Skip to comments.(Canadian) Parliament Report Sounds Alarm: Low Birth Rate + Ageing = Financial Crisis
Posted on 02/18/2010 4:13:20 PM PST by wagglebee
OTTAWA, February 18, 2010 (LifeSiteNews.com) - One of the first official reports to indicate the disastrous consequences of Canadas long-term below, replacement birth rate was released in Ottawa today by Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page. While pro-life leaders have been warning of the impending disaster for years as abortion and contraception have wreaked demographic havoc, the financial fallout is beginning to strike home to governments worldwide.
Taking into account Canadas steady 1.5 birth rate, far below the 2.1 replacement rate, along with the accompanying ageing of the population, the report warns that a major demographic transition is underway.
During this time, the ageing of the population will move an increasing share of Canadians out of their prime working- age and into their retirement years, says the report. With an older population, spending pressures in areas such as health care and elderly benefits are projected to intensify. At the same time, slower labour force growth is projected to restrain growth in the economy, which will in turn slow the growth of government revenue.
The financial result is devastating, says the report. The Governments current fiscal structure is not sustainable over the long term, says the report. In order to compensate for the low birth rate the report says there must be very substantial increases in taxation and major cuts to government services, amounting to 14 to 28 billion dollars.
The parliamentary report follows about two and a half years after a Canadian Senate committee released a report on demographics, forebodingly entitled "The Demographic Time Bomb: Mitigating the Effects of Demographic Change in Canada".
In that report the auditor general of Canada was reported as saying: The demographic die is cast: there is little we can do to reverse or even slow the ag(e)ing of Canadas population over the coming decades. But it is certainly within our power to plan better for it. And better planning begins with better information concerning the long-term fiscal implications of the coming demographic shift.
LifeSiteNews (LSN) spoke with demographer Robert Sassone, PhD, for some perspective on the findings of the report. Sassone, author of the Handbook on Popoulation, explained that the situation boils down to this: Too many needy people and too few workers means big trouble ahead for Canada.
According to the UN World Population Prospects, the 2004 Revision, Canadas births during the 1950-1965 baby boom years averaged 436,000 per year. These are the people who will soon retire, leaving the workforce and joining those needing social security payments and other assistance from the government, explained Dr. Sassone. In contrast, less than 400,000 were born every year since.
This much smaller number of people entering the workforce will now be faced with paying the taxes for the benefits of the much larger number of baby boomers reaching retirement age each year beginning in 2015. The number retiring each year will be substantially greater than the number entering the work force each year, so the total number of workers will decline as the amount of money required for retirees skyrockets.
Unfortunately the scenario is a spiraling one and gets successively worse. Another serious problem is that as these baby boomers age, they will require far more medical care, so Canadas medical system will have to cope with a vast increase in demand and a substantial decline in medical personnel, says Sassone. But these near future problems will be tiny compared to what we face after 2030. The increased taxes necessary due to the birth dearth and the desire for new technology such as computers, Ipods, cell phones, et al. make it harder for young families to afford new babies.
The solution to the problem says Sassone will not be found in immigration. He explained:
In the past Canada could solve this problem of too few babies, then too few workers by encouraging massive immigration, but can no longer do so for four reasons. 1) These problems caused by past low birth rate make Canada a far less attractive country to immigrate to; 2) the number of babies born in the world has declined every year since 1985-1990 so there are fewer young workers seeking to immigrate; 3) new technology and the improving world economy have enabled most formerly poor countries to improve living conditions so that fewer want to immigrate, and 4) Europe and the US are now competing with Canada for large numbers of immigrants, making it harder for Canada to attract immigrants.
The key to solving the problem lies in increasing the fertility rate. And beyond making abortion illegal, which will help, Dr. Sassone said, we must change the attitudes of people towards having babies.
The mainstream media, and especially the entertainment media is key in the battle. The media for 40 years has been trying to diminish the fertility rate, said Sassone. I have attended meetings starting in 1970 where writers and producers were invited and told they had to reduce fertility to save the world and were offered a prize for the best TV program in the next year to reduce fertility.
Such ventures may sound conspiratorial, however the evidence for them abounds. One such group Population Communications International boasts of their efforts on their website: http://www.population.org/
See the full report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer here.
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No problem, just allow as many muslims as you can find into the country. Worked for GB.
Didn’t Canada ban Mark Steyn’s “America Alone”????
parsy, who says Karma’s a bummer
No. I gave my husband a signed copy, and it was available in book stores here.
Imagine that < /scarasm> ...I believe the low birth rate and the baby boom drain on Social security is why the government is intentionally turning a blind eye to the illegal Mexican invasion..
Canada used to give a “baby bonus” because they have so much sparely populated land.. but hey...the new car and a 5 thousand square foot house call our pampered children of 2 child families more than having a family..
Thanks for the ping. The Christians had this figured out decades ago, of course, and to its credit, the Catholics said birth control was a no-no long before anyone else realized the long term devastation of the entire concept. (Just don’t get all uppity about it. . . . )
I just finished a borrowed copy of it a few weeks ago. On the cover it said something like that. Glad that it didn’t happen.
Social Security is a Ponzi scheme which was workable in the early 1930s because it was not unusual for a person to die in their 40s, 50s and 60s from heart attacks, polio and complications from surgery.
The polio vaccine, modern antibiotics and medical advances changed this dramatically, but the scheme was still viable because of the Baby Boom.
People paying attention would have possibly thought that Social Security would get stretched, but would still work assuming the Baby Boomers reproduced at historically predictable rates.
But nobody knew at the time (and this IS NOT a reflection on individual Boomers, but the generation as a whole) that the Baby Boomers were the most selfish and self-absorbed generation in the history of the world. They were raised by parents who grew up during the Great Depression and decided to overcompensate by giving the Baby Boomers EVERYTHING they wanted. In the 1960s the Boomers demanded and got the Pill and a decade later they demanded and got abortion. So, instead of having children to care for them in their retirement years, they killed them in order to be able to afford bigger houses and more cars.
Yep. I ain’t even Catholic, but the Popester had this one right. Maybe when I go back to church one of these days, I’ll head that way. Heck, I even like mackeral. I’ll fit right in.
parsy, who hasn’t been comfortable with the Southern Baptists ever since they stopped believing in donosaurs
These are the effects of pyramid schemes.
I recommend against it. Find a good Reformed Church.
I’m currently visiting relatives in southern Calgary and was pleasantly surprised to learn the LDS or Mormon congregations in the area average over 4 children per family.
Too bad the overall size of the LDS community is too small to make a difference to our demographic collapse.
Still, I’m doing my part, 6 kids so far and hope to have another in a few years!
I volunteer to assist Canada with a baby boom.
A bunch of little Canadian Army Air Corps?
But the article is right, there is a world wide demographic crash on the way. And the results will be rather interesting.
Nope. The Toronto Public Library system has >50 copies in circulation.
all they have to do is give out some visas to Filipinos, and half our town will move there. US is first choice, and Canada and the UK are number 2 and 3 choices.
(We have a couple relatives there already).