Posted on 02/09/2010 4:52:26 PM PST by SeekAndFind
For much of the past decade, "declinism"--the notion that America is heading toward a deadly denouement--has largely been a philosophy of the left. But more recently, particularly in the wake of Barack Obama's election, conservatives have begun joining the chorus, albeit singing a somewhat different variation on the same tune.
In a recent column in TheWashington Post George Will illustrates this conservative change of heart. Looking over the next few decades Will sees an aging, obsolescent America in retreat to a young and aggressive China. "America's destiny is demographic, and therefore is inexorable and predictable," he suggests, pointing to predictions by Nobel Prize economist Robert Fogel that China's economy will be three times larger than that of the U.S. by 2040.
Will may be one of America's great columnists, but he--like his equally distinguished liberal counterpart Thomas Friedman--may be falling prey to a current fashion for sinophilia. It is a sign of the times that conservatives as well as liberals often underestimate the Middle Kingdom's problems--in addition to America's relative strengths.
Rarely mentioned in such analyses is China's own aging problem. The population of the People's Republic will be considerably older than the U.S.' by 2050. It also has far more boys than girls--a rather insidious problem. Among the younger generation there are already an estimated 24 million more men of marrying age than women. This is not going to end well--except perhaps for investors in prostitution and pornography.
In the longer term demographic trends actually place the U.S. in a relatively strong position. By the end of the first half of the 21st century, the American population aged 15 to 64--essentially your economically active cohort--are projected to grow by 42%; China's will shrink by 10%. Comparisons with other competitors are even larger, with the E.U. shrinking by 25%,
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
An interesting look at China’s problems, and it does have them.
That’s better, truthguy.
Let’s reiterate what you wrote:
“I’m not a quitter and never have been....I will fight on to the end....We have a wonderful constitution...Yes many people will come to there senses...I will do everything I can to fight this...”
That reads much better. Welcome to the fight, truthguy. See you on the frontline.
Unpegging the dollar from gold, and running huge deficits is the main thing killing our per capita production and earning capacity in terms of real wealth (ppp or gold). The reality is, we’ve been living under a socialist progressive monetary system for 39 yrs. It’s really starting to show. A journeyman carpenter had about as much real affluence in 1969 as a two income family pulling down $150k/yr now. Any perceived difference is the result of organic technological progress, longer work hours, and efficiency gains from the PC revolution.
I think of demographics, et c., as a sideshow - kind of like CO2 and warming. China has always had more people than us. Monetary policy is the main driver. Japan shot itself in the foot back in the 90’s. We did the same 1971-1980, and starting again in about 2000. Whether China will follow them and us off the cliff remains to be seen. If they’re smart, they’ll keep their thumb on the scales until the US is deindustrialized beyond repair. Another decade or two - tops. After that we’ll be just another permanently moribund and stratified socialist zombie. Russia sans the good vodka or the UK with better teeth.
The potential exists for us to recover fairly quickly if something is done in the next 5-10 yrs. Would that be allowed to happen? The ppl benefitting have got a strangle hold on the banking system and both political parties. One cannot avoid pondering the further possibility that this is also some form of ransom to the PRC for military peace.
“Liberalism is just communism sold by the drink.”
-P.J. O’Rourke
A large population of young men who don’t get laid on a regular basis is a very dangerous thing.
Complaints of China’s ascent and the U.S.’ collapse are overly pessimistic?
If you say so. America owes China lotsa money - truckloads and boatloads of money. And America, thru Social Security, Medicare, Welfare, and government pensions, promises, or will promise, its citizens truckloads and boatloads of money. Forbes guy don’t see a problem here?
This is an excellent article; all doom’n’gloomers should be assigned a review of it and have the content count for half their final grade.
It’s an interesting opinion (my eyes usually glaze-over when discussing dempographics), because it contains a historical perspective, something the “this time things are different” crowd cannot provide.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.