Skip to comments.US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo (in 2010?)
Posted on 12/17/2009 8:55:42 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
US pensions go bust, gold crashes, China flops, Bunds soar, predicts Saxo
Americas Social Security Trust Fund will go bankrupt; both gold and the Japanese yen will crash; and Chinas currency will devalue as bad loans catch up with the over-stretched banking system -- all in the course of 2010.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 3:28PM GMT 17 Dec 2009
The annual Outrageous Predictions of Denmarks Saxo Bank are not for the faint-hearted, though there is good news for some.
Chief economist David Karsboel thinks the US trade balance may go into surplus for the first time since the mid-1970s, benefiting from the delayed effects of the weak dollar.
Yields on sovereign bonds -- the goods ones, not the bonds of quasi-basket cases such as Club Med, the UK, or Japan -- will plummet as deflation raises its ugly head again later in 2010. The ten-year German Bund yield will fall to 2.25pc. Bunds are the ultimate safe-haven if something goes wrong, perhaps in Greece. We may even see some safe-haven buying of US Treasuries as well, despite the irresponsible fiscal policies in the US, he said.
The US Social Security fund will finally tip over, technically going bust. Ever since the good years of the 1960s politicians have been taking the money and spending it instead of setting it aside for the Fund, but next year it will go into deficit for the first time as US demography turns. The Fund is going to need a bail-out, financed by higher taxes, more borrowing, or more printing.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
I hate it when my bunds are sore............
Mmmm...German Bundt cake...
My place of employment laid off about 20 workers yesterday (out of ~200) largely because of the cost of pensions.
And I predict I’ll get a six pack of underwear for Christmas....
laugh of the day!!
Saxo advises clients to dump 10-year Japanese bonds, doubting that current rates of 1.26pc are remotely sustainable at time when the public debt is exploding towards 227pc of GDP. The yield is ridiculously low. The Japanese are no longer saving much, and have they hardly any economic growth, he said.
There is one other possible use for it in that it would be the ideal metal for waterfowl shot, half again denser than lead, soft, and totally inert...
>> And I predict Ill get a six pack of underwear for Christmas....
You’re getting underwear? Damn. I’m getting socks. Again.
You rich people get under my skin.
I was let go about 6 months ago from a consulting gig.
I had retired with pension two years earlier. We have two companies that are on idle. We have drawn in our horns and will stay low until this president is gone from the white house.
We have decided to not purse any business until then. I am old but smart enough to just stay alive and well long enough to see him defeated.
We survived the dot com bust because we are a virtual company. We just do not contract when we do not have the work. Most of my contractors are moving to other countries where there is steady work. We only accept work with pre payment.
I agree with the prognoses and it could be much worse by then. The president will not like all the bad news that is coming and will blame us for it and then take on punishment of us as he has a propensity to do. What form that will take is up in the air but it will come.
Chicago politics will be tough on America. This is a very bad time and it will be much worse soon.
Please send me any you may currently have in your possession — jewelry, coins, bars, fillings, whatever. I’ll pay for shipping.
Gold is a portable entity which can be used for payment. Has been this way for a long time. Other commodities are either perishable or bulky or only localized circulation value. Besides, one may not be stay around in one place. Especially if the social order breaks down. While on the move, you cannot bring all you stuffs with you. You need means of payment along the way.
Of course, you are free to avoid gold by all means. There will be still many takers if banking institutions collapse or inflation is going out of control.
It is not about high return ultimately. It is about keeping your purchasing power and making it portable.
What's gonna happen with Tiger Woods?
Human psychology is a huge part of economics.
One is much more likely to make a profit by studying human psychology than in analyzing the “intrinsic value” of things.
Why are ocean front properties worth so much more when they are far less practical? (Beach erosion, hurricanes, flooding, etc). Because psychologically, people like the view.
I do not believe in evolution at all, but I don't believe you have to in order to grasp the idea that Elaine Morgan is almost certainly correct in drawing connections between humans and the aquatic mammals.
Yes, but modern homes with modern conveniences makes it irrelevant. Whatever practical advantage being near water had in the ancient past, are non-existent now.
But people still value those homes more, even though it’s easily arguable that they are impractical, because they have a psychological affinity for it.
That said that fewer than 20% of any meaningful military targets were more than 30 miles back from shorelines.
Dang! You beat me to it! But you forget to ask for her gold fillings, too, LOL!
I may take you up on it later if you promise to always pay me $1,100 per Troy oz, no matter what the current spot price is.