Posted on 01/08/2010 9:52:56 PM PST by tang-soo
How Russia Is About to Dramatically Change the World
January 5, 2010 | From theTrumpet.com
In a remote corner of the world, a port bristles with cranes, smokestacks, mammoth ships—and trouble for Europe.
Robert Morley
Over the next few days, Russia will change the world. It has completed a new oil pipeline and port complex that sets Russia up to become a more powerful oil exporter than Saudi Arabia. The ramifications for Europe and Asia are profound: The shape of the global economy—and the global balance of power—will be altered forever.
December 28 was a big day of ceremony in Russia. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pushed a button that transformed global oil dynamics—especially for Asia and Europe. The button released thousands of barrels of Siberian crude into a waiting Russian supertanker and heralded the opening of Russia’s first modern Pacific-based oil export facilities.
The multibillion-dollar, state-of-the-art oil terminal was a “great New Year present for Russia,” Putin said during the inauguration. The strategic terminal, located in the city of Kozmino on the coast of the Sea of Japan, is one of the “biggest projects in contemporary Russia” he said, not only in “modern Russia,” but “the former Soviet Union too.”
Putin has every right to be enthusiastic about his new port. Kozmino will unlock a two-way gate through which Russia’s vast Siberian oilfields will gush into Asia’s energy-hungry economies—and Chinese, Korean and Japanese currency will flow into Russia.
If just the seven ships currently waiting to berth are all filled during January, the port of Kozmino will instantly become Russia’s third-most important oil outlet.
According to Reuters, the first oil transport loads on January 15. In a symbolic move highlighting Russia’s warming relationship with China, Hong Kong will receive the first shipment.
After that, Kozmino’s importance will exponentially grow over the next year. Currently, all Siberian oil shipments into Kozmino are delivered by train—but that will soon change. Phase one of the East Siberian-Pacific Ocean Pipeline (espo) was also completed during December. Phase two will soon connect the Siberian fields directly to the new port. When phase two is finished in 2014, total exports could jump from the current rate of 250,000 barrels per day to over 1 million. Kozmino will transform into one of the largest oil centers in the world—capable of handling 14 percent of total Russian oil exports. It will be one of the most strategic geopolitical assets in Russia’s arsenal.
Russia pumped more than 10 million barrels of oil per day during November. With Saudi Arabian production falling, Russia is now the world’s largest oil exporter. Toss in Russia’s natural gas exports, and Russia is the biggest energy superpower in the world, by far. That does not even count Russia’s massive uranium resources and nuclear expertise.
But here is why the new port in Kozmino could radically affect the future of both Asia and Europe. For over a century, Russia’s entire energy infrastructure has focused mainly on supplying Europe. That has now changed forever!
The first and now-complete phase of the espo pipeline, which connects Russia’s Siberian oil fields to within just a few kilometers of China, is already destabilizing global oil dynamics and shifting them in Russia’s direction. “espo is what political strategists might call a ‘game-changer,’” writes the Telegraph. “It means that Russia will be able to send its oil either east or west—so it can drive a harder bargain when selling crude to Europe” (emphasis mine throughout).
Previously, when Russia has had pricing disputes with Europe, Moscow had to play the embargo card with an obvious bluff. It had no other alternative outlet for its oil. Without the Europeans, its oil would sit in Samotlor and Tyanskoye, costing money instead of making it. But now Moscow can turn off the tap to Europe and still pump in the profits by opening the pipe wide to its energy-hungry Asian partners.
But Russia’s stranglehold on Europe is about to get even tighter—much tighter. By 2012, the espo pipeline will be twinned with a pipeline for natural gas exports so Russian gas supplies can also flow east instead of west if necessary.
This development is truly scary to Europeans.
Moscow has already demonstrated that it isn’t afraid to turn off Europe’s energy supplies when it feels it needs to. In the middle of winter 2006, Russia shut off gas supplies to Germany, and several other countries, in order to punish Ukraine. Since then, it has repeatedly used the same method to strong-arm its former Eastern European satellites back into accepting Russian dominance.
The message is clear: Russian oil and gas supplies are a weapon to be used—or not used—to freeze opponents into submission.
Europe, in a tenuous relationship with Russia to begin with, desperately needs to secure another source of energy. Only one other region in the world can supply the energy to warm and lubricate modern Europe’s homes and industries: the Middle East. Countries like Germany, which imports 90 percent of its oil, are now much more dependent on one of the most volatile regions of the world for power supplies.
It is inevitable that Berlin will seek to expand its ties with oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council members: the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and especially Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest petroleum producer. Europe has no choice but to become much more intimately involved with the affairs of the Middle East—a region from which 40 percent of its oil is currently derived.
It is therefore no surprise that Germany, the most dominant nation in Europe, has made sure it has troops on the ground surrounding this Middle Eastern “golden triangle” of energy production (Gulf Cooperation Council members plus Iran and Iraq). On the seas, the European Union’s naval presence is growing too. The European anti-piracy task force operates in both the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden. Forty percent of the world’s ocean-borne oil is shipped through the Gulf of Oman.
Europe is critically dependent on imported oil. And Germany knows it must have a strong presence in the world’s most oil-rich region if it is to secure its flow and the country’s future.
The Bible predicts that a major military clash will soon occur in the Middle East—specifically between a European power, led by Germany, and radical Islam, led by Iran.
Daniel 11:40-45 indicate that Iran will continue to push at this European power until it finally responds in “whirlwind,” blitzkrieg-type fashion. As we have explained for almost 20 years—and has been borne out repeatedly in real-world events—the “king of the south” spoken of in these verses is radical Islam under the leadership of Iran. And as Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has written, a big part of Iran’s push against Europe will involve oil.
The Middle East is a powder keg that could explode at any time. Syria dominates Lebanon and is stirring up trouble there. Iran is about to create a nuclear weapon and has said it wants to wipe Israel off the map. It is test firing missiles that can strike European capitals. Israel knows that the window to prevent Iran from getting the bomb is closing. Hamas is preparing to violently take East Jerusalem as a Palestinian capital. Israel is about to release 1,000 terrorists back onto the streets in return for one captured Israeli soldier.
And to top it off, the world is in the midst of its worst depression since the 1930s. Oil prices remain above $70 per barrel, and the International Energy Agency has indicated that world oil production will now peak in 2020—10 years sooner than prior estimates. Some analysts think the world has already reached peak oil production.
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In this climate of global instability, Russia’s recent moves on the world’s oil stage will be amplified in dramatic fashion. By unlocking Siberia’s energy reserves, Russia is simultaneously binding Asia together and lighting a fire under Europe. Watch for the development of an Asian alliance between Russia, China and Japan. And watch for Europe’s next moves toward the Middle East.
Gog & Magog.
Putin gets it. We should be seeking energy independence today if not yesterday. We should chuck the binding environmental laws and start drilling now. We need to expand clean coal. We need Nuke Power (Not the old reactors but new German ones or improvements upon them) and we need refineries as well. Yes, some small American made cars we can afford would be OK—sort of a VW Bug for the USA. Lets save gas—not to save the world but to save cash. Yes, lets refresh our grid and add windmills but know that oil and coal will get America out of the dumps. We could build clean steam engines and re-build out RR system. We let some little birdies and fishes doom the nation. That’s got to change—nuff said.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but if Russia sends it’s oil to Asia instead of Europe, how exactly will that drive up crude oil prices for Europe? Oil Asia buys from Russia is oil that Asia is not buying from other sources in the international market....oil that Europe would then buy. And when Europe bought that oil, wouldn’t it have to be at a lower price, given that the total world supply has increased???
Article sounds like BS to me.
Ping.
Countries like Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria and Mexico have almost destroyed their oil production with their own special versions of sheer lunacy. The Persian Gulf can be closed by Iran at anytime it wants and Iran can blow up the oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq anytime it wants, too.
Yes, but Russia still will not control the price of oil....there are too many other sources that will crank up production, and if Russia holds back on supply to try to manipulate price, Asian markets will also pay the higher price. How long will they put up with that?
Anyway, if Iran does attack S.A., it will get smacked right back down in short order. Any interruptions in supply from the gulf will be short lived, IMHO.
Also, the author of the article fails to mention the massive oil wells coming on line in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Brazil in the near future. I just don’t see how Russia can have that much of an impact. Foolish communists still don’t get supply and demand.
Thanks for the ping. Interesting thread post and thread. More oil. Good for Russia and good for the world. Now, how about drilling in Anwar?
Might be a good idea to brush up on your Russian language skills soon....
I’m not sure that the increased oil production to Pacific customers will work out as the author thinks.
Remember the “invisible hand” of the market will always trump governmental dictats.
More oil in the market=lower prices.
I hope somebody is in charge of heeding this warning.
Now, how about drilling in Anwar?<<<<
Won’t happen as long as the oil countries keep electing/supporting the right politicians.
The message is clear: Russian oil and gas supplies are a weapon to be used—or not used—to freeze opponents into submission.
I hope somebody is in charge of heeding this warning.<<<
They do heed it and are careful to not upset russia and have to go cold, for it gets cut during the coldest spells.
No argument from me on that statement, granny. Thanks again for the ping.
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