Posted on 01/18/2010 12:49:41 PM PST by Maelstorm
BOSTON (FOX25, myfoxboston) - A poll released a day before the special Senate race shows Senator Scott Brown surging to a double-digit lead over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the race for the open Massachusetts Senate seat.
The shift in favor of the Republican Party is a potential disaster for President Barack Obama and his Democratic political agenda.
Brown has surged to a double-digit lead over Coakley in three Massachusetts communities identified as bellwethers, according to the latest SuffolkUniversitybellwether polling of the race for U.S. Senate.
Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody all show solid margins for Brown, the state senator running against Coakley. The cities were identified as bellwether communities because in the most recent "like election" - the November 2006 Senate race between the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy and Republican challenger Kenneth Chase - the results in all three communities were within 1 percentage point of the actual statewide results for each candidate. Additionally, party registration in those cities is similar to the statewide voter makeup.
"Brown has continued to build on the momentum that we saw last week in the SuffolkUniversity statewide poll," said David Paleologos, director of the SuffolkUniversityPoliticalResearchCenter in Boston. "There's still a day left, and a number of factors, including weather, can affect turnout, but the latest bellwether polls suggest a solid lead for Brown."
SuffolkUniversity released a statewide poll Thursday, Jan. 14, that showed Brown (50 percent) leading Coakley (46 percent) by 4 points. The results showed a race within a margin of error of 4.38.
The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:
Brown (55%) leads Coakley (40%) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2%, while 3% are undecided.
In Fitchburg, Brown (55%) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41%), with 2% for Kennedy and 2% undecided.
Peabody voters give Brown (57%), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40%), with Kennedy polling 1% and 3% undecided.
The bellwether polls are designed to predict outcomes and not margins. Suffolk's bellwether polls have been 96% accurate in picking straight-up winners when taken within three days of an election since 2006.
Results of the November 2006 survey in the three bellwether communities closely traced the final statewide outcome.
Those 2006 results were as follows:
· Statewide: Edward M. Kennedy (D), 67%; Kenneth Chase (R), 29%; blanks, 4% · Gardner: Kennedy, 68%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 3% · Fitchburg: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 30%; blanks, 4% · Peabody: Kennedy, 67%; Chase, 29%; blanks, 4%
Party registration in the three bellwether communities largely mirrors statewide registration, with the following breakdown:
· Massachusetts statewide: Democrats, 36%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 52% · Gardner: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 12%; unenrolled, 53% · Fitchburg: Democrats, 34%; Republicans, 11%; unenrolled, 55% · Peabody: Democrats, 35%; Republicans, 9%; unenrolled, 56%
Get out an vote tomorrow Massachusans.
The Democrats are committed to jumping off the cliff. Who are we to try and stop them?
"It don't mean nothing until you sign (VOTE) on the dotted line"
I don’t think even ACORN can overcome a 15-point deficit.
They can’t cheat if it isn’t close! Bring It Mass! Bring it!
It’s time for Marcia to look for a new day job.
It’s hilarious...she’s trying to paint herself as the champion of regular, Main Street folk, and that big, bad, Brown is on the side of the wealthy Wall Street elite.
Umm, Martha? Who’s that standing next to you at your rally? Obama. The guy that gives away BILLIONS to the financial fatcats. The guy whose administration is chock full of Goldman Sachs guys.
Nice try. Buh-bye.
HAHAHAHAHA (gasp)
HAHAHAHAHA
Now the weather is bad, too? Who will be more motivated to GOTV? The Tea Partiers, or the govt and union employees feeding at the trough and getting the day off today, who can’t even bother to show up at a phone bank for Marcia Croakly?
Let them do it some other place than the nation’s capital, please.
The six term, Dem former mayor of Quincy Ma endorsed Brown today. It’s going to be a blowout!
Keep it going!
Don’t rest until Wednesday AM!
Remember Curt Schilling!
The Dems are going to have to cheat their *ss off just to make it look close...a landslide will scare the pols out of their little minds...
The news media can only hide the real Obama for just so long. This poll is a reflection on what the country thinks of Obama’s healthcare bill- they DO NOT WANT IT!
Rassmussen has Coakley up by 2... this is waaaay too close to be celebrating yet. Especially when you throw in the dead guys, SEIU, ACORN and registered dogs.
>>It’s hilarious...she’s trying to paint herself as the champion of regular, Main Street folk<<
Like the regular Joes that go to Fennel Park...
Um...properly, we are called Massatuskites. =;^)
What do you expect her to do? Stand out in the cold shaking hands with the common people?
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