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FOOD SHORTAGE COMING AS FARMERS STRUGGLE
Moneynews ^ | January 18, 2010 | Dan Weil

Posted on 01/18/2010 8:10:50 PM PST by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Legendary investor Jim Rogers remains bullish on commodities and says the world will soon face food shortages.

"The fundamentals (for agriculture) have gotten better," he says.

"The inventories are now at the lowest they've been in decades, not in years.”

And that trend is just intensifying, Rogers tells CNBC.

Things are getting worse. Many farmers can’t get loans to buy fertilizer now, even though we have big shortages developing "

And what will be the end result of this dynamic?

"Sometime in the next few years we're going to have very serious shortages of food everywhere in the world, and prices are going to go through the roof," Rogers said.

Agriculture is his favorite sector in the commodity space, but Rogers likes other commodities as well.

Take oil, for example.

“Over the next decade or so, oil is going to go much higher, because known reserves of oil are declining at a very rapid rate,” Rogers said.

He also favors gold for the long term, saying that if it drops $200 an ounce, he’ll buy more.

But if you’re looking for precious metals to acquire now, Rogers recommends silver or palladium, because they haven’t soared as high as gold.

Many experts share Rogers’ bullishness on commodities.

Goldman Sachs, for example, sees the S&P GSCI Enhanced Total Return Index appreciating 17.5 percent this year.

“Demand is growing on a global basis,” Peter Sorrentino, a money manager at Huntington Asset Advisors, told Bloomberg.


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: foodshortage; foodshortages; foodsupply; jimrogers
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The offshore rig rate utilization rate in the Gulf of Mexico was 59.5 percent, down from 73.2 percent a year ago.

Translation: Oil prices increased during the year while paradoxically the rig utilization rate decreased 14 percent. Divergence.

Fewer rigs working means less oil discovered and developed. Expect oil prices of about $100/Bbls. in 2011 increasing to $200-300/Bbls. in about 2012.

Food prices will increase from the current levels as well.

1 posted on 01/18/2010 8:10:50 PM PST by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Must be time to panic then. Well, OK.


2 posted on 01/18/2010 8:13:36 PM PST by Ramius (Personally, I give us... one chance in three. More tea?)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

turn the water on in California’s central valley, already!


3 posted on 01/18/2010 8:13:53 PM PST by blueplum
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

4 posted on 01/18/2010 8:15:35 PM PST by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Farmers can’t get loans because the government is borrowing all that, in the form of selling bonds. The unpredictable, chaotic business climate fostered by government makes it a bad time to invest a lot of money. They’re just buying bonds.


5 posted on 01/18/2010 8:21:54 PM PST by GeronL (http://tyrannysentinel.blogspot.com)
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To: TornadoAlley3

Why do they call it canning and not jarring?


6 posted on 01/18/2010 8:22:35 PM PST by proudpapa (Obama - Worst One Ever!)
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To: blueplum
turn the water on in California’s central valley, already!

Tell the farmers in the Willamette Valley in Oregon to plow under their ornamental plants and put in food crops. I don't know about you but I've never found a decent recipe for rhododendron or arbor vitae?
7 posted on 01/18/2010 8:24:39 PM PST by Tailback
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To: Tailback

When people cant buy ornamentals for need of food the farmers will plant what pays.


8 posted on 01/18/2010 8:26:26 PM PST by Concho
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To: TornadoAlley3
Your post reminds me of a tale my late Father-in-Law used to tell. He was an insurance salesman during WWII and, for many years, it was common to have "Debit Routes". In other words, he would collect insurance premium weekly/monthly from customers in an area of Jacksonville, FL.

He told of visiting a woman and noticing that she had 50-100 5 pound bags of sugar stacked in her kitchen. Given that sugar was a "Rationed Commodity" during WWII, he asked her what she was going to do with all the sugar?

She immediately replied that she had been forced to purchase all the sugar before.... "THE HOARDERS DID"!

I remember many other bizarre tales about the behavior of folks during the WWII rationing days! Such actions were observed during the gasoline rationing during the Carter years!!!

Government "Planning" always results in unintended consequences!!!

9 posted on 01/18/2010 8:28:54 PM PST by ExSES (the "bottom-line")
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Not only that, but the soviets in the federal government are planning to take 59 million acres of US farmland out of production— no such thing as private property here— to use as a phony globalist ‘carbon offset’ and plant trees on it.

This is a plan by the feds that Ag periodicals have uncovered and is currently in the works.


10 posted on 01/18/2010 8:29:12 PM PST by hedgetrimmer
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

“Food prices will increase from the current levels as well.”

If the U.S. government killed the “ethanol as fuel program” and freed corn up for consumption and export, food prices would fall and the U.S. would be feeding the world again.


11 posted on 01/18/2010 8:34:09 PM PST by Rembrandt (.. AND the donkey you rode in on.)
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To: TornadoAlley3

Bump!


12 posted on 01/18/2010 8:52:54 PM PST by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

btt


13 posted on 01/18/2010 8:55:47 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: TornadoAlley3

She has Pelosi eyes.


14 posted on 01/18/2010 8:57:26 PM PST by edwords
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"The offshore rig rate utilization rate in the Gulf of Mexico was 59.5 percent, down from 73.2 percent a year ago."Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

INCORRECT.


15 posted on 01/18/2010 9:02:11 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: proudpapa
Why do they call it canning and not jarring?

It's less jarring to call it canning :-)

Besides, the noun "can" predates the noun "jar" by a few centuries, according to M-W.

16 posted on 01/18/2010 9:16:47 PM PST by Greysard
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To: Southack

Just another chapter in the Marxist playbook.


17 posted on 01/18/2010 9:16:47 PM PST by Eleven Bravo 6 319thID
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To: Concho
When people cant buy ornamentals for need of food the farmers will plant what pays.

You know that and I know that, but obviously the writer of the article doesn't know that.
18 posted on 01/18/2010 10:18:12 PM PST by Tailback
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To: Southack
The offshore rig utilization rate in the Gulf of Mexico was 59.5 percent, down from 73.2 percent a year ago.

If you look at the chart from ODS/Weekly Rig Count for the Gulf of Mexico, the information is just as stated.
59.5 % now, 73.2% one year ago. Less rigs working as compared to last year = future price increases in oil.

19 posted on 01/18/2010 10:36:00 PM PST by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba ("Vision is the art of seeing the invisible" - Jonathan Swift)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Major new oil finds/production, plus rising rig counts in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil, combined with China’s reduced demand, means lower oil prices.


20 posted on 01/18/2010 11:01:25 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: ExSES

Every year my garden gets bigger and bigger.

When I drive around the area I’ve seen more and more Veg gardens every year.

Last year I changed the name of my ‘victory garden’ to the;

........JOHN GALT MEMMORIAL GARDEN...


21 posted on 01/19/2010 3:51:32 AM PST by maine yankee
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To: proudpapa
Why do they call it canning and not jarring?

I guess the same reason they call it Ovaltine instead of Roundtine....yes ripped from Seinfeld...

22 posted on 01/19/2010 4:00:49 AM PST by cbkaty (I may not always post...but I am always here......)
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To: proudpapa
Why do they call it canning and not jarring?

I don't know, I've not gotten past asteroid myself.. :)

23 posted on 01/19/2010 4:06:41 AM PST by IamConservative (Liberty is all a good man needs to succeed.)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

‘“ Things are getting worse. Many farmers can’t get loans to buy fertilizer now, even though we have big shortages developing “’

First, fertilizer has been at all time highs for at least a couple yrs now. Its priced at levels well beyond what one might realize in crop prices. Chems and seed are the same way. These prices aren’t sustainable w/o (large) commodity price increases.

That said I know many guys in my area that just aren’t applying anywhere near the amt of fertilizer as in the past. Its not a matter of getting the loan its a matter of not wanting to carry the debt in an economy that all screwed up.


24 posted on 01/19/2010 7:07:39 AM PST by 556x45
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To: Southack
Try opening up your eyes and looking at the chart. 55.9% is less than 73.2% even in Alabama.

The large petroleum producers (processors like Exxon-Mobil, Shell, BP etc.) have not replaced their oil reserves for over 5 years (a declining, sinking asset). Exxon-Mobil is purchasing a natural gas producer (XTO), effectively abdicating their oil roots. Exxon-Mobil is betting that natural gas prices (which are separate and distinct from oil prices) are headed higher (looks like a intelligent business decision). Oil prices are headed even higher in the next 2-3 year time frame as compared to natural gas.

The companies do not have access to explore and produce, not only in the US, but around the world as well as they did when the companies were the "Seven Sisters". The petroleum industry is a worldwide industry. Yes, no doubt about it, the US Government has played a detrimental role in restricting offshore US exploration and production of oil.

Higher exploration costs are also involved. The "easy" oil is all gone i.e. the cost to replace that consumed Bbl of oil has definitely increased. I used to take at most 30 min. helicopter ride out to the rigs 20 years ago, now it's a 1 3/4 hr. ordeal out to the deeper more $expensive to produce from waters. The cost to transport one passenger is about $700/flight one way.

Brazil (Petrobas) is about the only company that has increased it's reserve base. There is no guarantee that the Brazilians will export that newly discovered oil so that you can stay in your cocoon of ignorance driving around in your Corvette in Alabama. The Brazilians have their own domestic consumption concerns. Don't count on that oil being exported to the US, the Chinese will be interested in it.

By the way, Investor Jimmy Rogers is from Alabama although he moved.

CNBC INTERVIEW VIDEO: Investor Jim Rogers

25 posted on 01/19/2010 9:20:09 AM PST by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba ("Vision is the art of seeing the invisible" - Jonathan Swift)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Oil is at $78 per barrel today. You claim that production is down, so oil will go up.

I’m pointing out that consumption is down, so oil will decrease in price.

Pick a timeframe. 1 month. 1 year. 1 decade. See who’s right.


26 posted on 01/19/2010 9:58:56 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Southack
Gasoline increased in price from $1.50/gal on Dec. 15, 2008 to $2.75 Unleaded plus today (with a decrease in demand). The rig utilization rate in the Gulf of Mexico DECREASED from 73% last year to 56% this week.

In 2012 -2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls.

Even T. Boone Pickens has stated that a free market does not exist in Crude Oil. That's your problem, you assume that a free market exists in crude oil. Replacement costs exceed consumption costs now.

27 posted on 01/19/2010 2:01:32 PM PST by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba ("Vision is the art of seeing the invisible" - Jonathan Swift)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

It’s looking grim for your oil inflation prediction: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/energy-resources/refinery+rate+drop+shows+crisis+downstream/2469373/story.html


28 posted on 01/24/2010 6:54:47 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Oil falling below $75: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2437368/posts


29 posted on 01/25/2010 10:26:24 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Rembrandt
If the U.S. government killed the “ethanol as fuel program” and freed corn up for consumption and export, food prices would fall and the U.S. would be feeding the world again.

True, but the recent spending and mismanagement of the monetary supply is creating hyper inflation which we'll see soon. Last week's attack on the banks will tighten lending, stymie future supply and create a false upward inflationary spiral for goods on hand.

End result, more money than product, shortages and misery.
30 posted on 01/25/2010 10:58:04 PM PST by BIGLOOK (Keelhaul Congress!)
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To: Southack

Sherlock,

Why don’t you try looking at the charts that you post with the rig utilization rate of 77% last year vs. 55.9% now???
JUST AS I STATED!!!!

This year is 2010. I am not concerned about how low oil goes in the short term. It’s the next move UP, UNDERSTAND?

In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls.


31 posted on 01/27/2010 2:56:54 PM PST by Comrade Brother Abu Bubba ("Vision is the art of seeing the invisible" - Jonathan Swift)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

My goodness! Is oil already deflated down below $73 this week?! $5 drop in how many days?? This is going to be a fun 5+ years of posts to you!


32 posted on 01/31/2010 10:01:59 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Man, is oil really down to $71 already?! Fascinating...


33 posted on 02/05/2010 2:43:57 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls."

$78/barrel today...

34 posted on 08/11/2010 11:20:06 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Down to $74.50 today...

35 posted on 09/16/2010 10:49:09 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Rembrandt
If the U.S. government killed the “ethanol as fuel program” and freed corn up for consumption and export, food prices would fall and the U.S. would be feeding the world again.

We are headed to the largest corn crop in the entire history of the world.

AND a mountain of surplus corn.

We don't have a shortage of corn, we hve TOO MUCH.

36 posted on 09/16/2010 10:53:25 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (If America falls, darkness will cover the face of the earth for a thousand years)
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To: Balding_Eagle

...and can you imagine how miserable anyone would be if his diet consisted of yellow dent field corn?


37 posted on 09/16/2010 10:55:54 AM PDT by Mr. Lucky
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To: Mr. Lucky
...and can you imagine how miserable anyone would be if his diet consisted of yellow dent field corn?

Yeah, that would be miserable, which is why burning to to heat our homes and fuel our cars is on the table.

38 posted on 09/16/2010 11:10:01 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (If America falls, darkness will cover the face of the earth for a thousand years)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Ooops, oil production is increasing: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2627052/posts


39 posted on 11/14/2010 1:22:01 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Oil below $88, and now it's 2011. Tick. Tick. Tick goes the clock...

40 posted on 01/07/2011 10:39:16 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

More than halfway through 2011 and oil isn't even at $100...

41 posted on 07/20/2011 4:25:47 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Less than 4 months until 2012 and oil is now down to $84...

The mind boggles at how long we'll have to go before you admit that you had no clue making your ridiculous $300/barrel prediction. ...but I'm up for years and years of mocking you in the meantime.

42 posted on 08/08/2011 2:39:59 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Just October, November, and December left until 2012...and oil is still in double-digits at $84/barrel.

LOL!

43 posted on 09/06/2011 12:20:14 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

Already October and oil is...down to $79/barrel. 2012 is almost here and the inflationists can't explain why prices are falling and falling and falling on the stock markets in the job markets in the housing market and on commodity exchanges.

Down, down, down goes the speed of money...

44 posted on 10/01/2011 1:32:43 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-boom-20111029,0,7414545.story?track=lat-pick

U.S. net petroleum imports have fallen to about 47% of the nation’s consumption, down from a record 60.3% in 2005, Energy Information Administration statistics show. It’s been 15 years since the nation’s reliance on foreign oil has been this low.

Several factors figure into the import decline, but a big one is a little surprising: U.S. petroleum exploration is experiencing a quiet renaissance with the help of technology and new drilling techniques.

The number of oil rigs in production in the U.S. has reached a 24-year high, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes. In 2005, domestic production was 1.89 billion barrels. This year, experts say, production is expected to surpass 2 billion barrels.

Over the last decade, geoscientists and engineers have come as close as technologically possible to creating a transparent image of the underground, bringing new life to old wells and finding billion-barrel formations, called “elephants.”

“What’s happening across the U.S. demonstrates how technology again and again opens new doors, and also old doors, that people thought were closed forever,” said Daniel Yergin, author of “The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World,” the newly released sequel to his Pulitzer Prize-winning book “The Prize.”

Bruce Bullock, executive director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University, was more specific: “Three-dimensional seismic technology has become much more sophisticated. New drilling methods allow them to penetrate formations that were once thought to be impenetrable. So we’ve seen a lot of investment dollars going back into areas that had appeared very unpromising.”

Orcutt is one example.

In 1901, wildcatters found “brown shale,” a sign that oil was present in exploitable quantities. But they bypassed that shallow layer and went straight down; various operators eventually drilled nearly 2,000 vertical wells that averaged about 3,000 feet in depth. Breitburn acquired the field in 2004 and determined that the shallow layer of diatomite — a very porous, lightweight rock — contained more oil than any other part of the formation.

“They didn’t have the science. They didn’t have a clue,” said Breitburn’s William S. Fong, senior staff reservoir engineer. “We have doubled the oil production in this field, and it is all coming from the shallow layer, no more than 900 feet deep.”

Monthly oil production at Orcutt has climbed to nearly 90,000 barrels from 50,000 barrels.

In Santa Fe Springs, another Breitburn oil field is delivering about 2,000 barrels a day rather than the 700 barrels a day it would have using old vertical well techniques. The gains have come from offset angle drilling, where the wells are dug at angles between 45 degrees and 80 degrees, into areas between old vertical wells where crude still remains, said Chuck Hawkins, Breitburn’s project manager.

Breitburn isn’t the only California oil company looking to reverse California’s long decline in oil production. Over the last five years, privately held Signal Hill Petroleum has buried 6,000 small yellow canisters around Long Beach and Signal Hill that contain sophisticated equipment so sensitive it can record the vibrations of a person walking past.

The devices work in tandem with the company’s fleet of “vibroseis” trucks, 68,000-pound vehicles that use hydraulics to bounce. The bouncing trucks produce vibrations that create images of formations as far as 3 miles underground, said Dave Slater, chief operating officer for Signal Hill Petroleum.

Slater says his small, 110-employee company and a subsidiary, the 70-employee Nodal Seismic, have sunk “tens of millions of dollars” into the effort.

“When we import oil, we really get no jobs out of it, no taxes from that oil. It’s just a huge suction on the economy,” Slater said. “And down below us, we believe there is a lot of oil that hasn’t been tapped.”

The leading edge of the production boom has come in parts of Texas, such as the Eagle Ford shale formation and the Permian Basin, as well as the Bakken formation, a huge reservoir under parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Saskatchewan, said Fadel Gheit, senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer and Co. Gheit added that much of the work is from smaller oil companies that few people are familiar with.

There’s so much oil coming out of the Bakken formation that it has outstripped the existing pipeline capacity to move it to refineries for processing. Railroads such as BNSF and Canadian National have been pressed into service to move some of the crude.

New production isn’t the only reason for the drop in foreign oil dependency. Ethanol now accounts for a larger share of every gallon of gasoline, reducing the amount of refined oil needed. In addition, U.S. demand for gasoline and other refined products has declined, in part from the global recession and subsequent weak economic recovery. Refineries also have gotten more efficient and waste less oil in processing fuels.

But the most important change has been “the ability to make the ground below seem transparent,” said Jonathan G. Kuespert, Breitburn’s senior geoscience advisor. “We were never able to do that before.”

ron.white@latimes.com


45 posted on 10/29/2011 12:26:26 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"Fewer rigs working means less oil discovered and developed." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

"The number of oil rigs in production in the U.S. has reached a 24-year high, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes."

www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-oil-boom-20111029,0,7414545.story?track=lat-pick

46 posted on 10/29/2011 12:28:15 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba
"In 2012 - 2013, Oil will be selling for $200-300/Bbls." - Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

LOL! Would you settle for $98/barrel midway through 2012?!

47 posted on 05/04/2012 6:54:44 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: All

...or $94?!


48 posted on 05/14/2012 2:06:17 AM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Comrade Brother Abu Bubba

...or $92.50?! Hey, which way is oil supposed to be hyper-inflating again?!


49 posted on 05/17/2012 1:42:34 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: proudpapa
Why do they call it canning and not jarring?

When the process of preserving food by heating in a sealed container was invented, "can" referred to any small container, and the original small containers were glass and glazed ceramic vessels of the sort we would now call "jars" or "jugs". The welded and hermetically sealed containers we now call "cans" were invented long after the process of food preservation by "canning" was invented.

50 posted on 05/17/2012 1:50:27 PM PDT by ArrogantBustard (Western Civilization is Aborting, Buggering, and Contracepting itself out of existence.)
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