You’re absolutely right. There’s a clear path for Mulvaney according to these numbers.
As an aside, it’s interesting to see the different spin on the same polling data, some from the exact same outlets...
“Poll: Spratt leads would be opponent” (The State)
“Poll says Spratt not supported by majority in district” (The State)
“Poll: Spratt faces challenges in November election” (The Herald)
“Poll: Spratt would beat challengers” (The Herald)
“SC-5 Poll: Good News For Spratt” (RealClearPolitics)
“Spratt leads Mulvaney by 7 points” (Politico)
“Spratt faces a battle, but at least he leads” (The Hill)
I noticed that, too, especially the local papers. At first they seemed to give an edge to Mulvaney, and then about half an hour later, the tune changed.
Think they got a call from the Chairman?