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Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor ^ | 2/19/2010

Posted on 02/19/2010 10:57:29 PM PST by bruinbirdman

Al-Qaeda has never attempted to seize and hold strategic territory, but this may be about to change, according to an audiotape message from the deputy leader of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). In the 12-minute statement, Sa’id al-Shihri (a.k.a. Sufyan al-Azidi) outlined a new strategy that would involve Islamist fighters from Somalia working in coordination with AQAP fighters in Yemen to secure both sides of the vital strait (al-Malahim Establishment for Media Production, February 8).

Some 30% of the world’s annual trade passes through the narrow Bab al-Mandab (“The Gate of Tears,” thanks to its navigational hazards). Passing Djibouti and Eritrea on the west and Yemen on the east, the strait connects the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Commercial ships entering or leaving the southern end of the Bab al-Mandab must already contend with pirate-plagued shipping lanes in the Gulf of Aden.

Al-Shihri suggested that controlling the Bab al-Mandab and bringing it “back under the protection of Islam” would “create a great victory and international power for us… Then the strait will be closed and the grip will be tightened around the throat of the Jews, because the U.S. supports them through [the strait], by means of the Red Sea in particular.” Al-Shihri claims “the Jews” are mobilizing their agents to oppose this, especially those in the “agent governments” of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Al-Shihri mentions in particular Egypt’s Lieutenant General Omar Sulayman, the director of the Gihaz al-Mukhabarat al-Amma (Egyptian General Intelligence Services) since 1993.

Following the offer of Somalia’s al-Shabaab Islamist movement to send fighters to join AQAP in Yemen, al-Shihri praises his “great brothers in Somalia” and says they will operate on two fronts in the upcoming battle with the United States. “You and we are standing on the two banks of the Bab al-Mandab… We shall expel our enemies. We should complete each other in our war against our enemies, until God grants us victory or martyrdom, God willing.”

Elements of the Arab press quickly pointed out that al-Qaeda’s ambition may be beyond its reach. “Control of the Bab al-Mandab might not be easy, especially as it does not possess heavy weapons and modern boats that can be used for this purpose, but this does not mean it does not possess the logistical capabilities that can disrupt navigation in this vital international passageway” (al-Quds al-Arabi, February 9). Nevertheless, Yemeni government officials said all such threats were taken seriously (al-Hayat, February 9; [Yemen Defense Ministry], February 10).

Somalia’s Minister of Information, Dahir Mahmud Gelle, urged the international community to take steps to eliminate AQAP and al-Shabaab to avert the risk to the global economy posed by a seizure of Bab al-Mandab (Radio Gaalkacyo, February 10).

TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: alazidi; almandab; almandabstrait; alqaeda; alqaida; alshabaab; alshabab; alshihri; aqap; babalmandab; democrat; democrats; globaljihad; internet; jihad; shabaab; somalia; sufyanalazidi; yemen

1 posted on 02/19/2010 10:57:30 PM PST by bruinbirdman
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To: bruinbirdman

In order to do anything in the Gulf of Aden, you have to be out there, visible and a sitting/moving duck. Once the Allies get off their asses and start a 24/7 UAV aerial surveillance and attack program, it will be easier to spot boats from Somalia moving out beyond traditional fishing grounds.

There have been no reports of allied naval operations against the pirates which have resulted in them being killed and captured despite a report today that they have been successful in preventing more hijackings. That doesn’t sound right because at least 4 ships were reported seized by pirates within the last few weeks, and ransoms paid on at least one major tanker.

Now, all the above is predicated on no knowing what our Special Ops guys are doing in Somalia and Yemen, as well as at sea, but until I see the bodies floating in the Gulf, I’ll be skeptical.

UAVs give us the ability to maintenance a massive aerial surveillance program at less cost than it does for deploying ships who never seem to be in the right place at the right time.

This sounds more like an Al Qaeda propaganda ploy to shift attention away from the fact that their operatives in Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan are getting slammed (literally, by JDAMS and Hellfire missiles) as well as getting shot or captured.

Unfortunately our military commanders and political military leaders/advisors are a bunch of chickenshits and spent more time trying to preserve their jobs (Gates, Mullens, Casey, Jones, and Blair/Brennan - on the intelligence side) than to take the fight to the enemy and to destroy them.

The Rules of Engagement are horrible and responsible for getting our soldiers killed in Afghanistan. Emails I’ve gotten thru friends from soldiers in the field, speak of a demoralization among the troops because their commanders are often afraid to bring down the wrath of God on legitimate targets because of the possibility that civilians might be nearby.

Tough shit. That’s war. Kill the enemy and you won’t have to worry about civilian casualties.

Time that our leaders of all stripes remember that we are at war, and act like it.

2 posted on 02/19/2010 11:13:20 PM PST by ToTheMax
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To: bruinbirdman

Sounds like they want to start a war.

3 posted on 02/19/2010 11:14:00 PM PST by DrGunsforHands
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To: bruinbirdman

The only way they could do this concievably is though mining the strait, US 5th fleet might have something to say about that, and its not likely Saudi Arabia is going to be happy with it either. AQ is going to have a hard time making good on this threat.

4 posted on 02/19/2010 11:15:37 PM PST by world weary
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To: bruinbirdman

This is great news!

Now, women and chlidren (those without bomb belts), start to move away from the area, as the fiery incoming will turn your home and country into rubble.

Oh wait a moment!

We forgot that this is a Zer0 administration!

Women and children, you have a few more years before you need to move out. Meanwhile, give a shout out for Hitlery, our SOS, whilst she spews more bullsh1t for you peons to endure your torture!

5 posted on 02/19/2010 11:18:11 PM PST by Noob1999 (LOOSE LIPS, SINK SHIPS)
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To: bruinbirdman

6 posted on 02/19/2010 11:20:16 PM PST by I see my hands (_8(|)
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To: bruinbirdman

Interesting, wrote a graduate academic paper on chokepoint terrorism in the Gulf of Aden region initiated by al Qaeda last year. Very interesting. Bookmarked.

7 posted on 02/19/2010 11:21:23 PM PST by cranked
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To: world weary

Al Qaeda is going to have an easier time than me here think. Al Qaeda has sooooooo many ways that they can do this and limit the US and Coalition naval forces ability to prevent such, as well. Nonetheless, til al Qaeda backs up their threat, it all amounts to rhetoric.

8 posted on 02/19/2010 11:24:28 PM PST by cranked
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To: cranked

Umm, me = many

9 posted on 02/19/2010 11:24:50 PM PST by cranked
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To: world weary

I don’t think they can do much or they’d act first and boast about it after.

Probably more an attempt to have some fresh jihad propaganda to distract from what’s happening to them elsewhere.

No doubt they may sometimes attack a ship or lay some mines (if they can acquire enough to matter), but they’d have to deploy a lot of continuous capability to be able to control that area.

Anyway, another reason to keep exterminating them, and maybe it will give some new motivation to Egypt, the Gulf States, and Europe to care about stomping out jihadists.

10 posted on 02/19/2010 11:27:44 PM PST by Enchante (Obama and Brennan think that 20% of terrorists re-joining the battle is just fine with them)
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To: bruinbirdman

11 posted on 02/19/2010 11:30:43 PM PST by I see my hands (_8(|)
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To: cranked

If they have the balls to show their face, (which they don’t)They would be exterminated. These cowards only do things covertly.

12 posted on 02/19/2010 11:31:19 PM PST by o-n-money
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To: DrGunsforHands
Suicide bomber dolphins.

But... I'll bet they forgot to take PETA into consideration while doing their strategic planning... in which case they're screwed.

13 posted on 02/19/2010 11:34:27 PM PST by Cementjungle
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To: I see my hands

There’s a VERY GOOD reason this is occurring near KENYA, Somalia, and the Sudan - these are all three places where the Obama/Odinga Luo tribe is a significant minority and many of their Muslim memers are working with Al Qaeda, a subsidiary of the global Muslim Brotherhood Network.

Obama himself was honored as a SOMALI Muslim elder in Late Aug. of 2006 on his “fact-finding mission” to Kenya and about five other African nations that he actually went on to campaign in person for the election of his blood thirsty first-cousin, Raila Amollo Odinga, to the Presidency of Kenya. Odinga is currently Kenya’s Vice President, a position created for him when after rioting and the deaths of 1500 people (including 50 Pentecostal Christians) and displacement of 600,000 others, Odinga only agreed to concede the election if he was offered the Prime Ministership. Obama’s Uncle Oginga Odinga was Vice President of Kenya while Obama’s father was a top economist in Kenya’s finance Ministry in the Kenyetta Administration in Kenya in the mid 1960s which was the most corrupt ever in Kenya and took its orders from and was directly financed by the Soviet Communist government.

Al Qaeda has been at war with the U.S. since the firefight in Mogadishu, Somalia BECAUSE we the infidels defiled Islam’s Somali territory.

“OBAMA’s shocking AL QAEDA link”

“Book links OBAMA to massacre of Christians”
“BO Campaigned for Kenya Muslim Terrorist”

The Kenya Connection [Barack Obama, Raila Odinga]

“OBAMA-backed ally forged pact with radical Muslims”
“Push for Islamic Courts in Kenya Alarms Christians”

14 posted on 02/19/2010 11:38:24 PM PST by BIOCHEMKY (I love liberty more than I hate war.)
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To: I see my hands

Here’s a more fleshed out account:

“Obama, the Black Panther Party (BPP), Black Liberation Army (BLA), Weather Underground (WU), global Muslim Brotherhood (MB) network, Al Qaeda, and Kenyan and American Politics are All Interconnected”,_the_black_panther_party_bpp,_black_liberation_army_bla,_weather_underground_wu,_global_muslim_brotherhood_mb_network,_al_qaeda,_and_kenyan_and_american_politics_are_all_interconnected.thtml

15 posted on 02/19/2010 11:41:31 PM PST by BIOCHEMKY (I love liberty more than I hate war.)
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To: cranked
Interdicting a choke point is alot harder than you might think, unless you have shore based heavy weapons, FPB's or mines you can't do much. Hence why I said mining is probably the way they'd chose. Messing with Nav markers is possibly one way they could do it, but with the prevelance of GPS on ocean going vessels it is of limited use.

Besides this has been thought through years before by Naval planners when we thought they might try this.

16 posted on 02/20/2010 1:08:21 AM PST by world weary
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To: Enchante

I agree. I don’t think this is going to amount to much from them, but gives us more ammo to make the case for continually hunting them.

17 posted on 02/20/2010 1:09:53 AM PST by world weary
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To: bruinbirdman

do these fricken ragheads have any idea that the only reason they or any of their pathetic relations are alive is because we are showing the restraint of civilized people? Do they have any idea what will happen to them and all their little rathole countries and including the centers of the heathen belief if they ever really piss us off? Take your best shot you sand vermin , we are waiting to wipe you off the face of the planet and totally eradicate you and all your ilk from the fabric of humanity . The world will be so much better off without any of you .

18 posted on 02/20/2010 1:16:19 AM PST by LeoWindhorse
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To: LeoWindhorse
"we are waiting to wipe you off the face of the planet and totally eradicate you "

Gotta wait for a Republican president.


19 posted on 02/20/2010 1:35:03 AM PST by bruinbirdman ("Those who control language control minds.")
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To: bruinbirdman

they themselves shall bring their own ultimate fate down upon them

20 posted on 02/20/2010 2:02:16 AM PST by LeoWindhorse
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To: Cementjungle
Our Dolphins will kick their dolphin's ass.

US Navy Marine Mammal Program

21 posted on 02/20/2010 2:23:25 AM PST by csvset
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To: world weary

I say bring it. Would like nothing more than to turn them into dust.

22 posted on 02/20/2010 3:17:27 AM PST by RU88 (Bow to no man)
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To: bruinbirdman

Been there...U.S.S. Anchorage LSD-36; March, 1980.

23 posted on 02/20/2010 3:49:46 AM PST by Birdsbane ("Onward through the fog!" ... Oat Willie)
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To: cranked

When we invaded Iraq this time, there were reports that Russia had sold GPS jamming devices to the Iraqis. Those didn’t work so good, US military was able to lock in on the frequency and bomb the jamming equipment sites.

24 posted on 02/20/2010 5:23:31 AM PST by JerseyHighlander
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