Skip to comments.Five Decades Of Cooling Ahead
Posted on 12/24/2009 3:44:23 PM PST by raptor22
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21 Apr 09 - Paul Stanko of NOAA writes meteorologist Anthony Watts to tell him of an interesting development in his tracking of the International Sunspot Number (ISN).
My running mean of the International Sunspot Number for 2009 just dipped below 1.00. For anything comparable you now need to go back before 1913 (which scored a 1.43) which could mean we're now competing directly with the Dalton Minimum. Just in case you'd like another tidbit, here is something that puts our 20 to 30 day spotless runs in perspective the mother of all spotless runs (in the heart of the Maunder Minimum, of course!) was from October 15, 1661 to August 2, 1671. It totaled 3579 consecutive spotless days, all of which had obs. To say that that we in interesting times is a huge understatement. We are about to enter a Grand Minimum, which in the past have produced a cooler planet, while our government is preparing for run-away global warming. Who could have predicted this stupidity?
Well 2008 arrived last night and Sunspot Cycle 24 was absent. While we had a flurry of excitement a few week ago when a patch of reverse polarity showed on the Suns surface it soon faded. The Sun reverses polarity with each cycle change. As we have discussed in the past the length of the roughly 11-year sunspot cycle is correlated with temperature and a late arriving cycle can have some long term climate implications for us folks here on Earth. The Cycle 23 solar minimum was at 1996.5, so with an average 11 year cycle we should have seen the new minimum in mid-2007. Here we are in 2008 and the next cycle is already six months late, and the defining minimum generally occurs 12-20 months after the first spot of the new cycle. This would indicate the ending minimum of Cycle 23 and the start of Cycle 24 will come in mid 2009, resulting in a 13 year cycle, the longest since 1784-1797. Interesting to note that this cycle started a long series - 13.6, 12.3, 12.7 years, which coincided with the cold period known as the Dalton Minimum. Stay tuned, these are going to be interesting times. Sun cycles indicate cooling and the politicians are trying stop global warming. We may need a little extra warming over the next thirty years.
Thanks to David Archibald for this graphic showing the relationship of cycle length to temperature in New Hampshire.
The Dalton minimum in the 400 year history of sunspot numbers The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years. The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum.
How sunspots were observed back then?
The Sunspot Cycle
In 1610, shortly after viewing the sun with his new telescope, Galileo Galilei (or was it Thomas Harriot?) made the first European observations of Sunspots. Continuous daily observations were started at the Zurich Observatory in 1849 and earlier observations have been used to extend the records back to 1610. The sunspot number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual sunspots.
Article from: Albany Times Union (Albany, NY) Article date:September 16, 2007 Copyright
Byline: JAMEY KEATEN - Associated Press
PARIS - Arctic ice has shrunk to the lowest level on record, new satellite images show, raising the possibility that the Northwest Passage that eluded famous explorers will become an open shipping lane.
The European Space Agency said nearly 200 satellite photos this month taken together showed an ice-free passage along northern Canada, Alaska and Greenland, and ice retreating to its lowest level since such images were first taken in 1978.
The waters are exposing unexplored resources, and vessels could trim thousands of miles from Europe to Asia by bypassing the Panama Canal. The seasonal ebb and flow of ...
She sure well. I agree with you.
“...CFC’s form free radicals in the upper atmosphere that act as chemical catalysts...”
You are exactly correct - the action of CFC’s is qualitatively different from that of CO2 precisely because it’s catalytic.
As centurion318 pointed out in post 6, one real shortcoming of this report is that it provides no mechanism by which CFC’s bring about warming (don’t know if that’s the case in the original work), just a correlation.
But assume, just hypothetically, that it is true - that atmospheric CFC’s *can* significantly warm the atmosphere. Global cooling - and in the extreme, ice ages - are much more hostile to human survival than modest global warming. And although I’ll concede that large-scale screwing around with natural phenomena is fraught with danger, imagine that we actually *could* modulate global temperature simply by controlled release of CFC’s.
In principle, a real global catastrophe - the next ice age - might be something that we’d at least have a shot at modifying, if the postulated effect of CFC’s is correct.
i want global warming!!!
I’m tired of it getting colder every year for more than 10 years!
I used to only wear long pants for 3 or 4 weeks a year and now I have to wear long pants for 5 or 5 months!
Tell me how CFCs that are heavier than air can reach the upper atmosphere?
CFC atoms affix themsleves to the heated air coming out of the capitol building and rise to the top with the hot air.
That’s why climate change is the perfect problem. As it is always changing, no one can disprove it.
“CFC atoms affix themsleves to the heated air coming out of the capitol building and rise to the top with the hot air.”
Bring back ny R-12 and blow up the Capitol building, problem solved!
In the late 80s I used to fly 25# canisters of R-12 to a shrimp fleet in Guymas and it cost me $1/#.
When it was outlawed my wholsale supplier told me that it had nothing to do with climate or the atmosphere that it was because DuPont’s patents were running out and it was so cheep to make that they wanted it eliminated so they could sell their R-134 which would give them a profit.
Who are these guys shitting anyway ? They can’t tell me what th eweather will be this Saturday correctly and yet they know 50 years from now. It’s all nature and man has little to do with any of this.
“Tell me how CFCs that are heavier than air can reach the upper atmosphere?”
There’s enough random motion among the molecules in the atmosphere that even heavier molecules can end up distributed at essentially all altitudes. Heck, even macroscopic particles - orders of magnitude heavier - can end up at high altitudes in dust storms and the like.
The migration of CFC’s to the upper atmosphere is exacerbated by their relative chemical inertness (at least until they encounter high-energy UV radiation up there), and is well-established both theoretically and experimentally.
Thats why climate change is the perfect problem. As it is always changing, no one can disprove it.
Well, it's not Global Warming or Global Cooling or Climate Change that is the problem with conservatives. We already know that these are all true and it's not a problem.
The problem is the "Anthropogenic Global Warming" -- and that's the one that the handful of scientists (who are promoting this) along with a bunch of politicians -- are pushing to make some political hay out of it.
I would just advise FReepers to not get very worried about Global Warming or Global Cooling or Climate Change -- as none of these present a problem to us.
It's only the "Anthropogenic Global Warming" that presents the problem.
Nope. It was NEVER going to be a catastrophic as many predicted. Never.
Chlorofluorocarbons? Bring Back Freon Now! Stop Global cooling dead in its tracks! And give us all back decent fridges, airconditioners etc...
BTW some one estimated it took only 100 years for the glaciers 2 km thick to form in the last Ice Age... only 95 years left -— hurry.
The CFC scare was (and is) as big a scam as AGW.
The “improvement” seen in the ozone levels recently weren’t supposed to happen for decades....the vast majority of CFCs are still in our atmosphere and as time passes and they work there way into the stratosphere, ozone depletion should still be on the increase.
The “ozone hole” is now known to run in cycles, and has as much to do with the solar activity as with the concentration of any CFCs.
The entire premise was based on incomplete data....atmospheric ozone had only been measured since the early 50’s.
One more thing...the actual process of CFC’s breaking down, and catalyzing the ozone has only been observed in laboratory conditions. Never in the atmosphere.
JunkScience is always a good place to look for the skeptical view on “man made” climate claims.
Algore is not pleased........
I would embrace global warming (I live in Wisconsin) if it were actually happening. But it’s not.
Anyone wanna buy a years supply of food??
And, unlike CO2, CFCs are completely man-made and nothing that the earth has ever handled before.
It seems this is all bull too...
Apparently, an Antarctic ozone hole was around long before CFCs. It appears seasonally and varies in size through the years. The 2006 ozone hole was the largest on record. In 2007, it shrank by 30%. The 2008 hole was the fifth largest since 1985. Could this be the result of nature, not man? Yes, according to a recent paper, Ultraviolet Absorption Spectrum of Chlorine Peroxide, CLOOCL, published in the Journal of Physical Chemistry, written by a team from the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) at Cal Tech. It's challenged our entire understanding of chemical ozone depletion.
Source: Contracting Business
I live here, too and it has been consistently 10+ degrees warmer than average for the past several weeks, especially at night.
I am in the “there is some warming and it is part of a natural cycle and not anthropogenic” camp. Also, the meteorologists consistently get the forecasts wrong. My guess is that the dynamic quality of the systems they can track make their predictions less than perfect. We often see forecast storms at all seasons go North and South of us, regardless of forecast tracks.
We had 10+ inches of snow forecast from this storm. Then it was downgraded to 5”+. Now, we _may_ get 1 inch tonight, if it cools off enough. Meanwhile, we have had rain overnight and a lot of the accumulated snow is gone.
What is the fluke and what is the consistent trend? Last summer, which was cool, overall, I was positive I would get no ripe tomatoes. Then August and September were warm and I had a bumper crop, even though the warmth came after Summer Solstice. I heard fears from area farmers that the corn wouldn’t ripen, but it did. Fall was significantly warmer than the past 2 years, as well.
I think the warmers, in general, have an ideological agenda. I also am certain they will continue to attempt to use whatever happens with the climate and weather to try and control and tax the world. Uncertainty only helps them unless people just decide it is not that great a problem and ignore them.
Given the price of fuel and the general state of the economy, this present warm December is a blessing.
35 degrees at 8 am Christmas morning? It seems that it may even be nearly 40 just a bit South of us.
Stultis, I'm a graduate of Denton High School. At least from 1975 forward, the DFW metroplex has not had a white Christmas, though there has been crappy weather on New Year's Day.
However, in 1976, we did have a blizzard that dropped six inches of snow in November. This is memorable for the fact that Florida State played the University of North Texas in Denton (then North Texas State University) and North Texas was favored. Bobby Bowden was in his first year at FSU and pulled the upset in front of a crowd of screaming dozens (I was one of them - one of my friends was in the stadium bathroom grasping the overhead hot water pipe for heat).
Of course it 1976 we were still concerned about global cooling.
check out the following...
There is a book "The Chilling Stars" on the link between cosmic rays and the sun and cloud cover. CFCs aren't needed.
This effort with CFCs is just an attempt to retain the Anthropogenic part of AGW, so as to continue justifiying fine scale government control over our lives.
“The CFC scare was (and is) as big a scam as AGW.”
I agree with you totally on AGW.
I don’t know the current state of research on the “ozone hole” business, although I do agree it was totally over-hyped: there’s always been a seasonal “ozone hole” over the Antarctic; the depletion during the extremely cold months is reasonably well-understood; and the degree to which CFC’s exacerbated that phinomenon (and the associated danger of that increase in ozone loss) is in my opinion a reasonable subject for debate.
But my point had little to do with ozone depletion, other that the supposition that any affect of CFC’s on ozone concentration was catalytic in nature.
As regards *global temperature*, IF decomposition of CFC’s led to radical fragments that acted catalytically, and IF that process could in fact lead to some measurable warming (and those are big IFs), that phenomenon could in fact be beneficial.
I was not aware that the degree of seasonable ozone depletion at the poles was cyclic - that does seem entirely reasonable; I had read some that the “recovery” of seasonable ozone levels was greater than expected.
Thanks for the additional info on the topic - public policy driven by junk science makes me crazy, and it generally turns out that once the envirowhacko’s get their way (a CFC ban), any further science on the issue hardly ever makes it past the primary literature, and further evaluation by non-specialists gets a lot harder to pursue.
“Given the price of fuel and the general state of the economy, this present warm December is a blessing.
35 degrees at 8 am Christmas morning? It seems that it may even be nearly 40 just a bit South of us.”
11 degrees & -19 with windchill here!
No non-emergency travel until noon Saturday, and we can hear the howl of the wind over our Christmas music! (and we live in town, not out on the farm.)
Obviously, our snowdrifts can beat your snowdrifts - beat them like a rented mule! Beat them like a red-headed stepchild! Beat them like ManBearPig on Algore!
Warm - feh.
What it demonstrates is that no one pays attention to an expert who presents multiple sides of an issue. They pay attention to con men... err... experts who are SURE of themselves.
It would be funny if a glacier threatened a major city. They’d be thinking up ways to melt that glacier so fast it would make your head spin.
Zip it, you breather.
(nothing personal, just thought of calling people "breathers" since we produce nasty vile CO2.)
You're welcome...I had the opportunity to follow the CFC saga since the start, and it has always been based on shaky science. Actually, jet streams distort the ozone concentration, something pointed out in about 87-88. It was promptly ignored, even though it appeared in Scientific American. (That was before they went PC.)
In a now familiar pattern, the big winners in Ozone depletion were research scientists and DuPont.
11C or 11F?
Your home page says you are in the UK. I guess this cold isn’t the norm for you over there.
We have lost all our snow to ugly frozen slush (the temps dropped to 16F for the overnight, here in Wisconsin)because it has rained between brief snows for several days. We normally are 27F day/10F night here and snow is ubiquitous, but usually dry and relatively easy to shovel or move w/a snow blower. The snow we had the 22-23 was heavy and very wet. The snow blower couldn’t handle it. Miserable stuff to shovel by hand and we are in the country with a driveway to match. The damp is worse than the cold, IMO. Cold and dry isn’t that bad. Cold and damp just gets into the bones. The winds were moderate, although usually we can expect them at about 25-35mph or higher during a blizzard.
Poor guys! I know what it’s like, so you have my sympathy. Take what pride that you can for surviving it. We usually brag on our miserable winters. What else can anyone do?
Christmas Blessings to you and yours.
But my goofy brother in law is sure we are all going to fry from Gorbal Warming.
Please add me to your ping list.
No need to worry...with the new definition of “decade,” this new ice age will last only 45 years.
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