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Is Obama In Trouble? (Current Low Polling Effects Mid-Terms for Dems)
The Washington Post ^ | January 14, 2010 | Ruth Marcus

Posted on 01/15/2010 2:38:00 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin

No one in the White House is celebrating over the latest polls. President Obama’s job approval rating has dipped below 50 percent in a flurry of recent surveys. Rasmussen has him at 46 percent; Quinnipiac at 45; in Gallup he’s clinging to 50. The Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll released Thursday had some heart-stopping numbers for Democrats: The president’s job approval was at 47 percent, down from 61 percent in April. Only 26 percent of respondents said they strongly approved of the president’s performance, compared to 38 percent in April. Just 39 percent said they would probably vote to reelect him, just 23 percent definitely.

To put this into historical context, Gallup’s Lydia Saad notes that:

Obama's initial approval rating in his second year as president is among the lowest for elected presidents since Dwight Eisenhower. Only Ronald Reagan -- who, like Obama, took office during challenging economic times -- began his second year in office with a lower approval score (49%). However, Obama's disapproval rating is slightly higher than Reagan's was (44% vs. 40%). This augurs poorly for Democrats in the short run -- this year’s mid-term elections -- but not necessarily for Obama. Looking back at presidential approval numbers, it is possible to posit an inverse relationship between a president’s rating at the end of his first year and the eventual success of his presidency. Using the Gallup numbers, the highest two ratings at this stage of a presidency were enjoyed by George W. Bush (84 percent) and George H.W. Bush (80 percent). Bush 43 won a second term but ended his presidency with job approval numbers in the 20s. Bush 41 lost reelection. Gallup’s bottom three were Clinton (54), Obama (50) and Reagan (49). Not bad company for the current president to be in.

(Excerpt) Read more at voices.washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 111th; 2010; 2010polls; allstatenational; bho44; bhomidterms; gallup; quinnipiac; rasmussen
This inverse relationship doesn't hold perfectly true -- Jimmy Carter had the fourth lowest approval rating; Kennedy and Eisenhower had the highest numbers, after the Bushes. But it does suggest that the year-out snapshot is not determinative.

Moreover, the president’s rating is not likely to go much lower. “We think this is probably the trough” for Obama, said Ed Reilly of Financial Dynamics, which conducted the Allstate/National Journal survey. “We don’t know if we’ve found the bottom but we’re near the bottom.”

1 posted on 01/15/2010 2:38:03 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

The Washington Post is saying this!!


2 posted on 01/15/2010 2:38:39 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (Save the Earth. It's the only planet with chocolate.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
So they're really saying that because Obamas numbers are so bad now, that at the end of his term he'll be in the pink.

Yes, we see now...

3 posted on 01/15/2010 2:43:05 PM PST by Funee Kat
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

If only he could get back his negro dialect. He could hope for a little change.


4 posted on 01/15/2010 2:44:44 PM PST by A Cyrenian
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Read the whole thing. It’s still a damage control piece.

They’re comparing him to Reagan’s situation during his first term.

The scary thing about Obama is he’s doing the exact opposite of Reagan.


5 posted on 01/15/2010 2:44:56 PM PST by CommieCutter ("You wanted the presidency, you got it, now FIX THE DAMN ECONOMY!!!!" ----YankeeReb)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
“We think this is probably the trough” for Obama, said Ed Reilly of Financial Dynamics, which conducted the Allstate/National Journal survey. “We don’t know if we’ve found the bottom but we’re near the bottom.”

Hell Ed. Inflation hasn't even started yet, and the job market is going to get much worse once Obama let's the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year. Sounds more like wishful thinking from a guy who just had his poll contradict his personal beliefs than it sounds like reality.

6 posted on 01/15/2010 2:45:27 PM PST by Carling (Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

By the start of the fourth year of office, ALL modern, elected presidents (i.e., since Roosevelt) have seen their approval ratings converge to within 1% of 53%.


7 posted on 01/15/2010 2:45:36 PM PST by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Talk about laughable spin ——— his ratings are the lowest ever so that’s good!!!!!!

Hahahahahahahaha

Keep up the good work, Obi Wan Nairobi.

If you go even lower, and you will, that’s even better!!!


8 posted on 01/15/2010 2:46:04 PM PST by DontTreadOnMe2009 (So stop treading on me already!)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

Hmm worse than expected eh. By November Obama will be a tar baby and the LIBS will meet their Wateroloo.


9 posted on 01/15/2010 2:46:04 PM PST by screaminsunshine (!!three if by government)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
I don't mean to be picky but it should be “affects” not “effects”. Just saying.
10 posted on 01/15/2010 2:47:45 PM PST by OSHA (Hey Muzzie! The Earth is not flat, When your face is toward mecca your a$$ is too!)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
To be recorded along with other famous last words like: “Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.”
11 posted on 01/15/2010 2:48:23 PM PST by Kartographer (".. we mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor.")
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

By the start of the fourth year of office, ALL modern, elected presidents (i.e., since Roosevelt) have seen their approval ratings converge to within 1% of 53%.


12 posted on 01/15/2010 2:49:04 PM PST by dangus (Nah, I'm not really Jim Thompson, but I play him on FR.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

It must be racism/s.


13 posted on 01/15/2010 2:49:33 PM PST by Dallas59 (No To O -Time is going by really really really really slow.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin
Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll released Thursday had some heart-stopping numbers for Democrats:...

What they really mean is, heart-stopping numbers for their MSM supporters. Despite the support and complete absence of MSM criticism, Obama and Democrats are tanking. Just try to get your head around how shrill the MSM would be right now if this economy was occurring under Bush. Just think.

14 posted on 01/15/2010 2:50:07 PM PST by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM are dishonest information brokers.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

I don’t think the Dems have any idea about the bitter, angry feelings out here. They don’t understand that the average “smelly”,(hat tip to Harry Reid)voter has finally figured out what Obama and his Marxist friends are all about.

They are hearing what their minions think they want to hear, and will be truly stunned by what happens next November.


15 posted on 01/15/2010 2:51:27 PM PST by EEDUDE
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To: Dallas59

“It must be racism/s.”

That’s IT! You’re a genius! Now I understand!


16 posted on 01/15/2010 2:54:44 PM PST by EEDUDE
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To: OSHA
Of COURSE you meant to be picky, LOL!
17 posted on 01/15/2010 3:00:53 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (Save the Earth. It's the only planet with chocolate.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

A Democrat in some story I saw pointed out an important fact that is missing from these stories.

It isn’t the size of Obama’s favorables or unfavorables that has the Dems worried. It is the size of Obama’s negatives combined with the INTENSITY of the negatives.

The people opposed to Obama oppose him with a passion unseen in the past, which means they will turn out in droves come election time.

That is what really has them worried in Mass. The intensity of those opposed to Obama means an ultra-high turnout of anti-Obama voters next Tuesday.


18 posted on 01/15/2010 3:06:34 PM PST by Brookhaven
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To: EEDUDE

My other theory is that it must Climate Change that causes racism....vise versa.


19 posted on 01/15/2010 3:20:25 PM PST by Dallas59 (No To O -Time is going by really really really really slow.)
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To: Diana in Wisconsin

“Moreover, the president’s rating is not likely to go much lower.”

Not so. We need to remember that the politically correct whites will never admit to disliking obuma for fear of being called “racist.”

I believe a accurate number is what Rush mentioned yesterday, that if the election were held today only 37% would vote for obuma. That, I believe, is a more accurate number of where obuma stands.

I still believe obuma will surpass Lincoln’s most dubious achievement: become the most hated man of his time.

obuma will be the most hated American president of all time.


20 posted on 01/15/2010 3:28:24 PM PST by sergeantdave
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To: sergeantdave

“obuma will be the most hated American president of all time.”

He’s certainly giving Carter a run for his money on how MISERABLE he can make us!

The US Misery Index combines Inflation with Unemployment...and Inflation is JUST starting to rear her ugly head!

http://www.miseryindex.us/customindexoneyear.asp


21 posted on 01/15/2010 5:26:42 PM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (Save the Earth. It's the only planet with chocolate.)
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