O'Bonzo's approval rating only at -3% in this district? 44% call themselves "moderate"? "Moderate" normally means: "liberal, but too gutless to admit it". They'll vote the wrong way when the time comes, especially since Spratt is a "moderate" too.
No need to abandon hope in SC-5 but I thought the district was more right-leaning than it appears to be based on this poll.
No need to be discouraged at all, and I tried to temper any wild expectations of Spratt cratering. These numbers are actually quite good, if you know the realities of the district:
- The district is very mixed, with overwhelmingly Republican parts in the west, trending Republican parts in the Charlotte suburbs, overwhelmingly Dem parts in the east that would just as soon elect another Jim Clyburn, and mixed parts at all points in between.
- The district has voted Republican by a very strong margin at the presidential level for at least the last decade. 2008 was less of a margin than 2000 and 2004 because of the Obama campaign’s concentration on the Charlotte media market, and McCain’s complete neglect of it, along with the huge black turnout.
- As of right now, Mulvaney probably has little name ID outside of York/Lancaster counties. Spratt is a 30 year incumbent, yet he’s ahead only 7. Mulvaney has yet to run any ads.
Like most places, we can’t sit back and expect some all-powerful ‘national trend’ to deliver us this district. It will take work. But as of right now, I actually think we have a better chance of picking this one up than we do NC-8, which has similar demographics and voting trends, and which the NRCC plans on targeting hard. (BOTH should be targeted of course, my point here is that SC-5 is even more favorable to us.)