Posted on 02/09/2010 1:25:23 PM PST by doria253
BBC Ex-USSR: Iran aiming to provoke regional military conflict - Russian exper 91) ☆ By enriching uranium to a higher grade, Iran is embarking on a deliberate course of provoking a military conflict in the Middle East due to its unstable domestic situation, Aleksey Arbatov, head of the International Security Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said in a live interview to Russian Defence Ministry-controlled Zvezda TV on 9 February. He also said that Tehran will suddenly announce it has developed a nuclear weapon, and noted that 20 per cent-grade uranium was sufficient to develop a primitive but functioning nuclear device. On 9 February Iran announced that it had started enriching uranium to
Where’s the link?
Need to provide a link for this.
cent you can create quite a primitive, but nevertheless functioning
nuclear device”.
“Therefore the fact that despite all the beneficial proposals that
Russia, UN and the international community have made, Iran has
nevertheless started enriching to 20 per cent shows that Iran is
simply moving step by step towards nuclear weapons, is playing for
time and is using the talks as a screen,” Arbatov said. He also noted
that one day in the future, in the same way as Tehran announced its
intention to enrich higher-grade uranium, “it will be announced that
Iran has after all decided to create a nuclear weapon, citing all
kinds of threats”.
I will be the first: “Obama’s Fault.” “Democrat Leadership fault.” Pissing away time while allowing Iran to become nuclear. Of course it doesn’t help that our pres-ent and lib leaders WANT IRAN to have nukes.
Doria....do you have a link? I’d love to read the whole article. Thanks! :)
Hold on to your hats.
That’s pretty close to what I expect. Keep an eye on Hezbollah and Syria. I bet Bibi and Lieberman are getting very little sleep these days.
“The Iranian leadership is proceeding from the fact that the United
States will not launch a strike in upcoming months, primarily for
political reasons. President [Barack] Obama is a president of peace,
he has received a Nobel prize, and it is now just absolutely
unacceptable for him to start his actions by launching a third war
along with Iraq and Afghanistan,” Arbatov concluded.
Originally published by Zvezda TV, Moscow, in Russian 1000 9 Feb 10.
*ping*
OK, sorry. I didn’t know it was a translation.
Whew, folks. Things are about to get pretty ‘hugh and series’.
I hope Israel drops/missiles a lot of leaflet into the Iranian cities when they inevitably attack. It’s a vital part of the operation.
article was on bloomberg
Forget Iran’s punch, I want to see their Judy.
BBC has no such story, that I can find.
“He also said that Tehran will suddenly announce it has developed a nuclear weapon, and noted that 20 per cent-grade uranium was sufficient to develop a primitive but functioning nuclear device.”
Can one of the great Physics brains that we have here on FR verify this as a possibility?
Of course they think this.
Why wouldn’t they ?
(c) 2010 BBC Monitoring Former Soviet Union. Provided by ProQuest LLC.
All rights Reserved.
SubDES: YBX21854
SubId: YBX21854
In response to the presenter’s subsequent question of how justified
the talk of a war in the region was, Arbatov said: “This probably is
the case. The thing is that Iran’s current ruling regime, made up of
the Ayatollah [Ali Khamene’i] and the guards of the Islamic revolution
led by President [Mahmud] Ahmadinezhad, feel very uncertain. The
domestic situation in Iran is becoming more difficult. Mass opposition
has appeared and the regime has become unstable, and I think that what
they are now doing is a deliberate course towards provoking a military
thanks buddy
I thought you needed 95% pure to make one pop, but I’m no physicist.
Iran becomes nuclear while zero makes speech after speech after speech and marches on with his never-ending campaign stops. I don't think he got a copy of the President's job description.
“Therefore the fact that despite all the beneficial proposals that
Russia, UN and the international community have made, Iran has
nevertheless started enriching to 20 per cent shows that Iran is
simply moving step by step towards nuclear weapons, is playing for
time and is using the talks as a screen,” Arbatov said. He also noted
that one day in the future, in the same way as Tehran announced its
intention to enrich higher-grade uranium, “it will be announced that
Iran has after all decided to create a nuclear weapon, citing all
kinds of threats”.
Dirty nuke?
With Israel massing troops against Lebanon and Syria - either to prevent retaliation after an attack on Iran, or if war breaks out on their borders, the Ahmadi-Nejad arrogance is serious.
It could be a dirty nuke on Israel (regardless that it would also pollute Palestinians - or equally likely an EMP (electro magnetic pulse nuke bomb - no human damage) on a Western target.
Iran has had that technology for quite some time and has delivery capability from an offshore rust bucket cargo ship if need be.
Are freepers allowed to post content from Bloomberg?
TANKS,Hennie,,,
Bolton said they would announce this,,,(Fox),,,
Iran mite be able to build a “bomb” but a warhead is
another story...
I don’t think he got a copy of the President’s job description.
___________________________________________________________
It’s “above his pay grade”. *sigh*
Hmmm... sure makes you wonder what they’re up to.
I’m not a physicist but I wonder if a nuke of any real yield is possible with only 20% enriched Uranium. My understanding is that Uranium is generally used for (and limited to) the cannon-type weapon, as opposed to Plutonium being needed for the spherical-implosion type weapon. This already limits the yield even with 80%+ enriched uranium. I wonder if the cannon-type can even reach critical mass at only 20%?
We’ll see, I guess.
Thanks! I guess it can’t be posted here for copyright reasons. I’ll try to dig it up.
is this still open- or is it hiding in a cave in iran with the nukes?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/feb/19/iran-iaea-united-nations-nuclear-weapon
The IAEA report on Iran surprised many proliferation experts because, it recorded a dramatic jump in Iranian stockpiles of LEU at the enrichment plant at Natanz. In its last report in November, the IAEA estimated that Iran had produced 635 kg of LEU, based partly on Iranian government figures.
The agency now estimates that Iran had produced 839 kg of LEU by November, and that Iran had reported producing a further 171 kg in the following two months - a total of 1010 kg. The Iranian LEU has less than a 4% concentration of the fissile isotope Uranium 235. To make weapons grade HEU, with a concentration of 80-90%, it has to be further enriched, by being passed through massed ‘cascades’ of centrifuges.
“Do they have enough LEU to produce a ‘significant quantity’ of HEU [enough for a bomb]? Yes, if you count the U235 atoms then they do have a significant quantity of HEU,” a senior official close to the IAEA said. “But it is theoretical and they would need to use their full capacity to do so. They are not there yet. If they were to build another clandestine facility, then that would be different.”
Too many articles on FR without links today.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enriched_uranium#Low-enriched_uranium_.28LEU.29
Low-enriched uranium’ (LEU) has a lower than 20% concentration of 235U. For use in commercial light water reactors (LWR), the most prevalent power reactors in the world, uranium is enriched to 3 to 5% 235U. Fresh LEU used in research reactors is usually enriched 12% to 19.75% U-235, the latter concentration being used to replace HEU fuels when converting to LEU.
[edit] Highly enriched uranium (HEU)
A billet of highly enriched uranium metal
Highly enriched uranium (HEU) has a greater than 20% concentration of 235U or 233U.
The fissile uranium in nuclear weapons usually contains 85% or more of 235U known as weapon(s)-grade, though for a crude, inefficient weapon 20% is sufficient (called weapon(s)-usable); some argue that even less is sufficient, but then the critical mass for unmoderated fast neutrons rapidly increases, reaching infinity at 6%235U.[2]
The very first uranium bomb, Little Boy in 1945, used 64 kilograms of 80% enriched uranium. Wrapping the weapon’s fissile core in a neutron reflector (which is standard on all nuclear explosives) can dramatically lessen the critical mass. Because the core was surrounded by a good neutron reflector, at explosion it comprised almost 2.5 critical masses. Neutron reflectors and compressing the fissile core via implosion allow nuclear weapon designs that use less than what would be one bare-sphere critical mass at normal density. The presence of too much of the 238U isotope inhibits the runaway nuclear chain reaction that is responsible for the weapon’s power. The critical mass for 85% highly enriched uranium is about 50 kilograms (110 lb), which at normal density would be a sphere about 17 centimetres (6.7 in) in diameter.
Later US nuclear weapons usually use plutonium-239 in the primary stage, but the secondary stage which is compressed by the primary nuclear explosion often uses HEU with enrichment between 40% and 80%[3] along with the fusion fuel lithium deuteride. For the secondary of a large nuclear weapon, the higher critical mass of less-enriched uranium can be an advantage as it allows the core at explosion time to contain a larger amount of fuel. The 238U is not fissile but still fissionable by fusion neutrons.
HEU is also used in fast neutron reactors, whose cores require about 20% or more of fissile material, as well as in naval reactors, where it often contains at least 50% 235U, but typically does not exceed 90%. The Fermi-1 commercial fast reactor prototype used HEU with 26.5% 235U. For criticality experiments, enrichment of uranium to over 97% has been accomplished.[4]
Why the wild goose chase?
It’s a legit BBC story but no internet link yet. Bloomberg probably copied it.
I said this yesterday.
I don’t buy it at all. They are enriching uranium to 20% U-235.. hardly the contentractions needed for a bomb. I call shenanigans.... I dont doubt their intentions, but I seriously doubt their technical ability. I don’t think They will have a bomb any time soon, even the simplest Little Boy style bomb (the uranium gun bomb) would need at least 80% enrichment for them to get it to work....
Israel needs to leaflet Iran. Then tac-nuke each nuclear site. They’re dug too deep.
Otherwise, Omoslem gets his dream: Nuclear Moslem Iran.
I don’t think it is technical expertise is the limiting thing so far. Enriching uranium isn’t that hard, it’s just expensive and time-consuming. Then the cannon-type bomb isn’t all that hard to make either. They’ll definitely be able to build them. It’s just a matter of when.
So far, the word is that they still have a ways to go. But those reports could all be wrong.
i just checked the BBCs site and couldn’t find any reference to this story
Agree. No idea where this is from.
"By enriching uranium to a higher grade, Iran is embarking on a deliberate course of provoking a military conflict in the Middle East due to its unstable domestic situation," Aleksey Arbatov, head of the International Security Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations, said in a live interview to Russian Defence Ministry-controlled Zvezda TV on 9 February. He also said that Tehran will suddenly announce it has developed a nuclear weapon, and noted that 20 per cent-grade uranium was sufficient to develop a primitive but functioning nuclear device.Thanks hennie pennie. Sure would be hilarious if it went off unexpectedly during the broadcast, taking Ahmednutjob and the mullahs in attendence off to Hell.
Then you would be *quite* foolish.
*Bush* eliminated Iran's nemesis Iraq. With Iran's arch enemy neutralized, Iran moved defense dollars into building a nuke - smart move. Bush pissed away well over half a decade in Iraq (with no WMDs) while Iran was going full speed ahead with nuclear WMD construction right next door. Oooops.
It was *Bush's* intel agencies that came up with the patently absurd 2007 NIE report that stated Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program four years earlier in 2003 when Bush was also president!
In case people haven't noticed, Obama's policy on Iran is exactly the same as Bush's, that is, don't do a damned thing, look the other way, and at most threaten some sanctions you know will have no effect.
This little problem of a nuke in the hands of a Twelver didn't start 1/20/2009 and now the world has a big, big problem.
LOL, never a dull moment when YOU are posting!
Bush’s plans were to take care of Iran after Saddam was removed from Iraq.
But Iraq became a bit more difficult that Bush expected, and the NIE report doomed his plans on Iran.
I don’t believe that it was Bush’s agents that came up with the NIE report. It was more like Democrat/liberal sympathizers within the intelligence community.
Per this, no.
BUT you can always post a link. That's always legal.
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