Mmmm...German Bundt cake...
Posted on 12/17/2009 8:55:42 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo
America’s Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt; both gold and the Japanese yen will crash; and China’s currency will devalue as bad loans catch up with the over-stretched banking system -- all in the course of 2010.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 3:28PM GMT 17 Dec 2009
The annual “Outrageous Predictions” of Denmark’s Saxo Bank are not for the faint-hearted, though there is good news for some.
Chief economist David Karsboel thinks the US trade balance may go into surplus for the first time since the mid-1970s, benefiting from the delayed effects of the weak dollar.
Yields on sovereign bonds -- the goods ones, not the bonds of quasi-basket cases such as Club Med, the UK, or Japan -- will plummet as deflation raises its ugly head again later in 2010. The ten-year German Bund yield will fall to 2.25pc. “Bunds are the ultimate safe-haven if something goes wrong, perhaps in Greece. We may even see some safe-haven buying of US Treasuries as well, despite the irresponsible fiscal policies in the US,” he said.
The US Social Security fund will finally tip over, technically going bust. “Ever since the good years of the 1960s politicians have been taking the money and spending it instead of setting it aside for the Fund, but next year it will go into deficit for the first time as US demography turns. The Fund is going to need a bail-out, financed by higher taxes, more borrowing, or more printing.”
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Ping!
I hate it when my bunds are sore............
Mmmm...German Bundt cake...
My place of employment laid off about 20 workers yesterday (out of ~200) largely because of the cost of pensions.
And I predict I’ll get a six pack of underwear for Christmas....
laugh of the day!!
Saxo advises clients to dump 10-year Japanese bonds, doubting that current rates of 1.26pc are remotely sustainable at time when the public debt is exploding towards 227pc of GDP. “The yield is ridiculously low. The Japanese are no longer saving much, and have they hardly any economic growth,” he said.
There is one other possible use for it in that it would be the ideal metal for waterfowl shot, half again denser than lead, soft, and totally inert...
>> And I predict I’ll get a six pack of underwear for Christmas....
You’re getting underwear? Damn. I’m getting socks. Again.
You rich people get under my skin.
I was let go about 6 months ago from a consulting gig.
I had retired with pension two years earlier. We have two companies that are on idle. We have drawn in our horns and will stay low until this president is gone from the white house.
We have decided to not purse any business until then. I am old but smart enough to just stay alive and well long enough to see him defeated.
We survived the dot com bust because we are a virtual company. We just do not contract when we do not have the work. Most of my contractors are moving to other countries where there is steady work. We only accept work with pre payment.
I agree with the prognoses and it could be much worse by then. The president will not like all the bad news that is coming and will blame us for it and then take on punishment of us as he has a propensity to do. What form that will take is up in the air but it will come.
Chicago politics will be tough on America. This is a very bad time and it will be much worse soon.
Please send me any you may currently have in your possession — jewelry, coins, bars, fillings, whatever. I’ll pay for shipping.
Thank you.
Gold is a portable entity which can be used for payment. Has been this way for a long time. Other commodities are either perishable or bulky or only localized circulation value. Besides, one may not be stay around in one place. Especially if the social order breaks down. While on the move, you cannot bring all you stuffs with you. You need means of payment along the way.
Of course, you are free to avoid gold by all means. There will be still many takers if banking institutions collapse or inflation is going out of control.
It is not about high return ultimately. It is about keeping your purchasing power and making it portable.
What's gonna happen with Tiger Woods?
Human psychology is a huge part of economics.
One is much more likely to make a profit by studying human psychology than in analyzing the “intrinsic value” of things.
Why are ocean front properties worth so much more when they are far less practical? (Beach erosion, hurricanes, flooding, etc). Because psychologically, people like the view.
Because humans originally lived in water and are still quasi-aquatic.
I do not believe in evolution at all, but I don't believe you have to in order to grasp the idea that Elaine Morgan is almost certainly correct in drawing connections between humans and the aquatic mammals.
Yes, but modern homes with modern conveniences makes it irrelevant. Whatever practical advantage being near water had in the ancient past, are non-existent now.
But people still value those homes more, even though it’s easily arguable that they are impractical, because they have a psychological affinity for it.
That said that fewer than 20% of any meaningful military targets were more than 30 miles back from shorelines.
Dang! You beat me to it! But you forget to ask for her gold fillings, too, LOL!
I may take you up on it later if you promise to always pay me $1,100 per Troy oz, no matter what the current spot price is.
I told my wife, “NO UNDERWEAR”.....................maybe it’ll work this year..........
I have a feeling the most valuable portble entity in the pathetic future ahead will be MRE’s or some derivitive thereof. If only they were affordable in bulk.
I'll confess - this is the first time I've ever encountered this "theory", and my initial reaction is, it's all wet!
How about people (and most other animals, and most all plants) live near water because it's essential to their very survival!
I mean, you don't see a lot of metropolises or a lot of flora and fauna in the Gobi desert, and I would reckon that's because there's not really a lot of water around, and it's not because people/animals/plants want to live in the water! They want access to it to consume it and use it for various other needs deemed essential to their lives.
Not to denigrate the efforts of the esteemed Ms. Morgan, but I simply can't get into this as a viable explanation for much of anything, least of all why people buy shore front property at a premium.
CA....
One example, the most obvious visible difference between us and apes is our legs being the major limbs, an adaptation for swimming and wading. An ape trying to swim as we do would just turn somersaults in the water. Likewise with voluntary control of breathing; apes don’t have it and that appears to be the only reason that gorillas cannot be taught to speak English.
He forgot, "Dogs and cats, living together, MASS HYSTERIA!"
I'm so physically sick of all this incessant pessimism. If the world's economy goes, I'd just as soon go with it. Because I don't relish the idea of starting over with cretins like this guy.
And they shut down gold mining all over the world, to run the price up...
They're enough to make some Democrats' balls shoot right back up into the belly....so to speak.
Hopefully new, or at least gently used.
You keep saying that but you seem to be attracted to these threads...you always show up and whine.
Here, you missed this one.
I didn’t miss it. A rogues gallery of ghouls.
Look, I’m a financial advisor, so call me biased if you want. But every piece of good news is not to be pissed on and dismissed. There is a cottage industry of permanent bears, gold bugs, and other economic oddballs who have been spouting this nonsense for 40 years. And despite being right on the crisis, you would have ended up a hell of a lot poorer had you shorted the market every time they predicted Armageddon.
What good do you think wallowing in misery does for our cause? Voters don’t tend to reward parties who sound like the rag-clad lunatic on the street corner preaching the end of the world. I for one, have just had with incessant gloom, especially against the body of emerging evidence.
Here, have some Christmas cheer.
https://www.lordabbett.com/advisor/commentary/marketview/November2009/
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2009/12/14/the_recession_is_over
http://www.jpmorganclientextranet.com/econtent/DKyrend2009.pdf
I say post these positive articles, they are more convincing than attacking the person who posts articles you disagree with.
My point is that I don't believe in UFO's and I find people that do so a little odd but, check any UFO thread and you'll not see me making a post to the poster or a word about the article. I AVOID THEM!
“Why are ocean front properties worth so much more when they are far less practical? (Beach erosion, hurricanes, flooding, etc). Because psychologically, people like the view.”
Try supply and demand.
Try personal freedom.
Try location, location, location.
Try climate, recreation and lifestyle.
I don’t think you understood my point at all.
“I don’t think you understood my point at all.”
I guess not. I’m just a real estate broker with over 20 years of experience.
What should I know about property valuation?
Psychology at once explains everything, and nothing. Ever heard of psychobabble?
Give me old red meat supply and demand; hardcore economics.
Your concepts of practicality and psychology are wrapped up nicely in supply and demand, complete with a pricetag.
Fair enough. Everyone has their sore spot, that one’s mine.
But I do come here to debate, so I can’t help but be drawn to threads I disagree with.
Perhaps you didn’t read the post I was responding to.
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