That's my take on it too. If obama wants to claim "transparency" in his administration, well, start from the top. obama needs to quit spending millions (literally) to keep his birth certificate, school records, etc. private.
Personally, I give it a 20% chance obama's long-form BC would show his is an illegal President (ie. Kenyan born). I think it is more likely it would be part of a chain of evidence that would show obama is not his real legal name or some other extremely damaging information. Not sure if that would make him an illegal President - being sworn in under a name that was not his legal name, or what.
What I do know, 100% certain, is that where there is smoke, there's almost always fire. There is no valid reason for obama to waste millions hiding something unless it really needs to be hidden. There is something very, very wrong (legally) with obama's Presidency. People in and around his administration (who should know) have made contradictory claims "I've seen his long form BC" ... "obama has his long form BC" ... and " no long form BC exist, they were all destoried..." etc. Someone is lying about this, has to be. (probably more than one) Congress has shown a remarkable lack of interest in this. I'd say Congress is failing their due diligence responsibility.
On so many levels.
OTOH, Suppose we take him at his word and assume there is something "personally embarrassing" on his BC?
I believe/know a very few things:
The CoLB that his campaign released is a forgery.
Someone risked jail time to forge this document.
It takes all of half an hour on the 'net, and about $25-$40 to have a legitimate certified copy of your own BC delivered within a week.
Therefore, I conclude that there must be some compelling reason to falsify his BC.
The compelling reason that comes to mind is that the real document would kick him out of the running for being the most powerful man on earth.
From this I conclude that his true documentation shows one or more of the following truths:
He was not born in the United States, and is therefore constitutionally unqualified for the job. This is a show stopper. There is no way to "fix" this or inoculate himself against this. It is the premier presidency killer issue.
Therefore, I regard this as the most probable explanation for the deceit.
All the other possible reasons are much lower grade:
His BC shows that he's a bastard. Although this might be personally embarrassing, nobody cares, a goodly fraction of the electorate is in the same boat, or closely related to someone who is.
His birth name isn't Barak Hussein Obama. So what? We already know his his name changed when he was adopted in Indonesia. People can and do change their names, it isn't a crime, or even particularly shady.
The only question it really raises is why did he chose a muslim name? That's rather easy to explain away - he took his genetic father's name. Who can argue with that? Especially when muslim names had some popularity among blacks who didn't know just how deeply involved muslims were in the slave trade.
His real birth certificate lists his race as something other than "African". This would be more of a problem. His whole campaign was founded on his being "the first black president". Still not lethal to the presidency, but it would be awkward to 'splain away.
There is something else embarrassing on his official BC.
There could be nothing conceivably embarrassing about:
His time of birth
His city of birth
His county of birth
His island of birth
His religion (Religion is not even listed!)
His mother's race
The date it was filed
A few things could be a slightly embarrassing:
The serial number? Maybe? Suppose it's really 151-1961-000666?
His father's name wasn't listed. Not terribly unlikely if he and Stanley Ann split up before he was born. No one cares.
His mother's maiden name. Suppose she really did use her Anna Toot drinkin' ID to get married? Would that really suffice as a reason for someone to risk jail time by falsifying his documents? More to the point, would it disqualify Barak? I don't think so. If anything it could be played for the sympathy vote, young naïve Stanley Ann trying to do her best in covering up the mistakes of her youth. Mother's maiden name listed as Anna Toot? Yawn.
That leaves his birth name. Was it really the noble and exotic Barak Hussein Obama II?
Or was it Mortimer Snerdly Toot, hmmmm?
One other possibility, but it's so odd I hesitate to mention it:
Approximately 1% of live births are hermaphroditic to a noticeable degree. Perhaps his birth certificate lists him as a girl or a hermaphrodite (do they do that???). If nothing else, that would explain his pitching, and if Larry Sinclair is to be believed, his catching style...