,000 units can be made in the skin every day because the same sunlight that makes it, begins to break it down. After your skin turns dark (tans) even less cholecalciferol is made, maybe 10,000 units. Humans have a natural system in the skin that prevents toxicity. Another way of saying this is that the rate-limiting step for the production of calcitriol in the tissues is your behavior: how often you go into the sun or how much cholecalciferol you take as a supplement. This makes vitamin D unique."

9 posted on 11/18/2009 6:20:16 PM PST by TennesseeGirl
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To: TennesseeGirl


That’s good but I don’t think it answers my question. I understand that a certain amount of ‘excess’ vitamin D (excess of what the body immediately needs) is stored in fat cells. If that is so then I’d like to know how much can be stored and for how long it can be stored before the body uses it up.

Say I spend a week sunbathing and the next week indoors. How much vitamin D might I store in the first week and will I use up that store in the second week? That’s the kind of info I’ve not seen.

10 posted on 11/18/2009 6:33:41 PM PST by decimon
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To: Chickensoup

Wow...thanks for posting. Very interesting...

11 posted on 11/18/2009 6:40:35 PM PST by Pharmboy (The Stone Age did not end because they ran out of stones...)
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