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Drop in Unemployment Could Have Little Impact on Default Numbers: Analysts
Default Servicing News ^ | 12/04/09 | CARRIE BAY

Posted on 12/05/2009 5:18:33 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster

Drop in Unemployment Could Have Little Impact on Default Numbers: Analysts

12/04/2009BY: CARRIE BAY

he unemployment rate dropped in November, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday, as companies shed the fewest number of jobs since the recession kicked in two years ago. Government statistics show that last month, the jobless rate edged down to 10.0 percent, falling from the 26-year-high 10.2 percent hit in October.

Only 11,000 jobs were lost in November, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast a loss of as much as 130,000, consistent with the average of 135,000 job cuts seen in the prior three months. The employment market still has a long way to go, though, to recover from the damage done since the start of the recession in December 2007, when the jobless rate was 4.9 percent.

The growing consensus within the mortgage industry is that unemployment is now the primary driver pushing delinquency numbers higher, so the upbeat November labor report is likely a hopeful sign that the pace of loan deterioration could subside sooner rather than later. But analysts at Amherst Securities Group say their research tells a different story.

The firm is a holding company for financial firms working with institutional investors of mortgage-related assets, and a study from its head of residential debt, Laurie Goodman, says borrowers who have been hit hard by falling home prices and owe more than their home is worth are more likely to fall behind on their mortgage payments than homeowners who lose their job.

According to Goodman, borrowers who are underwater with combined loan-to-value (LTV) ratios greater than 120 percent pose a higher delinquency risk.

(Excerpt) Read more at dsnews.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: default; underwater; unemployment

1 posted on 12/05/2009 5:18:34 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; PAR35; AndyJackson; Thane_Banquo; nicksaunt; MadLibDisease; happygrl; ...

Ping!


2 posted on 12/05/2009 5:19:00 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I suspect the numbers to increase after the holidays... don't businesses usually get a bit busier around this time due to christmas sales? This decrease in the unemployment is just a bubble effect, or reverse bubble, effect... so is this really "good news?" ...not really


3 posted on 12/05/2009 5:26:38 AM PST by MajorThomas (Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.)
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To: MajorThomas
Yes, seasonal factor is at play now. Coming new year, the unemployment number may go up. Or they massage the data furiously to make sure it would never go over 10%.:-)
Still the raw number of job loss would be going up, data manipulation or not.
4 posted on 12/05/2009 5:30:33 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

The unemployment statistics are obviously broken. Logically, if 10,000 jobs (net, I assume) are lost how can the unemployment percentage drop? 1984 Gov’t math.


5 posted on 12/05/2009 5:34:59 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Related

http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-panzner-an-alternative-read-on-todays-bullish-jobs-data-2009-12

http://www.newsweek.com/id/225289


6 posted on 12/05/2009 5:43:06 AM PST by FromLori (FromLori)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Or they massage the data furiously to make sure it would never go over 10%.:-)

Exactly, why anyone trusts any numbers coming from this government in light of how diligently they are investigating climate fraud is beyond me.

Not to mention we have no idea where the TARP money went there is no accounting of it.

Or the money they are dumping into the sinking ships GM and Chrysler.

They are probably manipulating the hell out of everything hoping to hide the economic problems long enough to keep the democrats in power in 2010.

7 posted on 12/05/2009 5:45:35 AM PST by stig
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Yes, seasonal factor is at play now. Coming new year, the unemployment number may go up. Or they massage the data furiously to make sure it would never go over 10%.:-) Still the raw number of job loss would be going up, data manipulation or not.

Come January, there will be a triple whami. 1) The seasonal workers will get axed. 2) The retail stores that had a horrible Christmas season will have layoffs of full-time workers + some will simply close their doors. 3) Although they won't be reflected in the unemployment numbers, there will be a fair amount of college graduates (graduating after having to take an extra semester) that will not have a lot of success finding a job.

8 posted on 12/05/2009 5:52:13 AM PST by Go Gordon
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To: TigerLikesRooster

My favorite aspect of the media’s reporting of this “economic miracle” was their shameless assertion that the really good news was that so many of these new jobs were temp positions that usually lead to permanent positions. ROFLMAO . . . how
dumb do they think we are?


9 posted on 12/05/2009 5:56:30 AM PST by TheVitaminPress (as goes the Second Amendment . . . so goes the Constitution.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I agree...


10 posted on 12/05/2009 5:59:01 AM PST by MajorThomas (Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.)
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To: TheVitaminPress
Actually it is worse than that.
Whenever I watch CNN, I realize that they are the true believers. They must really believe what they are saying. Maybe not all of them, but great majority of them. These people are scary: completely losing touch with reality.
11 posted on 12/05/2009 6:00:55 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

“...since the recession kicked in two years ago.”

This must be the new talking point. I see it in EVERY article I read on this mess. They’ll cover Barry’s arse until the day he’s gone!

Bush’s Fault! *SMIRK*


12 posted on 12/05/2009 6:20:50 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin ( "When you subsidize poverty and failure, you get more of both." - James Davidson)
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To: Paladin2
Logically, if 10,000 jobs (net, I assume) are lost how can the unemployment percentage drop?

Easy ... by removing 98,000 from the Civilian Labor Force.

Plus 291,00 were added to the Not in Labor Force Category.

Household Data
13 posted on 12/05/2009 6:23:08 AM PST by algernonpj (He who pays the piper . . .)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
So no use letting up our offensive. Keep hitting him until they feel their head is exploding. I want them all brain-dead.:-)
14 posted on 12/05/2009 6:24:45 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: algernonpj

The top level numbers are still inconsistent mathematically. I realize this has been going on as long as there has been a Dept of Labor, but believe that they need to get their top story straight.


15 posted on 12/05/2009 6:29:26 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
"Bush’s Fault! *SMIRK* "

The whole mess needs to be dropped off at Reid and PElosi's front doorsteps.

16 posted on 12/05/2009 6:30:42 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: TigerLikesRooster

It is chilling.


17 posted on 12/05/2009 6:41:57 AM PST by TheVitaminPress (as goes the Second Amendment . . . so goes the Constitution.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

I’m sure that was the intention when they introduced new metrics by which recessions were defined . . . so they could retroactively declare the event and in the process indemnify their precious O’ Duce if he got into office.


18 posted on 12/05/2009 6:44:59 AM PST by TheVitaminPress (as goes the Second Amendment . . . so goes the Constitution.)
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To: Paladin2

Another freeper mentioned yesterday (not sure if it is accurate, but it made me take notice) that any businesses that laid off folks before Dec 31 of this year would be on the hook for 92 weeks of unemployment insurance. They said that it resets in Jan, back to the 26 weeks that is the norm. If that is the case, it would seem to me, that it would be prudent for employers to wait to drop the axe until after Christmas. It would be much less expensive in terms of continuing to pay employees for another few weeks to get to the 26 weeks of UI. What say you,freepers?


19 posted on 12/05/2009 6:47:41 AM PST by wombtotomb
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Our Annual Predictions For 2010. Good News And Bad News (Kitco)
20 posted on 12/05/2009 7:00:24 AM PST by blam
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To: TigerLikesRooster

It should be made clear by the would-be cheerleaders around the nation that there has been NO - repeat NO - decrease in unemployment. There has been a very modest arrest in the rates of NEWLY unemployed workers. It’s a very significant difference, and one which the Professional Liars in the media and government are eager to fudge.


21 posted on 12/05/2009 7:02:28 AM PST by Jack Hammer
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To: TigerLikesRooster
These folks say the real unemployment rate is 21.8%.

Investment Profit Vehicles For The Intensifying Financial And Economic Storm ("A Great Collapse")

22 posted on 12/05/2009 7:04:06 AM PST by blam
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To: wombtotomb

Employers pay state unemployment insurance. Their rates are liek group rates but your exposure is based upon valid claims and thus how you pay in the future.

You don’t pay for the unemployed persons claim directly, but the lenght and number of claimss eventually impact your cost.


23 posted on 12/05/2009 7:20:21 AM PST by KC Burke (...but He has made the trains run on time.)
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To: KC Burke

That would make sense then, that they would wait until Jan. to do major amounts of layoffs. Not only would it cost less if the amount of insurance was for 26 vs 92 weeks, but they would also have a whole year to have their rate not be affected by said layoffs....


24 posted on 12/05/2009 7:30:51 AM PST by wombtotomb
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To: Paladin2
"Bush’s Fault! *SMIRK* "
The whole mess needs to be dropped off at Reid and PElosi's front doorsteps.

Actually yes, it is very much "Bush's Fault!"

or if you prefer, it's the "fault" of bipartisan globalism that has been practiced for the last 20 years.
The corrupt weasels who run our government encouraged Americans to borrow money and consume more than we produce, essentially conducting a Trade War against our domestic industries, causing countless millions of jobs to be downsized and outsourced. Simultaneously, they flooded our labor force with illegal immigrants to depress domestic wages and benefits while futher burdening social services.

Now the chickens have come home to roost.

Prosperity will not return as long as Trade Policies continue to undermine our own domestic industries.
We cannot continue to consume more than we produce.

It's Bush 41's fault! (Poppy)
It's Klinton's fault!
It's SOB's fault! (The pathetic spawn of '41)
It's the Messiah's fault! (as if he has a snowball's chance of cleaning up W's mess anyway)

25 posted on 12/05/2009 7:42:15 AM PST by Willie Green (Go Pat Go!!!)
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