(Boston Globe) Senate poll: Coakley up 15 points

Boston Globe ^ | January 10, 2010 | Matt Viser and Frank Phillips

[Zakeet]

Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.

Half of voters surveyed said they would pick Coakley, the attorney general, if the election were held today, compared with 35 percent who would pick Brown. Nine percent were undecided, and a third candidate in the race, independent Joseph L. Kennedy, received 5 percent.

Coakley’s lead grows to 17 points - 53 percent to 36 percent - when undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included in the tally. The results indicate that Brown has a steep hill to climb to pull off an upset in the Jan. 19 election. Indeed, the poll indicated that nearly two-thirds of Brown’s supporters believe Coakley will win.

“She’s simply better known and better liked than Brown,’’ said Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll for the Globe.

“If there ever was a time for a Republican to win here, now is the time,’’ Smith added. “The problem is you’ve got a special election and a relatively unknown Republican going up against a well-liked Demo crat.’’

The poll, conducted Jan. 2 to 6, sampled the views of 554 randomly selected likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.

[Raycpa]

why is such a HUGE fraction of the state’s electorate ... INDEPENDENT?

Because "independent" means "even the democrats are too conservative for me".

[TShaunK]

I don’t care what a boston glob poll says.i saw that poll and started to laugh. What a fraud.
They had a survey last nite from boston.com on who you would vote for senator with Coakley listed first (must be the new alphabet).
Anyway with over 8000 sampled Brown was leading 54-46%. That was last night.

[Soul Seeker]

Eh...

I think we have two separate points here.

It is MA and I’ll believe the Democrat loses when it happens.

Same time I trust RAss and he had a lead that was less then 10 points for her. Plus Clinton wouldn’t be headed there if it was separated by 5 points. So while I lean Dem retention I don’t accept this poll result.

[techno]

I don’t believe either the Globe poll or the PPP poll. I believe Coakley win by about 5-7% because of ACORN.

[TShaunK]

From an online survey from last nite Boston globe. (boston.com)
They are making the 15 point lie up so it goes national to discourage donaters.

Republican state Senator Scott Brown will face off against Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Jan. 19 special election to fill the late Edward M. Kennedy’s US Senate seat. If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?

Scott Brown
54.1%
Martha Coakley
45.9%
Total votes: 8782

Boston.com’s surveys are not scientifically valid. They reflect the opinions of only those who vote. More

[6SJ7]

I can't wait to vote. I live in a lib neighborhood and will be wearing a Scott Brown button when I go to the polling place. :D

I'd recommend not doing that. Some rat working the polling station may "accidentally" spoil your ballot or find some lame excuse for not letting you vote.

[TShaunK]

Republican state Senator Scott Brown will face off against Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Jan. 19 special election to fill the late Edward M. Kennedy’s US Senate seat. If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?
Martha Coakley
Scott Brown

[ View results ]

Boston.com’s surveys are not scientifically valid. They reflect the opinions of only those who vote. More

(The results are Brown up 54-46% with close to 9000 surveyed)

[drellberg]

That is very funny, and too likley true in too many cases!

[bert]

.......They reflect the opinions of only those who vote.......

All those cubbyholes are meaningless if large portions of the previous vote don’t turn out. The desire for status quo may be high but not motivate voters to get out. The desire for change might be a stronger motivater

[9YearLurker]

It’s because they feel less bad about being knee-jerk followers if they can flatter themselves about being ‘independent’.

But they have voted for a number of Republican governors over the past couple of decades, so there is hope.

[Raycpa]

The most important part of a poll is the random selection. Polls which request participation are not random.

[Col Frank Slade]

Dems are in a cold sweat over this race.

Much closer that 15 points, but she may be still ahead.

That it is this close is extraordinary in itself.

Pray for a miracle. It may happen.

[freespirited]

Take a look at the party affiliation of the sample.

More than half say they are RATS and the proportion of self-described independents is miniscule when you consider that indies are supposed to be the plurality in MA.

I dont know what is going to happen, but at first glance this poll appears to me to have been manipulated by oversampling RATS.

[Col Frank Slade]

They always oversample to spin the results.

Let's see what Rasmussen and other professional polling outfits show later this week. I'd like to see a sample of at least 5000 MA residents that is weighted correctly.

[GQuagmire]

Rep 11%
Dem approx 35%
Unenrolled 50+%

[sunmars]

If Dems are having to swing out Bill Clinton to cheerlead for her, that means they are very worried, they shouldnt have to campaign in Mass, its like Dem Heaven for Dem politicians.

[tanknetter]

If Dems are having to swing out Bill Clinton to cheerlead for her, that means they are very worried, they shouldnt have to campaign in Mass, its like Dem Heaven for Dem politicians.

Yes, look at the actions being taken. MSM polls are too often skewed to help drive public opinion via bandwagon effect. The campaigns' internal polls are the truly accurate ones, and they drive how the campaigns' behave.

Case in point: during the California gubernatorial recall, the final set of LA Times polls the week before the vote showed the public voting "no" on the recall by a good margin and Bustamante beating Ahnold by something like 13 points. IOW, Davis should have stayed governor. If that set of polls were wrong and he was recalled, Bustamate should have been governor. Didn't quite work out that way ...

[olrtex]

I don’t give a damn what any poll says. We are talking about America’s future here.

With apologies to Winston Churchill, we shall not flag or fail. We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in Massachusetts, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend American freedom, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and even if America or a large part of it is subjugated to Obama’s Marxism, then freedom-loving Americans shall carry on the struggle until, in God’s good time, a majority of Americans step forth to the rescue and the liberation of this nation.

Take the fight to the enemy. Contribute to Scott Brown.

[Steelfish]

A voter from the Boston Herald:

“J.P. Licks owner Vince Petryk said he’s drawn to Coakley’s stance on abortion rights and same-sex marriage. As a business owner, he said, he wants Coakley to become a “voice that will help cut the bureaucracy” that hinders small businesses.”

Such are the idiots and imbeciles in MA.

[BAW]

I hope the Dems believe the Globe poll and get lazy, stay home. I hope the Repubs & Indys believe the PPP poll, get energized, go vote.

Send Scott some financial love.