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California Storminess- Shades of El Nino
Accuweather ^ | Saturday, January 16, 2010 2:52 PM | Senior Forecaster Jim Andrews.

Posted on 01/16/2010 12:55:58 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

An upcoming week of stormy weather in California and much of the West will hearken back to many an El Nino-powered winter from years past.


To begin with, storm track will set up farther south than usual. Add to this that storms that will line up in a series that could number at least five, will tend to be quite strong.


Now, into the fray of back-to-back storms will waft plenty of tropical moisture bolstered by flow off El Nino-warmed equatorial seas.


Such are the makings for flooding rain and mudslides, deep mountain snows and thunderous surf.

(Excerpt) Read more at accuweather.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: stormwatch
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It all moves East from California.
1 posted on 01/16/2010 12:56:04 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: All
Yesterday's thread...some of the Graphics have changed....:

California Gets Slammed Next Week ( Stormwatch starts Now -Rainy Season starts with heavy Rains )

2 posted on 01/16/2010 12:58:19 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

We need the rain in California so bring it on.


3 posted on 01/16/2010 1:00:22 PM PST by chrisinoc
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

El Nino...GOOD! We need snow at Beaver Creek and Vail!

It’s BACK!

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif


4 posted on 01/16/2010 1:00:28 PM PST by WellyP
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To: kellynla; Brad's Gramma; pollywog; A CA Guy; BurbankKarl; lainie; bd476; ErnBatavia; ...

Today’s report.


5 posted on 01/16/2010 1:01:56 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Wait a minute! I thought GW was supposed to give us terrible droughts.

Which is it? The forecast continues for 5 - 10 foot of snow in the Sierra this week. I was at Donner yesterday. There's a good 2 - 4 feet base already.

6 posted on 01/16/2010 1:17:32 PM PST by 386wt
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To: 386wt

I live on the east side of the Sierras in N Nevada.

We got snow- over afoot- on the eve of Dec 6. It finally melted this past week, but there is still spots here & there. I finally saw my hoses for the first time in 5+ weeks.

I live at 4200’ and snow never lasts here more than 5 days. This was over 5 weeks. -19 was the lowest I had for temp, on night of Dec 8, but others in the valley got lower recordings. Frozen pipes everywhere.

100 gallon water tanks which I use to water the horses were frozen- in total. Got the last 3 giant ice cubes tipped over and tanks emptied on Tues- and I needed help to even tip tanks because of solid ice. I can tip over 800 pounds of water by myself because I can get motion of the water to help me. But not the solid ice cube of 100 gallons.
We are the closest to normal the area has been in almost 6 weeks. This week coming, we are warned there will be rain/snow from Sun noon thru Friday. Oh, goody.


7 posted on 01/16/2010 1:26:44 PM PST by ridesthemiles
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Ugh, how FAR East?


8 posted on 01/16/2010 1:27:12 PM PST by ReneeLynn (Socialism is SO yesterday. Fascism, it*s the new black. Mmm Mmm Mmm.)
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To: ReneeLynn

The jet stream goes all the way...around the Globe....


9 posted on 01/16/2010 1:34:34 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: ReneeLynn
It's not very clear yet where the Jet Stream is going...but they say it is gonna be very high velocity...current image:


10 posted on 01/16/2010 1:51:07 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Looks like Palm Springs will be green by march


11 posted on 01/16/2010 1:53:35 PM PST by cmsgop
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

You think that thing will manage to dump some snow on us up here in the Northeast?

I mean, I’m glad Cali is getting some rain, but...we’re just melting down here in SW PA. It was almost 50 degrees today. I see green grass!


12 posted on 01/16/2010 2:22:58 PM PST by ReneeLynn (Socialism is SO yesterday. Fascism, it*s the new black. Mmm Mmm Mmm.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; SouthTexas; happydogx2; NormsRevenge; fish hawk
Just last Saturday I attended a talk by three men who risked their lives to save stranded residents in the Eel river valley in Humboldt County from the flood of the century. Two helicopters crashed killing all on board. My brother in law and I went duck hunting during the worst of the event oblivious to what was happening. Here are a couple of quick links to the flood of 64 but there must be better ones then these...

Times-Standard

Senior News

13 posted on 01/16/2010 2:39:08 PM PST by tubebender (Some minds are like concrete Thoroughly mixed up and permanently set...)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Now some may think I’m nitpicking Ernie but you have that middle red arrow aimed directly at the control center of the Vast Bender Estate...


14 posted on 01/16/2010 2:41:29 PM PST by tubebender (Some minds are like concrete Thoroughly mixed up and permanently set...)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Finally! Some actual weather. The local news is going crazy out here...STORM WATCH 2010!!


15 posted on 01/16/2010 3:05:31 PM PST by TruJess
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
It all moves East from California.

A lot of the moisture drops out due to adiabatic cooling once it crosses the Rocky Mountains range...

16 posted on 01/16/2010 3:48:01 PM PST by FDNYRHEROES (In just His first 3 days, the War on Terror became the War on Free Speech.)
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To: tubebender

Just trying to alert you...watch for incoming....LOL!


17 posted on 01/16/2010 3:53:04 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The link provides the current location of the Jet Stream (sorry...do not know how to show it within the post). Note that the strongest portion is still far west of California. According to the NWS...Monday’s storm is looking stronger than originally forecast.

http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_pac_init_00.gif


18 posted on 01/16/2010 3:59:43 PM PST by halo66
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Batten down the hatches!!! This is going to be a doozy!!
We sure need the rain! Just hoping that our old river rock walls stay put!


19 posted on 01/16/2010 6:59:17 PM PST by pollywog (Romans 8:28)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Batten down the hatches!!! This is going to be a doozy!!
We sure need the rain! Just hoping that our old river rock walls stay put!


20 posted on 01/16/2010 7:01:12 PM PST by pollywog (Romans 8:28)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Sorry for the duplicates!:-((


21 posted on 01/16/2010 7:02:20 PM PST by pollywog (Romans 8:28)
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To: halo66

< img src= "url" >

remove all spaces except the one between img and src

:)

22 posted on 01/16/2010 7:17:34 PM PST by lainie (The US congress is full to the brim of absolutely disgusting thieves who deserve humiliating ouster.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; NormsRevenge; Brad's Gramma; A CA Guy; BurbankKarl; lainie; bd476; ...
afdlox updated at 1625 Saturday:

With more storms expected to continue through much of the week... there will be other threats that we expect to develop. Due to the instability expected with these storms...coastal areas may expect to see the threat for waterspouts. In the short range...there is a threat for waterspouts with the strong system on Monday. But the threat should be more substantial with the powerful system that is expected to hit the region on Thursday. In addition...some of the highest surf conditions we have seen in years is expected to develop around middle week. Expect further details on these threats to be included in future forecast updates.

Long term (tue-fri)...medium range model agreement is pretty good through middle week before they get out of phase. Both the ec and the GFS call for at least two more strong storms to Rake the Southland in the extended period. The GFS seems to paint the more dour picture with back to back powerful storms on both Wednesday and Thursday... with the Thursday event being perhaps the most powerful of the week...in a week of storms. The ec has the same two storms...but perhaps not quite as powerful...but still strong. On Friday...the GFS calls for a wet northwesterly flow with showers continuing through Friday with perhaps a break on Saturday. The ec...however... keeps the region under moist southwest to west flow...which looks wetter than the GFS. Regardless...the significant take away from the extended is that the storms are expected to continue through the week and into the weekend. This will likely be the wettest week we have seen since early 2005 and fairly similar to the first week in Feb 1998. This will bring the potential for widespread Rockslides and debris flows...even outside of recent burn areas. And...by weeks end...we will need to keep an eye on the rivers.

23 posted on 01/16/2010 9:13:20 PM PST by lainie (The US congress is full to the brim of absolutely disgusting thieves who deserve humiliating ouster.)
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To: lainie

Wow! Thanks so much...much easier than I thought! LOL


24 posted on 01/17/2010 6:36:39 AM PST by halo66
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To: lainie

IIRC Waterspouts are our equivalent of a tornado over the ocean...


25 posted on 01/17/2010 7:25:23 AM PST by tubebender
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To: lainie; Ernest_at_the_Beach

Lots of dark clouds again today, nothing has hit the ground yet here in San Jose..

The watch is on for the apartment buildings close to the edge in Pacifica, they put giant plastic sheeting over the slope of the Esplanade cliff .. if the surf gets nasty , one or both of the buildings, currently in danger, could go.

Here’s hoping the mudslides in all the fire zones and potential flooding elsewhere are less than expected.

I saw a local forecast showed a lower expected rainfall, an inch less overall.

fingers crossed..
fireplace lit..
Go Vikes!


26 posted on 01/17/2010 9:07:28 AM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Chuck DeVore - CA Senator. Believe.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
We be officially wet up here for an hour or more now,,

Local blob from Wunderground

27 posted on 01/17/2010 12:23:07 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Chuck DeVore - CA Senator. Believe.)
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To: NormsRevenge
Spending quality time...on the Games....San Diego may be on the way...7-0 over the Jets....

Getting rather dark down here,...not much wind.....as yet. Good luck up there.

28 posted on 01/17/2010 2:40:26 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: NormsRevenge

29 posted on 01/17/2010 2:42:01 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: NormsRevenge

Getting early wetness...still no wind.


30 posted on 01/17/2010 3:26:23 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: NormsRevenge

That’s a lotta rain, Norm! It’s raining lightly in the desert now. I thought it wasn’t supposed to start til late tonight.


31 posted on 01/17/2010 5:10:07 PM PST by lainie (The US congress is full to the brim of absolutely disgusting thieves who deserve humiliating ouster.)
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To: lainie

We have maybe a little over a half inch since noon, you should see a bunch down SoCal way tonight.


32 posted on 01/17/2010 5:21:31 PM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Chuck DeVore - CA Senator. Believe.)
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To: lainie; NormsRevenge

Light rain down here near Los Alamitos Air Base and the 405 & 22 Junction.


33 posted on 01/17/2010 5:41:08 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
Latest from NWS:

FLOOD WATCH

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
120 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL...VALLEY AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

.A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN.

THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY MONDAY...AND BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THE
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHWEST SLOPES IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS. THE
RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.

34 posted on 01/17/2010 5:46:01 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
(continuing)

THE FIRST STORM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND BRING RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY
BY MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE HIGH MONDAY...ABOVE 8000
FEET...SO LITTLE OR NO SNOW WILL FALL. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH DESERTS. A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY...BUT
SEVERAL STRONG STORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES.

THIS ALL WEEK LONG EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAINFALL OF 4
TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...AND 15 TO LOCALLY 25 INCHES ON THE
COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. EVEN THE DESERT LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AFTER BEING ABOVE 8000 FEET MONDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET WHICH WOULD CONFINE HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN
JACINTO MOUNTAINS. 2 TO 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT THE
HEAVIEST LOCATIONS...MAINLY BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

35 posted on 01/17/2010 5:49:00 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: chrisinoc
It's either El Nino or the Delta Smelt Fish.

A Judge picked a fish over the the People and God is correcting the error.

36 posted on 01/17/2010 5:51:48 PM PST by Kickass Conservative (It wasn't the eight years of Bush - Cheney, It was the last two years of Pelosi - Reid.)
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To: All
GOES Western US SECTOR IR Image


37 posted on 01/17/2010 5:53:43 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
This is the LA county area NWS:

4 products issued by NWS for: 6 Miles W Burbank CA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
342 PM PST SUN JAN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. .DAY ONE... TODAY A POWERFUL PACIFIC STORM WILL APPROACH THE STATE TODAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MARINERS WILL FACE THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATER TONIGHT. * HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS * .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A SERIES OF POWERFUL PACIFIC STORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW...BLOWING SNOW...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL CREATE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDE THREATS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIME ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND THURSDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK HAZARDOUS HIGH SURF IS LIKELY ACROSS THE BEACHES. MARINERS WILL PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK.

38 posted on 01/17/2010 5:59:02 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
*******************************EXCERPT******************************

see post #34 for link:

****************************

THE STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM DRIVING THESE STORMS IS OVER 200 MPH AND THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ONSHORE IN QUICK SUCCESSION. AS A RESULT THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH DESERTS AT TIMES...AND EVEN NEAR THE COAST...GUSTS COULD EXCEED 40 MPH WITH WHEN COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH.

39 posted on 01/17/2010 6:02:19 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The thing about 3-4” rain falling on us out here in the desert is, that’s literally a year’s worth in one week. Our average yearly rainfall is about 4”. It’ll be interesting.


40 posted on 01/17/2010 6:33:00 PM PST by lainie (The US congress is full to the brim of absolutely disgusting thieves who deserve humiliating ouster.)
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To: lainie
Looking at this it looks like some stuff is almost here...right now it is rather quiet down here:

Local blob from Wunderground

Click on the animate button in the upper right....

41 posted on 01/17/2010 7:23:32 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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Click on the animate button below the Graphic....sorry .


42 posted on 01/17/2010 7:25:04 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
List of conditions in California by selected California cities
43 posted on 01/17/2010 7:31:45 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
Santa Barbara at 8:52 pm is showing heavy rain this Sunday Night.....per the list accessible via link at post #43.
44 posted on 01/17/2010 8:56:26 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: lainie
Obama I think said we would get acid rain and that he would have to impose an acid rain tax to promote Democracy and freedom (of government employees and corrupt unions).
45 posted on 01/17/2010 10:02:10 PM PST by A CA Guy ( God Bless America, God bless and keep safe our fighting men and women.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

We’ve got a good steady rain goin’ up here near Edwards. I’m going to go to sleep listening to rain. It’s like Christmas!


46 posted on 01/17/2010 11:28:10 PM PST by lainie (The US congress is full to the brim of absolutely disgusting thieves who deserve humiliating ouster.)
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To: lainie

Not much heard during the night,...but we just finished with a nice downpour...quieted back down at the moment!


47 posted on 01/18/2010 7:52:24 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; All

They just cut in on local bay area TV.. nasty line of red or two.. high winds.. 60mph possible

http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/508.html

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Statement as of 11:02 AM PST on January 18, 2010

The National Weather Service in the San Francisco Bay area has issued
a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Santa Clara County in northern California...
this includes the city of Morgan Hill...
Santa Cruz County in northern California...

* until 1145 am PST

* at 1058 am PST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
line of severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph. These storms were located along a line extending
from Uvas Canyon park to 7 miles southeast of Uvas Canyon park... or
along a line extending from 7 miles north of Corralitos to 7 miles
southwest of Morgan Hill to 6 miles southwest of Morgan Hill to
Corralitos... and moving northeast at 25 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
San Martin and Morgan Hill.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare
immediately for damaging winds and small hail. People outside should
move to a shelter... preferably inside a strong building but away
from windows.

Lat... Lon 3721 12142 3698 12175 3711 12181 3741 12151
3725 12144 3724 12144 3723 12143
time... Mot... loc 1901z 224deg 23kt 3711 12177 3711 12173
3709 12170 3701 12173

CW


48 posted on 01/18/2010 11:14:30 AM PST by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Chuck DeVore - CA Senator. Believe.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Getting a steady heavy rain and very windy here in Eagle Rock.


49 posted on 01/18/2010 12:05:46 PM PST by pollywog (Romans 8:28)
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To: pollywog; NormsRevenge

Wind is picking up down here and had earlier small busts of downpours....guess the first storm is coming in....


50 posted on 01/18/2010 12:16:13 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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