Please note, the top of the eruption column has reached the upper atmosphere in this picture.
I know the following may be a little complicated for you, but here is a example showing the upper air flow paths.
Posted on 02/02/2010 10:20:41 PM PST by socialismislost
First part - yes.
Second part - there are not 10's of millions in the region. MT has a population of about 800K, WY even less and S. ID very low too. Nearest major population center is SLC.
The volcano is in a relatively remote part of the rockies, and most are there for ranching and farming.
The more likely eruptions will not be on the scale of the massive one 2.1 my ago, but probably much smaller.
First part - yes. Second part - there are not 10's of millions in the region. MT has a population of about 800K, WY even less and S. ID very low too. Nearest major population center is SLC.
You're the expert? Great!
Tell me, the map posted in #2, I thought was an ash fallout map...(The map that depicts the ash moving west and south, even tough the prevailing winds move west to east)...lol..But the map expert here suggested that this map was a *blast* map....Which covers *half* the country, all the way down to southern Texas....
So, once again, I ask you:
#1. Will the experts see the problem in plenty of time to evacuate tens of millions from the entire region?
#2. The last time this volcano went off, tens of thousands of years ago, was there activity leading up to the event? If so, how much activity, and what was the duration?
#3. At what specific point to you start evacuating people?
#4. And could you post a link to the evacuation plans and to the trigger point where evacuation plans are implemented?
Thanks
Tell me, the map posted in #2, I thought was an ash fallout map...(The map that depicts the ash moving west and south, even tough the prevailing winds move west to east)...lol..
Upper atmosphere winds account for some of the spread to the west and south. Since the ash is found in those areas - obviously winds at some level carried them there.
But the map expert here suggested that this map was a *blast* map....Which covers *half* the country, all the way down to southern Texas....
The map expert is not expert in this subject. For comparison - the Mt St. Helens main ash plume is also shown (though extremely too small) - that zone was not effected by the 'blast', but the ash.
#1. Will the experts see the problem in plenty of time to evacuate tens of millions from the entire region?
This has been answered already - yes and there are not 10 million people in the region that would be affected by the blast.
#2. The last time this volcano went off, tens of thousands of years ago, was there activity leading up to the event? If so, how much activity, and what was the duration?
My, that was a little before my time. the USGS Yellowstone Volcano observatory has a lot of info on volcanic history, pre eruption activity, etc.
#3. At what specific point to you start evacuating people?
If I were involved in the decision - it would depend upon the development of preactivity levels. If precursors indicated potential supervolcanic eruption - probably sooner than a smaller eruption. No cookie cutter answer available - just best professional judgement at the time.
#4. And could you post a link to the evacuation plans and to the trigger point where evacuation plans are implemented?
USGS levels are posted with info for all volcanic observatories. Local elected officials would be the ones to ultimately order evacuation based upon USGS recommendations.
Thanks for not answering any of the questions...lol
Is the map in an #2 ash fallout map, or a blast map...The other guy would not answer....lol
that was a little before my time.
Then how would they know if they were going to have any lead time in the next massive eruption?
Considering the boundaries shown on the map are labelled as ash beds, it is an ash fallout map.
So do I, in Denver, western AND eastern Nebraska, Aeizona and Missouri.
Yikes!
Which is why I said, the map is BS regarding today's climatic conditions, due to the fact the prevailing winds, would blow the ash from west to east, not east to west.
Have a cup of coffee and re-read, you may learn something.
ash fallout map.
The maps are of ash that is actually deposited in geological formations, so the talk of wind direction is somewhat immaterial - if you notice, the ash spreads in a fan from the source, with some going out at right angles to either side of Yellowstone, an event that huge could make its own course in the form of pyroclastic flows.
Maybe 70,000 years ago....Today, with prevailing winds, the jet stream etc, the ash would be blown mostly eastbound, before it ever reached the "upper atmosphere" as you say.
Check out weather satellite video...and tell me which direction the ash would move from that region. (Hint, with normal prevailing winds, it's not going to head west)
Mostly by speculating as to changes in earthquake patterns and increases in elevation - given that scientists have never directly observed a supervolcano eruption (thank God for that), they can only speculate as to what would lead up to such.
Think pyroclastic flows making their own distribution. If you look at the maps, the prevailing wind elongates the deposits to the SE, so wind does play a role, but the deposits can travel under their own power.
At Mount St. Helens, ten miles from the eruption, trees on the lee side of hills were snapped off and knocked over so that you could actually see the swirl patterns in the flows - and St. Helens was nothing compared to a supervolcano eruption.
No, talk about wind direction is not immaterial when dealing with ash fall out....
I live in So. Cal I've seen it rain ash in a big way...For days at a time....And where it rains ash my friend, it's directly dependent upon wind direction.
vulcanologists and seismologists have studied hundreds of volcanos around the world of all types and eruption styles, many of which are expressed in the volcanic features at yellowstone. One of the common precursors is the detection of the movement of magma towards the surface.
If you want further details on the eruption history, start here -
Yellowstone Volcano Observatory
I'm sure your internet saavy enough to follow the link.
You are comparing fire-generated ash to that of a volcano, which can produce pyroclastic flows that go where they want to go, and nothing can stop them except distance. Seriously, have you ever been to St. Helens? I have. The power unleashed there was stupendous, but it is a nothingburger compared to Yellowstone.
Are you basically saying that geologists mapping a contiguous formation of ashfall are wrong? That is nuts, you are engaging in speculation and they are mapping ground truth.
Please note, the top of the eruption column has reached the upper atmosphere in this picture.
I know the following may be a little complicated for you, but here is a example showing the upper air flow paths.
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