Skip to comments.New Poll Shows Jim Moran Is Vulnerable [Matthew Berry within 3% of Moran!]
Posted on 02/01/2010 7:10:37 AM PST by AuH2ORepublican
New Poll Shows Jim Moran Is Vulnerable
The Tarrance Group recently conducted a poll for our campaign of likely voters in Virginias 8th District that makes two things clear: (1) Jim Moran is vulnerable in 2010; and (2) I am the Republican candidate who can beat him.
First, our poll found that Northern Virginians are clearly tiring of Jim Morans ethical lapses and offensive statements, and they are ready to see him go. Specifically, only 38% of likely voters believe that Jim Moran deserves to be re-elected. The plurality of likely voters, 40%, believe that it is time to give someone new a chance, while the rest of respondents were not sure.
Second, our poll found that I am the Republican candidate who can beat Jim Moran. In an informed head-to-head, when my background and experience are described to likely voters, as well as Jim Morans, the race is within the margin of error: Jim Moran 44%; Matthew Berry 41%. While there remain significantly more Democrats than Republicans in Virginias 8th District, the contest is a statistical dead-heat because I am able to win the independent vote and earn a significant share of the Democratic vote as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at berry2010.com ...
Is this guy pro-life or pro-choice? Saw nothing on his website but I did not look too hard.
It appears that the poll that showed him within 3 points was one that just described the two candidates by attributes, without mentioning political party, and asked people which they’d prefer.
I’d love to think Moran was vulnerable, but he was gerrymandered into an unwinnable district in order to get more republicans elected, and I’m not sure catching him with a live boy in his bed would make a difference — having him beat up a live boy on the street didn’t.
This is a poll from the Republican firm The Tarrance Group, but even if we account for that the findings are unmistakable. Liberal Democrat Jim Moran has represented his Northern Virginia district for two decades, yet only 38% of likely voters polled believe that he deserves to be reelected. And when likely voters were given a brief explanation of the background and experience of both Moran and conservative Republican candidate Matthew Berry, Moran leads by only 44%-41%. As many as you know, incumbents polling at under 50% are considered vulnerable, and those polling at 44% in a head-to-head math-up should be deemed extremely vulnerable.
2010 could be the year in which the anti-Semitic, bipolar, ultraliberal Jim Moran is finally sent packing, and Matthew Berry is the candidate that can get it done. To learn more about Matthew Berry, go to http://berry2010.com/. And, in case you haven’t read what I wrote about him a few weeks ago, here’s the post: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2426155/posts?page=10#10
the Talbot’s ladies would never vote for e Republican, why it simply isn’t DONE in Virginia.
You know how many Virginians it takes to change a light bulb?
1 to change the bulb and three others to talk about how much better the old one was
I think this seat was Repub before Moran won it.
In his website, Matthew Berry does not go into detail about his position on abortion, although he does subtly tip his hand by pointing out that one of the reasons why he opposes ObamaCare is that it would provide federal subsidies for abortion. In a district as liberal as the VA-08, it would not be a good idea for a candidate to shout from the rooftops that he is pro-life.
Moran also smacked his wife around.
Lord, please make this true. Jim Moran is the nastiest little sh!t to ever represent VA. How this little cretin has been able to survive after all the corrupt and criminal things he has been involved in is beyond reason. Further, he is the most ideologic representative that VA has. How we lost George Allen and have retained Moran is hard to fathom. Lets put him out to pasture. A nasty little demon of a democrat.
Yes, it was held by Republican Stanford Parris from his election in 1980 until he lost to Moran in 1990, and had previously been held from the 1966 election (in which William L. Scott picked up the seat) until the terrible Watergate election of 1974 (when Parris, who was a freshman Congressman, lost to Democrat Herb Harris).
I don’t think that the poll’s subjects were kept in the dark about the candidates’ respective political affiliations, merely that, in addition to the typical name and party disclosure, they were also given a brief description of the candidates’ background.
His bio says he had the honor of clerking for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Nice and I like the way he puts it. Clerking for Justice Thomas IS an honor.
He worked at Justice and was integral to the re-authorization of the Patriot Act. He worked on legislation to implement recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. He says he takes terrorism very seriously.
It appears he is gay, although not explicitly stated. I have no problem with that whatsoever as long as hes not pushing gay marriage or promoting fisting kits to school children. (Who someone chooses to make a life with is not my business and I don’t care as long as they don’t try to make it my business.)
Aside; Obama’s speechifying on TV, AGAIN!
I’d like to keep my eye on this race.
Yes, he’s gay, but he’s certainly not part of the “Gay Mafia” that pushes judicially created same-sex marriage or discussions of “fisting” in school. As you noted, he clerked for Justice Thomas (he also clerked for the equally conservative Judge Laurence Silberman of the DC Court of Appeals), which should put to bed any notions that he’s some sort of gay activist intent on subverting democratic majorities.
I’ll dance a jig if the Moron goes down. Democrats losing in Alexandria?
Here are some caveats about the poll from Redstate contributor Moe Lane:
VA-08: 44/41 Moran/Berry (Caveats).
[UPDATE] Welcome, Campaign Spot readers.
Said caveats are: Internal poll, D+16 district, and Morans still ahead by three. But a 44/41 Moran/Berry split at this stage is still noteworthy: add five points to Morans total and he still polls under 50% which means that hes vulnerable. I dont mind seeing a 40/38 split on try somebody new/’keep Moran, either.
Post-Massachusetts, its no longer reasonable to assume that anybody on the Democratic side is too safe to be defeated: so keep an eye on this race. Ive mentioned Matthew Berry before: if I was in his district Id probably be supporting him in the primary right now, not least because hes been engaging the new social media (which is a pretentious way of saying hes actively working to get support). And I cant [expletive deleted] stand Jim [expletive deleted] Moran. Watching that particular corrupt, anti-Semitic suckweasel go down in flames on Election Night would be a better present than a pony, and Ive always wanted a pony.
I saw Berry speak in December at the Arlington GOP meeting. There were a couple of good candidates for the House seat speaking that night, but I was blown away by Berry. I generally don’t hold out much hope here in the VA-08, but I think this guy has a shot. He’s good on the issues and presents them in a persuasive, intelligent way that will appeal in this district.
There is another Skywalker...
Not endorsing either. Just noting there are two announced candidates.
He looks like Wayne Duval from O brother where art thou.
haha! “is you is, or is you ain’t my consti-chints?” i love that movie...
The is great news. I’d love to see that hot head liberal nut be put in his rightful place, the unemployment line. This will be a tough race though and Berry is going to need lots of cash.
“I strongly oppose the government takeover of the health care system supported by President Obama, Jim Moran and Congressional Democrats.” More: http://berry2010.com/issues/health-care/
With happiness, I’m sending him some money.
I used to live a couple of blocks from Moran in Alexandria. He jogged around at times in too-short shorts. His legs are fat and pink. He did less jogging than chatting up his fawning neighbors who treated him like a celebrity. My neighbor across the street, Judy, gushed, “He’s like our very own Kennedy!”
Can’t make this stuff up, folks.
Regarding your story about Moran, I shouldn’t have read that so soon after wolfing down my lunch. : )
our own Kennedy...I’m guessing your neighbor has no idea how apt that is.
It is interesting that the poll conducted by the Berry camp is only a head to head poll -— Berry vs. Moran. There are 4 other Republicans to choose from for the nomination. I suspect that you could plug any one of the candidates into that same poll and get close to the same results. It’s not a pro-Berry poll, it’s an anti-Moran poll.
I suspect this is the poll Mr. Berry is promoting:
Mr. Socci, I don’t think it is productive to be spreading liberal talking points about fellow conservative Republicans whose goals are the same as yours (defeating Jim Moran this November), at least not without pointing out that you do not agree with such an assessment.
I don’t know the liberal blogger that posts the “Thoughts and Musings from the Left” to which you linked, but I do know that he does not understand what the derogatory term “push poll” means. A push poll is when, under the guise of conducting a legitimate public-opinion poll, the polling group merely provides false and/or scandalous information about one of the candidates with the aim of hurting such candidate in the election. A poll whose intent is to gauge how strong (or, as it turned out, weak) Moran’s support is among voters informed of his background (and of Matthew Berry’s background) is by no means a push poll. It shows extreme ignorance for that leftist blogger to believe that he was subjected to a push poll, since (i) only if a campaign had unlimited funding (which no Republican candidate in the VA-08 has or will have) would it even consider conducting a push poll so many months prior to the election (push polls are conducted by scumbags close to the election so as not to give the opponent time to respond) and (ii) The Tarrance Group, which conducted the poll, has a sterling reputation among Republicans nationwide to protect and would never agree to conduct a push poll.
As for the fact that neither you nor the other Republican candidates were included in the poll’s questions, well, the poll was an internal poll paid for by Matthew Berry’s campaign, and while Mr. Berry has posted excellent fund-raising numbers (see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2426155/posts ), I’m sure that he cannot afford to use his campaign funds to run polls for general-election match-ups for candidates other than him. Given the poll’s finding that only 38% of likely voters believe that Moran deserves reelection (with 40% believing that he does not and the rest undecided), you may well be correct that you or the other Republican candidates would also do relatively well in a general-election match-up with Moran, but I would guess that no other candidate would do as well as Matthew Berry given his particular background and cross-partisan appeal. You are certainly welcome to prove me wrong by hiring a reputable private pollster to conduct a poll of a Moran vs. Socci match-up (or convincing a public pollster to conduct such a poll for free).
In the end, we are all on the same team here, and we need for whomever emerges victorious from the primary to have the support of the other Republican candidates so as to build a winning coalition of Republicans, independents, moderate-to-conservative Democrats, and even liberals sick of having an anti-Semitic hothead representing them. I trust that you will abide by the pledge you made in the “Thoughts and Musings from the Left” blogspot to run a campaign on the issues and not engage in ad hominem attacks not just in the general election, but also in the GOP primary.
He'll have to come up with a position on the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) which is on Obama's agenda to repeal.
I’m sure that he will announce his position when asked. He’s a federalist, so I doubt that he’d be opposed to a federal law that allows states not to recognize same-sex marriages from other states.
Agreed, not very good re elect numbers for Moran.