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Financial And Economic Situation Could Get Ugly Fast
The Market Oracle ^ | 11-21-2009 | Mike Whitney

Posted on 11/21/2009 9:04:18 PM PST by blam

Financial And Economic Situation Could Get Ugly Fast

Economics / Economic Stimulus
Nov 21, 2009 - 03:27 AM
By: Mike_Whitney

Things could get ugly fast. With the Democrats backing-off on a second round of stimulus, the Fed signaling an end to quantitative easing, and Obama moaning about rising deficits; there's a good chance that the stumbling recovery could turn into another sharp plunge. Bank lending is shrinking, consumers spending is off, housing prices are falling, unemployment is soaring and the wholesale credit markets are in a shambles. This isn't the time to slash government support in the name of "fiscal responsibility". Obama needs to ignore the gloomsters and alarmists and pay attention to the Nobel laureates like Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. They're the guys who know how to steer the ship to safe water.

But there are troubling signs that Obama has joined the ranks of the deficit hawks and is planning a policy-reversal that will pitch the economy into a nosedive. Here's what he said on his tour through Asia:

"I think it is important to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession."

So it's true. Obama has aligned himself with the faux-prophets and dollar demagogues who think that the end is nigh. But trimming the deficits now (when they should be expanding) will lead to a viscous cycle of debt deflation that will push-down asset prices, increase defaults, force more layoffs, slow consumer spending, lower earnings and send the economy into a downward spiral. The president is paving the way to a double-dip recession, a slump that could be worse than the first.

Has Obama perused the jobless figures lately? Has he noticed the Fed shoving more than a $1 trillion under the collapsing housing market with no sign of improvement? Has anyone told our blinkered accountant-in-chief that the entire financial system is propped-up with $11.4 trillion of dodgy scaffolding that could buckle in the first big gust?

Obama has either taken leave of his senses or he's spending too much time listening to the cheerless Jeremiahs on the Internet. He needs break their spell and seek the counsel of the experts who get paid to crunch the numbers---real economists. Cutting government spending and raising taxes--the two ways that deficits are paid off--is the fast-track to disaster. Don't go there.

If Obama needs more proof that the economy is still flatlining, he should thumb through Fed chair Ben Bernanke's speech to the Economic Club of New York which was delivered on Tuesday. The presentation was a sobering snapshot of lingering depression with precious few glimmers of light. Here's an excerpt:

"The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak, and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible....How the economy will evolve in 2010 and beyond is less certain....

[snip]


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: bho44; economy; obama; recession; recovery; stimulus
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1 posted on 11/21/2009 9:04:19 PM PST by blam
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To: blam

This guy is bitchin because they are not expending spending am I reading this right


2 posted on 11/21/2009 9:07:28 PM PST by Flavius
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To: blam

ping


3 posted on 11/21/2009 9:07:44 PM PST by unkus
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To: blam
The Great Economic Stimulus Debate Of 2009

Economics / Economic Stimulus
Nov 21, 2009 - 03:12 AM
By: Mike Whitney

"Crybabies need not apply"
Barack Obama has decided to push the economy back into recession, and no one can figure out why. Perhaps the impressionable Obama has come under the spell of the deficit hawks and crystal gazers who see Armageddon around every corner.
Or maybe he's thrown-in with the snappish Marc Faber whose dire predictions of hyperinflation are about as cheery as Hieronymus Bosch's vision of Hell.
Whatever the reason, the President has done a hasty volte-face and decided that trimming the deficits in the middle of a severe economic downturn is the way to go. Here's what Obama said just days ago on his Asia tour:

"I think it is important to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession."

[snip]

4 posted on 11/21/2009 9:09:34 PM PST by blam
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To: blam

I live in MA and want to sell my house and get the F out of here.....And i can’t.

They frigging trapped me.
2/3 through my mortgage and my equity is now crap.
I lost at least a 100 grand in value so far.
What a waste of time.
I shoulda just been a bum.
Woulda been a lot easier.


5 posted on 11/21/2009 9:11:31 PM PST by mowowie
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To: blam

Announcing that he will not longer persue job stifling health care takeovers, cap and trade, and card check for the remainder of his first term, and Obama can create job growth right now, as employers will have a lower cost of hiring new employees. Its free too.


6 posted on 11/21/2009 9:13:14 PM PST by Vince Ferrer
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To: blam
Boy this one's full of contradictions! I liked this part:

"viscous cycle of debt deflation"

Maybe you fluid mechanics experts out there can explain what the viscosity of the debt cycle has to do with anything....

hh

What good are spell checkers if they don't know what you mean?
7 posted on 11/21/2009 9:13:26 PM PST by hoosier hick (Note to RINOs: We need a choice, not an echo....Barry Goldwater)
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To: blam

Where is the “barf”?


8 posted on 11/21/2009 9:13:29 PM PST by Parmy
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To: blam

Isn’t “Financial” and “Economic” redundant?


9 posted on 11/21/2009 9:13:33 PM PST by Blogger
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To: blam
This isn't the time to slash government support in the name of "fiscal responsibility".

Yes, Mike, it is.

No matter WHEN the pretending stops, it will be ugly. The more quickly it's done, the more quickly the real recover can begin.

Let failures fail.

10 posted on 11/21/2009 9:13:54 PM PST by TChris ("Hello", the politician lied.)
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To: blam
But trimming the deficits now (when they should be expanding) will lead to a viscous cycle of debt deflation ...

How viscous? 20w? 30w? 50w?

11 posted on 11/21/2009 9:13:59 PM PST by TigersEye (Sarah Palin 2010 - We Can't Afford To Wait)
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To: blam

If the Democrats get their Mengelecare passed, I believe the stock market wil react violently.
Down.


12 posted on 11/21/2009 9:16:40 PM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: TChris

recover = recovery


13 posted on 11/21/2009 9:17:15 PM PST by TChris ("Hello", the politician lied.)
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To: blam

the simple solution to economic problems...
get out of Afghanistan


14 posted on 11/21/2009 9:20:31 PM PST by element92
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To: Flavius

“Here’s what [Obama]said on his tour through Asia:”

I think if this guy just understood that Obama is a liar and says the opposite of what he will do - he’ll be a lot happier.


15 posted on 11/21/2009 9:21:39 PM PST by 21twelve (Drive Reality out with a pitchfork if you want , it always comes back.)
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To: Flavius

Exactly, when he recommend following the advice of the absurdly over-rated economists Stiglitz and Krugman, that tells us all we need to know. The message is that Obama isn’t expanding the government enough.


16 posted on 11/21/2009 9:22:38 PM PST by LifeComesFirst (http://rw-rebirth.blogspot.com/)
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To: Blogger

No, it is not. Economics is not necessarily about finance (many economists don’t know much about financial matters, for example), and you can be an expert on financial matters and still be a dunce on basic economics (see Warren Buffet for example).


17 posted on 11/21/2009 9:24:28 PM PST by LifeComesFirst (http://rw-rebirth.blogspot.com/)
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To: blam
The Pending Financial, Economic, Political And Social Collapse Of The United States
18 posted on 11/21/2009 9:28:52 PM PST by blam
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To: hoosier hick

LMAO


19 posted on 11/21/2009 9:30:34 PM PST by Lumper20
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To: Vince Ferrer

He can’t create job growth right now by backing off on his agenda, but if he announced this, and ceased all other idiotic proposals for, oh, six months.... the business sector would likely come out of their turtle shells and start believing that they have a stable environment in which to do business.

Which they don’t right now.


20 posted on 11/21/2009 9:54:35 PM PST by NVDave
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To: Blogger

No, not really. Think of them as analogous to “tactical” and “strategic” (respectively) in military science...


21 posted on 11/21/2009 9:57:10 PM PST by NVDave
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To: element92
the simple solution to economic problems...
get out of Afghanistan

I have a simpler solution, one that will never be used by the U.S.A.

Conquest of inferior nations and reaping of the spoils. Take over the oil fields of the Middle East by force. Meet any retaliation with brutal suppression. I know, it's not a P.C. thing to do. But it has worked for empires in the past. You think the Muslims of the world are going to be kind to us when we're overrun?

22 posted on 11/21/2009 9:59:33 PM PST by roadcat
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To: roadcat

the US is paying the living expenses
of millions of ragheads in the
middle east


23 posted on 11/21/2009 10:23:54 PM PST by element92
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To: blam
"But there are troubling signs that Obama has joined the ranks of the deficit hawks and is planning a policy-reversal that will pitch the economy into a nosedive. Here's what he said on his tour through Asia"

Sounds to me like this rocket scientist hasn't figured out that Obama's a two faced liar.

24 posted on 11/21/2009 10:31:09 PM PST by Psycho_Bunny (ALSO SPRACH ZEROTHUSTRA)
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To: element92

I know. It sickens me that we’re giving our money to aliens overseas without getting anything beneficial in exchange. Our government should cut them off and think about helping Americans first. That’s why I say seize their oil fields and other assets, and use that to better our lives here.


25 posted on 11/21/2009 10:47:45 PM PST by roadcat
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To: blam
"Barack Obama has decided to push the economy back into recession"

Would Hitler have been elected and allowed to do the things he did if times were good in Germany at the time?

People do not sacrifice their Liberty in good times.

26 posted on 11/21/2009 11:28:40 PM PST by LZ_Bayonet (There's Always Something.............And there's always something worse!)
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To: blam

Obama called 1-900-CREATE-A-CRISIS. He means to do this.


27 posted on 11/22/2009 12:16:56 AM PST by Clock King (There's no way to fix D.C.)
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To: blam

2nd wave of a tsunami is worse.


28 posted on 11/22/2009 1:01:40 AM PST by American Constitutionalist (There is no civility in the way the Communist/Marxist want to destroy the USA)
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To: TChris

recover = recovery = hangover that won’t stop.


29 posted on 11/22/2009 1:03:41 AM PST by American Constitutionalist (There is no civility in the way the Communist/Marxist want to destroy the USA)
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To: TChris
"Let failures fail."

I find it amusing that Liberals who are so vested in Evolution and "survival of the fittest" do a 180 when it comes to the financial world.

Markets when left alone are self correcting, its when government starts stirring things up that the really bad stuff starts happening!

30 posted on 11/22/2009 1:07:52 AM PST by Mad Dawgg (If you're going to deny my 1st Amendment rights then I must proceed to the next one...)
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To: blam
oh for crying out loud......this guy is moronic.....

hey mister....I'd rather have this depression go deeper than be a slave or have my kids or grandkids be slaves...

31 posted on 11/22/2009 3:42:51 AM PST by cherry
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To: mowowie

Same thing in Florida with respect to home equity. At least there is no state income tax here, property tax increases for resident owners are restricted, and the weather is generally very nice.


32 posted on 11/22/2009 4:05:15 AM PST by Soul of the South (When times are tough the tough get going.)
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To: Flavius
This guy is bitchin because they are not expending spending am I reading this right

This buffoon is an economic genius!! Everyone with a shred of intelligence knows the way out of debt is to borrow and spend more money.

33 posted on 11/22/2009 5:54:23 AM PST by dearolddad
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To: Lancey Howard
I'm really wondering if it will? The little guy's market has been long since over. The one’s in it now are ...who?

The one’s in bed with the government. Contemplate how they set this all up over the course of the past few months.

Banks under the bailout and in some cases not are in the hands of the government.

Essentially all credit/loans are through the government. They didn't trim out the things that caused the downturn, they pumped them up.

Who is in bed with the Congress critters on medical stuff and keep in mind it's not just medical reform, it is insurance reform. AIG was financial insurance, now medical insurance, FDIC insurance. We're watching everything else except the insider insurance circles.

Watch the market will go up on the false premises of incoming stability. We're paying ahead in the bill. The incoming funds from fee's, penalties, taxes will appear to stabilize the markets until 2013/2014 and then it will all crash as the mandates kick-in.

If they don't get the medical reform, we crash now. I know it all sounds pretty convoluted, but if the democrat bet is medical actually creates the false (bubble)stability in the markets; 0bama appears to save the day for the election cycle starting in 2011. (Remember the theft infusion starts immediately, that is the reason for the push to get this through.)

34 posted on 11/22/2009 6:12:26 AM PST by EBH (it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute a new Government)
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To: blam

It says at the bottom of the article he’s a Libertarian? And he thinks Krugman is right?


35 posted on 11/22/2009 6:21:54 AM PST by brianr10
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To: blam
...pay attention to the Nobel laureates like Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman.

boobyprize

Zero is also a Nobel prize laureate and if those other two boobs think you can spend your way out of debt or tax your way into prosperity they have equally earned their booby prize too!

36 posted on 11/22/2009 7:44:45 AM PST by Nateman (If liberals aren't screaming you're doing it wrong.)
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To: blam

kookoo. koookoooo. koooo kooo.


37 posted on 11/22/2009 1:04:55 PM PST by Eleutheria5 (www.publishedauthors.net/benmaxwell/index.html, http://sites.google.com/site/thevuzvuz/)
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To: hoosier hick
That's easy.

The shear stress is related to the change in velocity across the path of fluid flow--

The economic analogy would be of course the differential rate of change of the velocity of money across economic strata.

Now the Reynolds number is a measure of the ratio of inertial forces (inertial, "holding back", conservative, such as FR or Conservatives4Palin) to viscious (SEIU, Daily KOS) and other progressive forces

Again, the economic analogy is the number of Republican- and conservative- leaning blogs and emails and phone calls to the local Cloward-Piven coefficient.

The socioeconmic Reynolds number, unlike the dimensionless fluid dynamics one, is expressed as the thickness (in millimeters) of the tinfoil hat.

Cheers!

38 posted on 11/22/2009 1:06:41 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: blam; Wonder Warthog; snarks_when_bored
*PING* to post #38.

Cheers!

39 posted on 11/22/2009 1:23:03 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
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To: blam
Obama needs to ignore the gloomsters and alarmists and pay attention to the Nobel laureates like Joe Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. They're the guys who know how to steer the ship to safe water.

A) Paul Krugman is a Nobel laureate??? Do they just hand those things out to anybody these days?

B) I'd feel a lot better if the ship they were steering wasn't the S.S. Minnow.

40 posted on 11/22/2009 1:25:17 PM PST by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all. -- Texas Eagle)
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To: mowowie

That 100 grand wasn’t real, anyway — it was just a temporary artificial blip.


41 posted on 11/22/2009 1:32:58 PM PST by expatpat
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To: Flavius

Yep.


42 posted on 11/22/2009 1:33:29 PM PST by PghBaldy (James Earl Ray was just stressed when he killed Martin Luther King Jr.)
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To: Texas Eagle

Not to anybody — you have to also be a liberal.


43 posted on 11/22/2009 1:35:48 PM PST by expatpat
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To: Nateman

Obama and his pal Oprah believe that to change America you have to destroy it first.

He is dumb enough to think you can spend your way out of debt, too.

This idiot is the chimp of the socialist party. Chump, sorry.


44 posted on 11/22/2009 1:38:20 PM PST by Lumper20
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To: blam

He wants to bait the Chinese into dumping the dollar. He’s stupider than Krugman


45 posted on 11/22/2009 1:40:52 PM PST by Nonstatist
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To: blam

Sure...why not spend 4 or 5 trillion more! Oops...I guess perhaps it’s because no one is going to loan it to us.

Health care will fail if it is not reversed simply because there is no money. The reality of California will soon be the reality of the US.


46 posted on 11/22/2009 1:42:51 PM PST by HarleyD
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To: EBH
Hi EBH:

I just want to see if I got this right:

Essentially all credit/loans are through the government.

No doubt about that.

it's not just medical reform, it is insurance reform. AIG was financial insurance, now medical insurance, FDIC insurance.

I've been wondering, who gets Blue Cross Blue Shield? They seem pretty big, big enough to resist a takeover.

the market will go up on the false premises of incoming stability

When the government takes over and insures these corporations against bankruptcy, businessmen will feel safer and invest more? And in the short-term fees, added taxes and penalties will create the mirage that the government can cover these obligations?

then it will all crash as the mandates kick-in

You mean when government starts paying it's insurance and health care claims?

If I've got this right, I don't get it. In the midst of a recession, government starts sucking money out of consumer's pockets? Wouldn't that crash the economy before 0 has enough time to build his house of cards?

I'm sure this administration wants to set itself up as a white knight during the next election. I'm paranoid that 0 and Rahm are putting things in place to stage a political coupe. "Never let a crises go to waste". But to do this, they'll need to get over the short-term consequences--when people read their tax returns.

47 posted on 11/22/2009 1:54:46 PM PST by tsomer
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To: blam
He only knows how to attempt to redistribute the wealth, spend, spend spend, tax, tax, tax and try to pass social programs with exorbitant price tags.
48 posted on 11/22/2009 1:54:46 PM PST by mojitojoe (“Medicine is the keystone of the arch of socialism.” - Vladimir Lenin)
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To: blam

Things are going to get ugly Forrest Gump could figure that out but this article seems like a very sly way of pushing a second stimulus package. What do they need another 7 something billion to fund Obama’s slush funds, ACORN and all of his buds?


49 posted on 11/22/2009 2:09:34 PM PST by Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!
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To: blam

On paper guys like this have a point to some extent. But they never, ever realize that government spending comes with one really big issue:

The government picks and chooses the winners and losers. And nine times out of ten, politicians will choose to stimulate businesses that are owned or controlled by the special interests that help them get elected.

Politicians don’t know how to run the economy. So expecting them to properly spend trillions of dollars in order to jump start the economy is ludicrous.


50 posted on 11/22/2009 2:51:44 PM PST by NotSoModerate
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