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Texas to Gain Four US House Seats Under Reapportionment, Analysis Shows
National Journal ^ | Dec. 23 | Richard E. Cohen

Posted on 12/23/2009 10:16:54 AM PST by BP2


With the Census Bureau's release today of its annual population estimates for the 50 states, the final projections of next year's decennial census reveal further details of the likely winners and losers. Here are some highlights based on the analysis by Polidata, a demographic and political research firm.

• Of the 11 House seats that would switch among the states as a result of the projections, Texas would gain four. The remaining seats would be distributed one each to seven states -- four in the West (Arizona, Nevada, Utah and Washington) and three in the South (Florida, Georgia and South Carolina).

• Of the states losing seats, only Ohio would suffer multiple losses, with two. The remaining states that are projected to have downsized House delegations include four in the Northeast (Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania), four in the Midwest (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota), plus Louisiana.

• Using the complex formula for apportioning the House, Missouri would be on the cusp with the 435th seat and Minnesota is listed for the mythical 436th seat -- by a margin of roughly 10,000 persons each. Those states, consequently, will be among those states with the most at stake to assure a full count of their residents.

• Compared to similar projections a year ago of "winner" states, Washington has replaced Oregon in gaining a House seat, while Arizona would gain one seat instead of two, and North Carolina would gain none. California and Missouri no longer would lose a House seat.



TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: azatlan; census2010; congress; election; immigration; obama; reapportionment; reconquista; redstates; texas
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In Texas, for example, Hispanic and Democratic groups expect that the four-seat statewide gain will include three new Hispanic-majority districts: in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, in Houston and in south Texas. Those changes, in turn, could entrench several metropolitan-area House Republican districts, which have had huge increases in Hispanic population in the past decade.



1 posted on 12/23/2009 10:16:55 AM PST by BP2
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To: BP2

• Of the 11 House seats that would switch among the states as a result of the projections, Texas would gain four. The remaining seats would be distributed one each to seven states — four in the West (Arizona, Nevada, Utah and Washington) and three in the South (Florida, Georgia and South Carolina).
+++++++++++++++

Except for my lame state (WA), looks like solid gains for Conservatives...even the RAT press & ACORN/COI can’t SPIN/CORRUPT that!


2 posted on 12/23/2009 10:19:59 AM PST by SeattleBruce (God, Family, Church, Country - Keep on Tea Partiers - party like it's 1773!)
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To: BP2

I,personally,would be thrilled if all 4 seats were to come from Massachusetts.It’s no secret that we,as a state,have the filthiest most amoral Congressional delegation of the 57.The voters of Texas have,in recent years,consistently shown a better grasp of what’s good for me (and this country) than have the people of Massachusetts.


3 posted on 12/23/2009 10:23:19 AM PST by Gay State Conservative (Host The Beer Summit-->Win The Nobel Peace Prize!)
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To: BP2

Thanks for posting this. If the GOP does well in 2010 we could be set up for a real redistricting advantage. I espect Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania to have strog GOP gains in their respective legislatures.


4 posted on 12/23/2009 10:24:03 AM PST by MSF BU (++)
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To: BP2

At first you’d think the losing states being Rat controlled is good, but the bad thing about that is they will just gerrymander the one republican district out so that the only person that loses is the republican.

While the states that add a district since it’s new it’s anyone’s game. Overall it’s better to be gaining seats, but it won’t neccesarily translate to more Republicans in the house. We’ll need to see what the actual make up of each district is and how they plan to gerrymander them.


5 posted on 12/23/2009 10:24:17 AM PST by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: BP2
Classic addition by subtraction.

The music has started again for the Masachusetts congressational delegation playing musical House seats.

6 posted on 12/23/2009 10:25:45 AM PST by AU72
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To: for-q-clinton

Texas - +4 seats.

Dem seats no doubt.


7 posted on 12/23/2009 10:26:13 AM PST by K-oneTexas (I'm not a judge and there ain't enough of me to be a jury. (Zell Miller, A National Party No More))
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To: SeattleBruce
Except for my lame state (WA), looks like solid gains for Conservatives...even the RAT press & ACORN/COI can’t SPIN/CORRUPT that!

I'm not so sure of that,particularly if amnesty passes.NV,AZ and FL are **full** of wetbacks (can I say that? If I'm banned I guess I'll know that I can't) and I think we all know what that means...for the House and,more importantly,for the Senate.

8 posted on 12/23/2009 10:28:02 AM PST by Gay State Conservative (Host The Beer Summit-->Win The Nobel Peace Prize!)
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To: AU72
The music has started again for the Massachusetts Congressional delegation playing musical House seats.

Hey,that's an easy one to figure out.Given our *breathtakingly* filthy and amoral legislature,taking orders from DNC Headquarters in Havana,will pick the least repugnant of the current Congresscreatures (boy,will *that* be a tough job!) and...BOOM....he/she is out of work.

9 posted on 12/23/2009 10:32:58 AM PST by Gay State Conservative (Host The Beer Summit-->Win The Nobel Peace Prize!)
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To: BP2

FYI, if those districts are along the Mexican border then they WILL go Democrat.


10 posted on 12/23/2009 10:33:16 AM PST by oldvike
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To: BP2
I've been hoping that Massachusetts would lose two seats. Then I was also looking forward to the bloodbath that would ensue.

Go Texas.

11 posted on 12/23/2009 10:35:07 AM PST by Radix (Obama represents CHAINS for posterity.)
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To: Gay State Conservative

I’m not so sure of that,particularly if amnesty passes.NV,AZ and FL are **full** of wetbacks (can I say that?
++++++++++++++

Well be sure of this, Conservative sentiment runs deep in many states, and states like Oklahoma, I must say, and to some degree Texas will lead the way for others like AZ, FL and NV...I think this is hopeful.


12 posted on 12/23/2009 10:39:24 AM PST by SeattleBruce (God, Family, Church, Country - Keep on Tea Partiers - party like it's 1773!)
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To: for-q-clinton

At first you’d think the losing states being Rat controlled is good, but the bad thing about that is they will just gerrymander the one republican district out so that the only person that loses is the republican.

While the states that add a district since it’s new it’s anyone’s game. Overall it’s better to be gaining seats, but it won’t neccesarily translate to more Republicans in the house. We’ll need to see what the actual make up of each district is and how they plan to gerrymander them.


Good point.

I have not looked recently but how many of the liberal/progressive states have zero Republican Representatives now?

I recall New York has zero Republican Representatives right now, so a reapportionment loss in New York would be a direct Democrat loss.


13 posted on 12/23/2009 10:43:43 AM PST by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: BP2; tubebender

bada bump


14 posted on 12/23/2009 10:49:26 AM PST by SouthTexas (Charge global warmers under RICO.)
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To: K-oneTexas

“Texas - +4 seats.

Dem seats no doubt”

If the GOP can increase their margin in the lege, we can break even and if lucky can gain a seat.


15 posted on 12/23/2009 10:51:53 AM PST by BnBlFlag (Deo Vindice/Semper Fidelis "Ya gotta saddle up your boys; Ya gotta draw a hard line")
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To: BnBlFlag

That’s a big ‘IF’ after the last round of gerrymandering that took place with Texas districts.

I hope you are right. I hope we get some more conservative candidates (at this point I don’t care what party the call themselves - as long as they are truly conservative) to set-up in Statewide elections.


16 posted on 12/23/2009 10:54:10 AM PST by K-oneTexas (I'm not a judge and there ain't enough of me to be a jury. (Zell Miller, A National Party No More))
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To: Presbyterian Reporter

Hmm, people move out of socialist Havens for the more Traditional Havens....


17 posted on 12/23/2009 10:54:23 AM PST by GraceG
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To: SeattleBruce

If eastern Washington gains the seat, then there’s a better chance it’ll go repub.


18 posted on 12/23/2009 10:59:04 AM PST by Scotsman will be Free (11C - Indirect fire, infantry - High angle hell - We will bring you, FIRE)
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To: BP2

Was music to my ears when I heard 4 new seats for Texas!

Then I read more and find out they will be new Hispanic (Democrap) district seats. Oh hell and immigration is up next for these Congress scumbags to lock in the Hispy vote.

What a pile of ****


19 posted on 12/23/2009 11:03:23 AM PST by RedneckReb
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To: BP2

This adds up to more electoral college votes as well...


20 posted on 12/23/2009 11:03:43 AM PST by Mariner
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To: AU72

No need. They will boot the sole (nominal) pro-life Democrat in that delegation.


21 posted on 12/23/2009 11:05:27 AM PST by Norman Bates
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To: SeattleBruce
>> looks like solid gains for Conservatives Mexicans...
22 posted on 12/23/2009 11:07:44 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: K-oneTexas; basil; WOSG

3 republican to 1 Dem I predict.


23 posted on 12/23/2009 11:08:14 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: CPT Clay

I hope so. Conservative all 4 of them would be nice in this day and age.


24 posted on 12/23/2009 11:10:56 AM PST by K-oneTexas (I'm not a judge and there ain't enough of me to be a jury. (Zell Miller, A National Party No More))
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To: for-q-clinton

That’s true when you consider the implications for HOUSE races, but what this also does is re-apportion the Electoral Votes for the 2012, 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.


25 posted on 12/23/2009 11:12:41 AM PST by Alberta's Child (God is great, beer is good . . . and people are crazy.)
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To: Nervous Tick

Are they all on the border?


26 posted on 12/23/2009 11:18:02 AM PST by SeattleBruce (God, Family, Church, Country - Keep on Tea Partiers - party like it's 1773!)
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To: LS

Hey LS, you guys going to redistrict Kucinich out? LOL


27 posted on 12/23/2009 11:18:11 AM PST by CPT Clay (Pick up your weapon and follow me.)
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To: RedneckReb

Actually, it depends which Hispanic areas it is at.

If in the far south, most likely Dem. Otherwise, probably GOP.

At least here in West Texas, the Hisps vote pretty Republican too.


28 posted on 12/23/2009 11:18:18 AM PST by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: SeattleBruce

>> Are they all on the border?

Oh, I’m (partly) being a wiseacre. But don’t kid yourself, Hispanics account for a LOT of the increase especially in Texas.


29 posted on 12/23/2009 11:22:21 AM PST by Nervous Tick (Stop dissing drunken sailors! At least they spend their OWN money.)
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To: Gay State Conservative
same here: Massachusetts resident who would be thrilled if we lost every damned seat in the house.

No other state sends the number of lunatics to DC than Massachusetts.

30 posted on 12/23/2009 11:29:25 AM PST by warsaw44
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To: K-oneTexas
Actually, the Mexican citizens that I know who vote, are voting Republican. I think many of them are seeing the light.

I worry more about those who have moved here from Massachusetts. They are the ones who will try to turn Texas blue!

31 posted on 12/23/2009 11:35:14 AM PST by basil (It's time to rid the country of "Gun Free Zones" aka "Killing Fields")
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To: Scotsman will be Free

More information from Benson at Polidata here:
http://www.polidata.org/news.htm#20091223

Kind of interesting...all of this is a projection, and pending the Census count...bringing in a variation of Stalin’s quote again:

“It’s not the votes that count, it’s who counts the votes” — Joseph Stalin

So for the Census we can say, “it’s not the actual population that matters, but who counts the population that matters.” I think based on the Polidata projections, etc., and people watching this closely, it may be hard to fudge data too much - but we’ll see, because a few fudges could result in at least a handful more RATS in the apportionments.

Now that said, getting ACORN out of the census biz, is a huge development, even if they’re scratching and clawing still out there. We NEED to keep fighting that battle, among the dozens of other battles (Saul Alinsky - ‘overwhelm the system’ - which rule is that?)


32 posted on 12/23/2009 11:41:44 AM PST by SeattleBruce (God, Family, Church, Country - Keep on Tea Partiers - party like it's 1773!)
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To: basil

I worry more about those who have moved here from Massachusetts. They are the ones who will try to turn Texas blue!
++++++++++++++++++++

Right. One of the untoward side effects of migration to the Southern Conservative states. Musn’t let that happen! Educate, educate, educate on Liberty values!


33 posted on 12/23/2009 11:43:18 AM PST by SeattleBruce (God, Family, Church, Country - Keep on Tea Partiers - party like it's 1773!)
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To: Mariner

This adds up to more electoral college votes as well...
++++++++++++++

Exactly - TX just became that much bigger in 2012. As well as the South...


34 posted on 12/23/2009 11:44:24 AM PST by SeattleBruce (God, Family, Church, Country - Keep on Tea Partiers - party like it's 1773!)
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To: BP2

Texas has taken in a horde of fleeing Yankees seeking jobs that have fled their home states.

I ask myself constantly are they libs fleeing their lib hellholes to create new hellholes or are they conservatives who finally had enough of living in a lib hellhole?

Sometimes I feel like keying every vehicle I see with Yankee or Californian license plates.

Four extra House seats is nice but starting a whole new country would be a whole lot nicer.


35 posted on 12/23/2009 11:46:14 AM PST by OrangeHoof ("Barack Obama" is Swahili for "Bend over suckahs".)
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To: warsaw44

same here: Massachusetts resident who would be thrilled if we lost every damned seat in the house.

No other state sends the number of lunatics to DC than Massachusetts.
++++++++++++++

We’re pretty hot on your heels in WA State...I’d gladly donate our seats to say OK, TX and GA...lol...


36 posted on 12/23/2009 11:46:25 AM PST by SeattleBruce (God, Family, Church, Country - Keep on Tea Partiers - party like it's 1773!)
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To: K-oneTexas

agreed... all those f’n liberal carpetbaggers coming here for jobs. In the end, they’ll end they ruin Texas by voting the same liberal sh*theads into office that ruined the states they just came from

If I see another out of state license plate with an Obama sticker on it.... URRGGG!


37 posted on 12/23/2009 11:51:12 AM PST by TV Dinners (Hope is not a Strategy)
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To: BP2

At worst this is a ten vote swing to the GOP in the electoral college. If you count the states Bush won in 2004, it is a 14 vote swing. Congratulations to the blue state losers. I saw a report from Detroit on fox news last night and it looked like Sarajevo circa 1995. If you want to know how rampant liberal democrat socialist obamunism will change your community, take a look at Detroit. Did I mention Detroit is the home of America’s first hip hop mayor?


38 posted on 12/23/2009 11:58:42 AM PST by johncocktoasten (Practicing asymetrical thread warfare against anti-Palin Trolls)
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To: BP2

It would be hilarious to take a seat from a certain district in San Francisco. Bye, bye Ms Speaker.


39 posted on 12/23/2009 12:10:59 PM PST by tanuki (The only color of a leader that should matter is the color of his spine.)
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To: SeattleBruce

Why do you think those districts are going to be conservative?


40 posted on 12/23/2009 12:16:06 PM PST by DallasSun (i believe in separation of church and hate.)
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To: SeattleBruce

What in the world are you basing that on???????


41 posted on 12/23/2009 12:17:40 PM PST by DallasSun (i believe in separation of church and hate.)
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To: basil

You are right. Alot of hispanics vote republican. But then I see posts on here about mexicans and “wetbacks” and it is no wonder most do not vote republican. I do not blame them. So much of this is ignorance and I have no patience with it.


42 posted on 12/23/2009 12:21:15 PM PST by DallasSun (i believe in separation of church and hate.)
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To: BP2

Is the data at http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.html?

I get TX +3 and MN at 0.

Yes, I used “the method of equal proportions.”

MN 8 gets the 434th seat.
5266214 * sqrt(1/(8*7)) = 703727.
WA 10 gets the 435th seat.
6664195 * sqrt(1/(10*9)) = 702467.
OH 17 would be the 436th seat.
11542645 * sqrt(1/(17*16)) = 699875

FL 27 would be the 437th, OR 6 would be 438th,

TX 36 would actually be the 439th seat.
24782302 * sqrt(1/(36*35)) = 698162.


43 posted on 12/23/2009 12:27:33 PM PST by scrabblehack
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To: Presbyterian Reporter

“I recall New York has zero Republican Representatives right now, so a reapportionment loss in New York would be a direct Democrat loss.”

Same with MA, only Dems can lose...yay!


44 posted on 12/23/2009 1:06:54 PM PST by CatQuilt (Lover of cats =^..^= and quilts)
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To: CPT Clay
I raised the districting issue with Husted. My view is that you are better off having ALL districts competitive, so that in a good year you can absolutely sweep. Yes, in a bad year, you can absolutely lose. So, don't have a bad year.

Husted I think reflected the "insider" view, which is play it safe. But that means you can never really get serious change, because you'll never have enough of a majority to insulate the few RINOS from their constituents so they can vote the right way.

It's like 3d and long in football: the conservative runs up the middle and punts; the winner goes for the 15-yard pass and knows sometimes he'll get sacked and sometimes he'll throw an INT but the only way to win is to go for it.

45 posted on 12/23/2009 1:09:46 PM PST by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: BP2

I’m guessing they’ll all be around Houston and other urban centers, probably not, say, the Hill Country.


46 posted on 12/23/2009 2:02:40 PM PST by americanophile (Merry Christmas!)
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To: LS
I agree with you completely.

Forget “safe” districts, and EXPECIALLY do away with ones drawn especially for blacks.

47 posted on 12/23/2009 2:40:14 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied, the economy died)
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To: BP2

I’d rather lose seats if it can mean we could get rid of our illegal aliens. We would be a much stronger state for it, even with fewer seats.


48 posted on 12/23/2009 3:14:04 PM PST by fwdude (It is not the liberals who will destroy this country, but the "moderates.")
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To: K-oneTexas

4/4 of those seats is mathematically impossible for Republicans. I would think the GOP would be lucky to get one. That would change the delegation from the current 20-12 R to 21-15 R.


49 posted on 12/23/2009 3:25:04 PM PST by Theodore R.
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To: CatQuilt

Is Peter King of NY no longer there? NY is irrelevant to the Republican Party, much as so many other states as well.


50 posted on 12/23/2009 3:28:19 PM PST by Theodore R.
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