Posted on 11/25/2009 9:56:02 AM PST by steve-b
Mickey Kaus alerts us to the latest Greenberg-Carville's Democracy Corps poll suggesting that 6% of likely voters might vote for Lou Dobbs in a Romney-Obama race in 2012. Even tossing a hypothetical Green party candidacy by Ralph Nader into the mix, their numbers raise the possibility that a Dobbs candidacy might well take a serious bite out of the Republican vote.
As a third-party candidate, Dobbs does bear some resemblance to Ross Perot in 1992: he's focused on nationalism issues (trade, immigration) rather than moral issues; his style is secular rather than religious; he speaks in specifics that create the impression of knowledgeability; and he channels his anger in highly telegenic ways. The perfect candidate for the unemployed southern California engineer.
The threat from Dobbs underscores a point I made in Comeback: immigration is to the 2000s what crime was to the 1960s. The risk that racists might exploit the issue did not make the issue inherently racist. Just as Nixon took the crime issue from Wallace, Republicans have to begin planning now to take the immigration issue from Dobbs.
Some guidelines.
1) The issue is not just illegal immigration. The problems associated with current immigration policy – very large numbers, very low skills – are associated with the legal dimensions of current policy too.2) It's time for Republicans to revisit the actual economics of immigration rather than the slogans. It's often assumed that immigration is economically beneficial. That's no longer true, anyway it's not true for the host population. (Obviously immigration is beneficial to the immigrants themselves, or they would not do it.) The gains to the U.S. economy from current policy are vanishingly tiny. The costs to state governments are surprisingly huge: last I checked, immigration costs every California household $1200 a year in higher state and local taxes.
3) Immigration should be conceived not as an “ethnic” issue, but as a human capital issue. Inadequate schools and low-skilled migration are together pointing the U.S. to a future workforce (as the ETS has warned) of dramatically lower skills and even literacy.
4) Here's the toughest nut for Republicans to swallow. We're going to have to discard the old language that the Bush economy was the “greatest story never told” and squarely face up to how bad the economic record of 2001-2007 was for most Americans. We can't put immigration as one cause of the disappointment while denying that the disappointment existed in the first place.
Romney?
Just about anything from that ass Frum’s site is garbage. Why try to increase traffic for him?
And David, you have reclaim your credibility and “who gives a crap what I think” value from the gutter I just spat in.
LOL. The GOP is the party of Amnesty. It will take alot to convince 'me' that they actually care about the border.
David Frum has wasted a lot of his time bashing Sarah Palin. While I don’t understand his antipathy to Palin, I am glad he has found a legit issue upon which to focus his talents. He’s a sharp guy, and I hope he continues in this vein.
Is is absolutely clear that Dobbs in the race would siphon votes from a GOP candidate only (regardless if GOP candidate is Palin/Romney/Huckabee etc).
He would likely guarantee Obama win (even 3% support for Dobbs would probably be enough for Obama to win).
Naturally, GOP should be more in line with the voters (and law) wrt illegal immirgation. I really hope Dobbs won’t start that presidential campaign lunacy. Senate run might even work out for him.
I guess what Frum is suggesting is that the GOP join the democrats in silencing opposition to our open border policies.
Clearly this is the new meme from the Left. Time Magazine is calling it the decade from hell because the economy was so bad.
DJIA at 14,000. Unemployment at 4.5%. Federal deficit at $180B.
Bad times indeed.
frum= worthless
I won’t get on board until it is made clear that there should be NO AMNESTY of ANY KIND (including “path”, “earned”, “touch-back” (Pence), “not blanket” (FDT), “not total” (Palin), etc.) for ANY (they’re ALL criminals)ILLEGAL ALIENS, with ATTRITION THROUGH ENFORCEMENT OF OUR CURRENT IMMIGRATION LAWS the ONLY acceptable plan for fighting it.
And we are now paying the price of that bubble. Fed Fairy dust.
bfl
Frum is a POS like Newt, McCain, Graham-nesty. No amnesty - no more freebies for illegals.
Please note that the neocon Frum ignores Dobbs conversion to a hard-line Ron Paul foreign policy of bringing home all the troops from Obama’s wars.
“LOL. The GOP is the party of Amnesty. It will take alot to convince ‘me’ that they actually care about the border. “
Elephants and Asses, screwing the masses....
All part of the squatter support squad.
Are you serious? Look at where we are now. That economy was a house of cards and we all know it.
Sure the way to stop that is to do a Dobbs Palin ticket.
But you almost make the point --
2001 - 2007 many Americans bought houses and watched the value rise. They saw their 401K's increase in a very satisfactory manner. Plentiful jobs, strong dollar.
The Left calls this the decade from hell.
So, now we will pay for that period of irrational exuberance. Taxes will increases, home values are plummeting, investments are dwindling, and jobs are hard to find.
The Left calls this "a big improvement".
Blame and recrimination are separate topics. The idea is that people suffered under Bush and will enjoy happy days under Obama. It is patently false.
If the republican party runs Romney they can be sure they won’t be getting my vote. Rather I vote for a third party candidate or not depends then upon that candidate. No more voting for the lesser of two evils. The republican party is going to have to win my vote, not just assume it.
Well you posted this crap. Do you agree with Frum or not?
It's telling that Frum has, er, **fond** dreams about Mitt and despises Sarah.
Lou Dobbs is not a Republican.
Well, Dave, Lou’s position is now apparently, “You know all that stuff I said on CNN? Just kidding.” Tell me you knew.
Of course it was, but somehow we managed to keep those cards more or less stacked up nicely for 60 years, until the Democrats took over in 2007 with their socialist agenda.
The “house of cards” was primarily built on the idea of relatively unfettered capitalism. When it became clear that we were turning socialist, everybody bailed and the economy tanked.
I would add a fifth, assimilation. We need to assimilate and Americanize legal immigrants and their children.
Look, that’s not at all what happened. The basics are as follows: people qualified for mortgages they had no business assuming, and the repeal of glass-steagall allowed banks to bundle these mortgages in complex packages. People started to default on these insane mortgages and the banks were stuck with worthless assets. Increased money supply and easy mortgages fueled this debacle.
I must admit I am a little confused by Frum. What does he expect the same “institutional GOP” that was pushing for amnesty less than 3 years ago to now flip and support strong border policies? Does Frum not know that McCain and Graham were the big pushers of free citizenship? Frum is afraid of Sarah, but thinks the McCains/Grahams are going to go hard core and defend our borders. This guys is smoking something.
Things were fine until the Dems took control in 2006, emasculated the Bush Administration and drove the economy into the dumper.
If 3rd Party is to be—it should be focused on three things:
A) Abortion B) Closed Borders C) National Defense
Toss in limited Government and Anti-PC and Anti-Global Warming and this is a powerful cocktail. The Republicans better clean up their “Big-Tent” act and do what’s right or soon they will be the 3rd Party.
Because that’s what steve-b does. He’s not for us but against us.
Don’t forget crime rates:
AZ Maricopa County 2008: Illegal aliens down 30%. Total felonies down 18.5%
Thx Sheriff Arpaio!
Talk issues, not personalities!
Only teenage girls should be so emotional.
If any Republican had taken a stand on this issue, we wouldn’t have Obama now, so don’t hold your breath.
The GOP can go to hell. It’s run by corporate elitists who export jobs and import misery. The GOP is so terrified of being called racist they won’t stand up for American workers. Frum is such a liberal fascist mole, constantly nagging the GOP to become more indistinguishable from the genuine article. Message to Frum: the GOP is fully capable of betraying conservative values without your tiresome tips.
"So far, so good," said the man, as he passed the first floor on his way to the ground. "They said jumping from a twenty-story building would kill me, but it's obviously not true!"
If "talking personalities" = :emotional," then you're calling our Founding Fathers (who believed in a republic of elected officials rather than a pure democracy of electorate beliefs on issues) "teenage girls."
With his lack of response to my question, you’re probably right.
I just wish we would talk about the issues instead of becoming emotional and getting distracted by personal insults. That is the liberal method of getting us off track and disbursing our energy before we accomplish our conservative goals.
The goal is no more illegal aliens. The goal is not proving that Frum is a wanker. Everyone here knows that unless they are infiltrators.
This is one thing people haven't realized - leveraged investments become bad investments when govt goes socialist. The meltdown wasnt inevitable, but a result of worse business conditions due to the Democrats' actions.
Gotcha. I thought you were referring to candidates’ personalities.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.