Skip to comments.Worst may be yet to come - Schwarzenegger’s upbeat talk leaves out some very scary facts
Posted on 02/23/2010 9:28:36 AM PST by NormsRevenge
An economist using technical data to evaluate Californias battered economy might agree with Gov. Arnold Schwarzeneggers nationally televised declaration Sunday that the worst is over for the Golden State. But we doubt this assertion will sit well with most Californians and it shouldnt, for reasons both simple and complex.
The first reason is that state unemployment remains stubbornly above 12 percent the worst since the Great Depression and would be closer to 15 percent if those who had stopped looking for work were tallied.
The second reason is that almost all the legislation billed as promoting job growth that has any chance of passing the Legislature is focused on the public sector. Schwarzenegger should be on his bully pulpit denouncing Democratic legislative leaders for ignoring those not lucky enough to have taxpayer-funded jobs. Instead, by declaring the worst is over, he makes it even less likely the Legislature will do anything to help the private sector.
The third reason is the false hope raised by the governors never-ending claims that green jobs will help lift the state out of its doldrums. Schwarzenegger repeated this fallacy in his interview with ABC News Terry Moran. But consider the findings of Next 10, a liberal policy group that has promoted aggressive new environmental policies and thus has particular credibility. Its comprehensive analysis concluded green jobs would provide only a tiny fraction of total state employment.
This is likely to be true even if California proves the world leader in green innovation. Just because alternative energy breakthroughs are made here doesnt mean the major job gains they yield will be here. Last month, Santa Clara-based MiaSolé, a leader in the design of low-cost, high-efficiency solar panels, decided to build its manufacturing plant in a suburb of Atlanta. Why? The cost of doing business is much lower in Georgia than California.
Which brings us to the fourth reason to question whether the worst is over for the states economy. The competitive disadvantage that led MiaSolé to locate its manufacturing plant 2,200 miles from its California headquarters and that has helped cost California 600,000 manufacturing jobs since 2001 is about to get much worse. This is because of AB 32, the states landmark 2006 anti-global warming law that requires a partial transition to cleaner but much costlier forms of energy by 2020. As a result, according to the states own research, the cost per kilowatt hour for large utilities such as San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric is likely to go up at least 40 percent over the next decade.
No wonder two Sacramento State University professors predicted AB 32 would kill 1.1 million jobs: Californias already-big economic disadvantage is on track to be supersized.
So while we wish we were as optimistic as Schwarzenegger, the facts dont back him up. Instead, they only raise even more profound worries about the future of Californias economy.
aRnold the Gushinator .. Gush Gush Gush.. The worst is behind us..
State unemployment would be above 30 percent if people couldn't move out of the state to take jobs elsewhere.
He gave up a long time ago. He is just kissing up to the people he will be around after he leaves office. What a waste of space...
Awnuld is in an altered mind state......
By definition, if you've fallen off the unemployment rolls and aren't getting a check anymore, you are "not looking for work" and they don't count you anymore.
Its a bit orwellian, if you think about it.
Schworthlessnager is a complete failure. Ever since the unions neutered him he’s lost all common sense and reason.