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US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo (in 2010?)
Telegraph ^ | 12/17/09 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Posted on 12/17/2009 8:55:42 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster

US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo

America’s Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt; both gold and the Japanese yen will crash; and China’s currency will devalue as bad loans catch up with the over-stretched banking system -- all in the course of 2010.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Published: 3:28PM GMT 17 Dec 2009

The annual “Outrageous Predictions” of Denmark’s Saxo Bank are not for the faint-hearted, though there is good news for some.

Chief economist David Karsboel thinks the US trade balance may go into surplus for the first time since the mid-1970s, benefiting from the delayed effects of the weak dollar.

Yields on sovereign bonds -- the goods ones, not the bonds of quasi-basket cases such as Club Med, the UK, or Japan -- will plummet as deflation raises its ugly head again later in 2010. The ten-year German Bund yield will fall to 2.25pc. “Bunds are the ultimate safe-haven if something goes wrong, perhaps in Greece. We may even see some safe-haven buying of US Treasuries as well, despite the irresponsible fiscal policies in the US,” he said.

The US Social Security fund will finally tip over, technically going bust. “Ever since the good years of the 1960s politicians have been taking the money and spending it instead of setting it aside for the Fund, but next year it will go into deficit for the first time as US demography turns. The Fund is going to need a bail-out, financed by higher taxes, more borrowing, or more printing.”

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2010; crash; saxo

1 posted on 12/17/2009 8:55:43 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; PAR35; AndyJackson; Thane_Banquo; nicksaunt; MadLibDisease; happygrl; ...

Ping!


2 posted on 12/17/2009 8:56:10 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I hate it when my bunds are sore............


3 posted on 12/17/2009 8:56:41 AM PST by Red Badger (Obama - The first ever elected lame duck..............)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
German Bund yield

Mmmm...German Bundt cake...


4 posted on 12/17/2009 9:01:25 AM PST by Night Hides Not (If Dick Cheney = Darth Vader, then Joe Biden = Dark Helmet)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

My place of employment laid off about 20 workers yesterday (out of ~200) largely because of the cost of pensions.


5 posted on 12/17/2009 9:01:47 AM PST by Past Your Eyes (You don't have to be ignorant to be a Democrat...but if you are...so what?)
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To: Red Badger

And I predict I’ll get a six pack of underwear for Christmas....


6 posted on 12/17/2009 9:02:34 AM PST by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: Red Badger

laugh of the day!!


7 posted on 12/17/2009 9:02:39 AM PST by 3D-JOY
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To: TigerLikesRooster
This paragraph is really scary. This is the direction the US is heading, thanks to Obama, Summers, and Geithner:

Saxo advises clients to dump 10-year Japanese bonds, doubting that current rates of 1.26pc are remotely sustainable at time when the public debt is exploding towards 227pc of GDP. “The yield is ridiculously low. The Japanese are no longer saving much, and have they hardly any economic growth,” he said.

8 posted on 12/17/2009 9:04:27 AM PST by Night Hides Not (If Dick Cheney = Darth Vader, then Joe Biden = Dark Helmet)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Gold has always scared me enough not to want to do it. There is no shortage of the stuff in the world and the only two real uses for it are for jewelry and electrical connections; the amount of the stuff stashed in Ft. Knox alone has to be billions of times what the human race would ever need for jewelry or electrical connectors. In other words, the value of the stuff is 100% related to psychology and psychiatry and zero percent related to economics or physics.

There is one other possible use for it in that it would be the ideal metal for waterfowl shot, half again denser than lead, soft, and totally inert...

9 posted on 12/17/2009 9:05:11 AM PST by wendy1946 ( The claim here is that)
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

>> And I predict I’ll get a six pack of underwear for Christmas....

You’re getting underwear? Damn. I’m getting socks. Again.

You rich people get under my skin.


10 posted on 12/17/2009 9:10:26 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: Past Your Eyes

I was let go about 6 months ago from a consulting gig.

I had retired with pension two years earlier. We have two companies that are on idle. We have drawn in our horns and will stay low until this president is gone from the white house.

We have decided to not purse any business until then. I am old but smart enough to just stay alive and well long enough to see him defeated.

We survived the dot com bust because we are a virtual company. We just do not contract when we do not have the work. Most of my contractors are moving to other countries where there is steady work. We only accept work with pre payment.

I agree with the prognoses and it could be much worse by then. The president will not like all the bad news that is coming and will blame us for it and then take on punishment of us as he has a propensity to do. What form that will take is up in the air but it will come.

Chicago politics will be tough on America. This is a very bad time and it will be much worse soon.


11 posted on 12/17/2009 9:12:06 AM PST by gibtx2 (End Tenure)
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To: wendy1946

Please send me any you may currently have in your possession — jewelry, coins, bars, fillings, whatever. I’ll pay for shipping.
Thank you.


12 posted on 12/17/2009 9:13:47 AM PST by Dick Bachert (THE 2010 ELECTIONS ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT IN OUR LIFETIMES! BE THERE!!!)
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To: wendy1946
If you keep reading, it does say that Saxo believes that gold would go up in the long-term. ($1500 in five years)

Gold is a portable entity which can be used for payment. Has been this way for a long time. Other commodities are either perishable or bulky or only localized circulation value. Besides, one may not be stay around in one place. Especially if the social order breaks down. While on the move, you cannot bring all you stuffs with you. You need means of payment along the way.

Of course, you are free to avoid gold by all means. There will be still many takers if banking institutions collapse or inflation is going out of control.

It is not about high return ultimately. It is about keeping your purchasing power and making it portable.

13 posted on 12/17/2009 9:15:11 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (LUV DIC -- L,U,V-shaped recession, Depression, Inflation, Collapse)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Who cares about that crap?

What's gonna happen with Tiger Woods?

14 posted on 12/17/2009 9:19:40 AM PST by Dr. Thorne (Buy Gold and Guns Now!)
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To: wendy1946

Human psychology is a huge part of economics.

One is much more likely to make a profit by studying human psychology than in analyzing the “intrinsic value” of things.

Why are ocean front properties worth so much more when they are far less practical? (Beach erosion, hurricanes, flooding, etc). Because psychologically, people like the view.


15 posted on 12/17/2009 9:19:55 AM PST by Truthsearcher
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To: Truthsearcher
Why are ocean front properties worth so much more when they are far less practical?

Because humans originally lived in water and are still quasi-aquatic.

I do not believe in evolution at all, but I don't believe you have to in order to grasp the idea that Elaine Morgan is almost certainly correct in drawing connections between humans and the aquatic mammals.

16 posted on 12/17/2009 9:30:36 AM PST by wendy1946 ( The claim here is that)
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To: wendy1946

Yes, but modern homes with modern conveniences makes it irrelevant. Whatever practical advantage being near water had in the ancient past, are non-existent now.

But people still value those homes more, even though it’s easily arguable that they are impractical, because they have a psychological affinity for it.


17 posted on 12/17/2009 9:38:53 AM PST by Truthsearcher
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To: Truthsearcher
One other perspective: As long as any of the Iowa-class ships were still operational it was said that something like 80% of the targets the US military might potentially ever want to hit were within the range of the guns on those ships.

That said that fewer than 20% of any meaningful military targets were more than 30 miles back from shorelines.

18 posted on 12/17/2009 9:43:19 AM PST by wendy1946 ( The claim here is that)
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To: Dick Bachert

Dang! You beat me to it! But you forget to ask for her gold fillings, too, LOL!


19 posted on 12/17/2009 9:48:07 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin ( "When you subsidize poverty and failure, you get more of both." - James Davidson)
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To: Dick Bachert
Please send me any you may currently have in your possession — jewelry, coins, bars, fillings, whatever. I’ll pay for shipping. Thank you.

I may take you up on it later if you promise to always pay me $1,100 per Troy oz, no matter what the current spot price is.

20 posted on 12/17/2009 9:54:06 AM PST by Yo-Yo
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

I told my wife, “NO UNDERWEAR”.....................maybe it’ll work this year..........


21 posted on 12/17/2009 9:59:48 AM PST by Red Badger (Obama - The first ever elected lame duck..............)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

I have a feeling the most valuable portble entity in the pathetic future ahead will be MRE’s or some derivitive thereof. If only they were affordable in bulk.


22 posted on 12/17/2009 10:01:55 AM PST by wolfman
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To: wendy1946
Almost certainly?

I'll confess - this is the first time I've ever encountered this "theory", and my initial reaction is, it's all wet!

How about people (and most other animals, and most all plants) live near water because it's essential to their very survival!

I mean, you don't see a lot of metropolises or a lot of flora and fauna in the Gobi desert, and I would reckon that's because there's not really a lot of water around, and it's not because people/animals/plants want to live in the water! They want access to it to consume it and use it for various other needs deemed essential to their lives.

Not to denigrate the efforts of the esteemed Ms. Morgan, but I simply can't get into this as a viable explanation for much of anything, least of all why people buy shore front property at a premium.

CA....

23 posted on 12/17/2009 10:06:42 AM PST by Chances Are
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To: Chances Are

One example, the most obvious visible difference between us and apes is our legs being the major limbs, an adaptation for swimming and wading. An ape trying to swim as we do would just turn somersaults in the water. Likewise with voluntary control of breathing; apes don’t have it and that appears to be the only reason that gorillas cannot be taught to speak English.


24 posted on 12/17/2009 10:21:19 AM PST by wendy1946 ( The claim here is that)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo (in 2010?)

He forgot, "Dogs and cats, living together, MASS HYSTERIA!"

I'm so physically sick of all this incessant pessimism. If the world's economy goes, I'd just as soon go with it. Because I don't relish the idea of starting over with cretins like this guy.

25 posted on 12/17/2009 10:31:16 AM PST by GOP_Resurrected
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To: wendy1946

And they shut down gold mining all over the world, to run the price up...


26 posted on 12/17/2009 10:37:45 AM PST by Freddd (CNN is not credible.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
The annual “Outrageous Predictions” of Denmark’s Saxo Bank are not for the faint-hearted...

They're enough to make some Democrats' balls shoot right back up into the belly....so to speak.

27 posted on 12/17/2009 10:40:35 AM PST by Petronski (In Germany they came first for the Communists, And I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist...)
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To: AngelesCrestHighway
And I predict I’ll get a six pack of underwear for Christmas....

Hopefully new, or at least gently used.

28 posted on 12/17/2009 10:42:10 AM PST by Petronski (In Germany they came first for the Communists, And I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist...)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
"Saxo Bank offers its thoughts as `Black Swan’ risks that could paddle up quietly and bite you, rather than absolute predictions. Take them in the right spirit. "

Black Swan Theory


29 posted on 12/17/2009 12:08:17 PM PST by blam
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To: GOP_Resurrected
"I'm so physically sick of all this incessant pessimism"

You keep saying that but you seem to be attracted to these threads...you always show up and whine.

Here, you missed this one.

Meet The Doomsayers Who Just Won't Give Up

30 posted on 12/17/2009 12:12:17 PM PST by blam
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To: blam

I didn’t miss it. A rogues gallery of ghouls.

Look, I’m a financial advisor, so call me biased if you want. But every piece of good news is not to be pissed on and dismissed. There is a cottage industry of permanent bears, gold bugs, and other economic oddballs who have been spouting this nonsense for 40 years. And despite being right on the crisis, you would have ended up a hell of a lot poorer had you shorted the market every time they predicted Armageddon.

What good do you think wallowing in misery does for our cause? Voters don’t tend to reward parties who sound like the rag-clad lunatic on the street corner preaching the end of the world. I for one, have just had with incessant gloom, especially against the body of emerging evidence.

Here, have some Christmas cheer.

https://www.lordabbett.com/advisor/commentary/marketview/November2009/

http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2009/12/14/the_recession_is_over

http://www.jpmorganclientextranet.com/econtent/DKyrend2009.pdf


31 posted on 12/17/2009 1:15:52 PM PST by GOP_Resurrected
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To: GOP_Resurrected
"I for one, have just had (it) with incessant gloom, especially against the body of emerging evidence."

I say post these positive articles, they are more convincing than attacking the person who posts articles you disagree with.

My point is that I don't believe in UFO's and I find people that do so a little odd but, check any UFO thread and you'll not see me making a post to the poster or a word about the article. I AVOID THEM!

32 posted on 12/17/2009 2:06:16 PM PST by blam
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To: Truthsearcher

“Why are ocean front properties worth so much more when they are far less practical? (Beach erosion, hurricanes, flooding, etc). Because psychologically, people like the view.”

Try supply and demand.

Try personal freedom.

Try location, location, location.

Try climate, recreation and lifestyle.


33 posted on 12/17/2009 2:16:49 PM PST by truth_seeker
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To: truth_seeker

I don’t think you understood my point at all.


34 posted on 12/17/2009 2:29:10 PM PST by Truthsearcher
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To: Truthsearcher

“I don’t think you understood my point at all.”

I guess not. I’m just a real estate broker with over 20 years of experience.

What should I know about property valuation?

Psychology at once explains everything, and nothing. Ever heard of psychobabble?

Give me old red meat supply and demand; hardcore economics.

Your concepts of practicality and psychology are wrapped up nicely in supply and demand, complete with a pricetag.


35 posted on 12/17/2009 3:48:19 PM PST by truth_seeker
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To: blam

Fair enough. Everyone has their sore spot, that one’s mine.

But I do come here to debate, so I can’t help but be drawn to threads I disagree with.


36 posted on 12/17/2009 3:53:53 PM PST by GOP_Resurrected
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To: truth_seeker

Perhaps you didn’t read the post I was responding to.


37 posted on 12/17/2009 4:08:55 PM PST by Truthsearcher
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