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PAK-FA, F-35, F-22 and “Capability Surprise
Air Power Australia ^ | 2/23/2010 | Wing Commander Chris Mills AM, RAAF

Posted on 02/22/2010 6:32:13 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld

The first flight of Russia's stealthy PAK-FA is the best recent example of the problems examined in the United States Defense Science Board report on “Capability Surprise”, released in September last year. This study is an important step forward in identifying the causes of many past, current and developing strategic failures. A capability surprise arises whenever an opponent makes use of a new capability, or uses an existing capability in a different way, catching the target or victim off guard1.

Al Qaeda's use in September, 2001, of passenger laden hijacked aircraft as cruise missiles was a good example of a capability surprise.

The PAK-FA is, but at many more levels, another case of capability surprise for Western military leaders.

The DSB study divides capability surprises into two broad categories, and makes some important observations:

Capability surprise can spring from many sources: scientific breakthrough in the laboratory, rapid fielding of a known technology, or new operational use of an existing capability or technology. A review of many surprises that occurred over the past century suggests that surprises tend to fall into two major categories:

(Excerpt) Read more at ausairpower.net ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Technical
KEYWORDS: aeospace; aerospace; f22; f35; navair; opinion; pakfa; sukhoi
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1 posted on 02/22/2010 6:32:13 PM PST by ErnstStavroBlofeld
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To: Vroomfondel; SC Swamp Fox; Fred Hayek; NY Attitude; P3_Acoustic; Bean Counter; investigateworld; ...
SONOBUOY PING!

Click on pic for past Navair pings.

Post or FReepmail me if you wish to be enlisted in or discharged from the Navair Pinglist.
The only requirement for inclusion in the Navair Pinglist is an interest in Naval Aviation.
This is a medium to low volume pinglist.

2 posted on 02/22/2010 6:38:42 PM PST by magslinger (Cry MALAISE! and let slip the dogs of incompetence.)
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To: sonofstrangelove

Good read. I say we will not fund any more F-22s and fall way behind.


3 posted on 02/22/2010 6:42:21 PM PST by Kent1957
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To: sonofstrangelove

Just as russia has bribed(stolen) the plans for stealth technology from american democrats.. American technology is moving to UNmanned stealth fighters.. Thats gotta hurt..


4 posted on 02/22/2010 6:53:40 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: Kent1957

IMHO Putting us behind in capability is treasonous as one of the few responsibilities of the federal government is to protect its citizens. Dabbling in all this other crap at the cost of our safety is a major and deliberate cause...


5 posted on 02/22/2010 6:59:44 PM PST by mcshot (Little leagues, 4H and scouts require more ID then the Dems.)
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To: sonofstrangelove

Read this all you non-believers that wanted the F-22 killed because it had no “rival”. Given a 7 year lead time from design to build for the next generation of fighter, what’s next.


6 posted on 02/22/2010 7:03:28 PM PST by pfflier
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To: Kent1957
The assumption being made is the Russian plane is stealty to our systems. Since stealth aircraft are not "invisible" - but only have a smaller radar signature, it's possible to upgrade the radar on older aircraft like the F-15, -16, and -18.

Besides, their aircraft is not slated for service until 2015. We'll have the F-35 entering service around the same time with over 2000 on order.

7 posted on 02/22/2010 7:10:46 PM PST by edpc (Those Lefties just ain't right)
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To: pfflier

The F-22 wasn’t killed because it had no rival. It was discontinued because it’s a single role aircraft.


8 posted on 02/22/2010 7:15:24 PM PST by edpc (Those Lefties just ain't right)
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To: edpc

Bullcrap.

The F-22 was killed because Obama is a communist.


9 posted on 02/22/2010 7:18:03 PM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (2012: Repeal it all... All of it!)
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To: hosepipe

From pictures that I’ve seen of PAK-FA I have to question it’s stealth. The engine intakes are very prominent & it down’t look like they made any effort to ‘hide’ the front face of the engine compressor. That is not stealth by any stretch.


10 posted on 02/22/2010 7:19:37 PM PST by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: edpc
Air superiority is a single role.

We haven't been contested in that arena for so long, we have become arrogant that we can beat anything and that a few F-22s can whop the whole russky air force.

You want multi-role? Get another F-111.

11 posted on 02/22/2010 7:28:00 PM PST by pfflier
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To: edpc
Go ahead, tell us why the F-35 will be superior to an F-22.

While you do that I'll start writing the letters of condolence to the F-35 pilots' families, you can sign them.

12 posted on 02/22/2010 7:31:00 PM PST by pfflier
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Whatever. I suppose Sec Def Robert Gates and JCS General James Cartwright are commies, too, since they recommended the program wind down for legitimate reasons.


13 posted on 02/22/2010 7:31:19 PM PST by edpc (Those Lefties just ain't right)
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To: pfflier

Never mind Russia.

What about when 1.2 billion newly-industrial and incredibly rich Chinese turn what used to be America’s industrial base, into the biggest jet factory in the history of earth.

Wake up America. We don’t have much time left at this rate.

Wake up. Soon.


14 posted on 02/22/2010 7:33:00 PM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (2012: Repeal it all... All of it!)
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To: edpc

They take orders from a communist.


15 posted on 02/22/2010 7:33:35 PM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (2012: Repeal it all... All of it!)
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To: pfflier

Give me an example of an F-111 used in a role of anything other than an interdiction/strike aircraft. Its F designation carries as much weight as the F-117s.


16 posted on 02/22/2010 7:34:32 PM PST by edpc (Those Lefties just ain't right)
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To: edpc
From it's inception it was designed as a joint Air Force Navy "Tactical fighter", McNamara's TFX. It was to be an air superiority fighter.

It never served that role because it was too heavy for the navy and not nimble enough for the USAF.

The USAF bought the FB-111 as a penetrating bomber to replace the B-58.

The navy scrapped the idea altogether but then developed the F-14 from the concept. Late in it's career the F-14 was given a bombing mission.

17 posted on 02/22/2010 7:41:17 PM PST by pfflier
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To: pfflier
Go ahead, tell us why the F-35 will be superior to an F-22.

OK, for one, it will be made in superior numbers. If that's irrelevant to you, the number of Russian stealth fighters produced is irrelevant, as well.

Second, it will have multi-role capability.

Third, it will be in service with the other branches of the armed forces, operating from forward bases with STOVL and CV (carrier variant) models.

All you who short stroke it over the F-22 should remember the F-35 is produced by the same firm, Lockheed/Martin. I think they know what they're doing.

18 posted on 02/22/2010 7:43:09 PM PST by edpc (Those Lefties just ain't right)
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To: edpc

I think that the 1.2 trillion “stimulus” money could have bought SIX THOUSAND F-22’s - at full price.

Do the math.

And would have saved or created, a whole bunch more (outstanding) American high tech jobs than those “shovel ready” bank bailouts accomplished.


19 posted on 02/22/2010 7:52:39 PM PST by Cringing Negativism Network (2012: Repeal it all... All of it!)
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To: edpc
Multi-role is not air superiority.

Large numbers of multi- role fighters are called a target rich environment by the fighter jocks. Producing F-22s in larger numbers will have an exponentially better effect on our pilots kill ratios not to mention their survivability.

Multi basing modes and multi-service use make the F-35 user friendly for spare parts. That doesn't give the F-35 superior airworthiness or survivability.

FYI I built F-16s for General Dynamics before they became Lockheed Martin. Yes they know what they are doing. Building an aircraft that their customer specifies.

20 posted on 02/22/2010 7:58:17 PM PST by pfflier
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