Posted on 02/25/2010 7:39:18 PM PST by myknowledge
Western efforts to halt Iranian nuclear weapons work continue to fail. Russia and China block any efforts in the UN to impose severe (banking and oil) sanctions that would cripple the Iranian economy. The Iranian government has kept its restive population under control, using its secret police and paramilitary forces to shut down any public protest or serious disruption. In the past year, the government has sped up its crackdown on the media, arresting nearly a hundred journalists and shutting down over a dozen media outlets. Hundreds of outspoken government opponents have been arrested since the demonstrations last June, and few have been released. Dozens have been executed. The government is jamming more foreign electronic media (especially BBC and Voice of America), and getting better at controlling Internet access. For example, most G (Google)mail accounts suddenly became unreachable in the days leading up to the February 11 celebrations. The revolution is on hold.
Some U.S. officials believe that the Revolutionary Guard (the paramilitary force that is personally responsible to the clerics who rule the nation) is becoming independent minded and inclined to take control from the clerics. In other words, a "military dictatorship." This is unlikely, since the clerics rule as representatives of God, Non-clerics running the Revolutionary Guard don't qualify. This religious angle is important, and the current dictatorship cannot hold its base together without the religious element. However, some clerics are more involved with police and military affairs, and the "military dictatorship" the U.S. officials fear is one where more adventurous (terrorism, military activity) clerics take the top jobs in the government. The men running the Revolutionary Guard are seen as more disciplined, reliable, and less corrupt. So the senior clerics are recruiting more Revolutionary Guard officers for important government jobs (especially those involved with economic activities, like running companies.)
The clerics who run Iran believe that all domestic opposition is fomented by foreigners (particularly the United States and its allies.) This is great for reassuring nervous Iranians, but it otherwise just another example of Iranian propaganda. Meanwhile, the clerical dictatorship is getting their economic problems under control, sort of. Inflation is now under ten percent (it was nearly 30 percent a year ago), and unemployment has slipped from 12 to 11 percent in recent months (down from nearly 20 percent a year ago). But the jobs are often make-work, because the corruption (families of officials own much of the economy, and run it ineffectively) stifles economic growth or development. The government puts on media events to provide the illusion of economic progress, but most Iranians just get by. The government wants to deal with unemployment, because young men without jobs are prone to anti-government violence. But this economic malaise hurts educated Iranians the most, and these are the ones who want to migrate. The government realizes that, long term, this migration of the educated is disastrous, and says they are going to privatize much of the economy. But the corrupt officials who control so many of the state owned firms resist selling their companies to private individuals, who might become economically powerful and assist in overthrowing the dictatorship.
South Korean experts on the North Korean missile program believe that available evidence (pictures, performance) indicate clearly that the Iranians are using North Korean technology for their long range ballistic missiles. Iran and North Korea deny this, but this is another bit evidence indicating otherwise.
February 23, 2010: Iranian warplanes forced a foreign airliner, flying through Iran, from Dubai to Kyrgyzstan, to land in Iran. Secret police then boarded and took off Abdol Malek Rigi, a leader of Sunni terrorist group Jundullah (which is active in the southeast). Jundullah represents Baluchi tribes resisting religious and ethnic persecution by the Shia majority in Iran. The Baluchi tribes that support Jundullah are on both sides of the Iran/Pakistan border. The fighting has been going on for generations, but Iran insists that the United States, and other foreign powers are backing Jundullah.
February 21, 2010: Fighting with Kurd separatists in the northwest, along the Iraq border, continues. Recent battles left four Kurds dead.
February 11, 2010: Big pro-government demonstrations all over the country, to celebrate the anniversary of the 1979 revolution. Opposition attempts to disrupt all this were largely foiled by the police and paramilitary forces. The increased activity of opposition and reform groups in the last few years has got the attention of the government, and the reaction has been widespread and brutal response. That, coupled with more energetic efforts to lower unemployment and inflation rates, has reduced enthusiasm for opposition to the government.
February 10, 2010: The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on leaders of the Revolutionary Guard. These are annoying for the Iranians involved.
This will end badly. For all of us; here in America and in the ME.
Even granting that, the blame goes earlier ... to those whose domestic political needs drove them to flatly oppose and lien about Bush's efforts to deal squarely with the problem.
Also, it’s what the globalist elite’s agenda wants: A third world war in the Middle East, involving nukes.
Romans 8:28
And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them who are the called according to his purpose.
We may thank God for the incompetence of our enemies, and they are our enemies. But make no mistake - the Iranians will eventually succeed. And when they do the sort of nuclear MAD dance it will set off will be terrifyingly unstable. It is as likely that some city will be flamed out of sheer incompetence as out of malice, not that there is the least difference to the victims. And not necessarily Tel Aviv.
What is most alarming about this is the apparently widespread assessment in popular European and Asian culture that an Iranian nuke will constitute a defeat for the United States and that the danger inherent to the region will be less important than the rebuke to us. This is a suicidal naivete that we are not in a position to mend. An idiot determined to show us all by marching off a cliff is a hard fellow to stop.
Best case? Joint Session.
At least that way the ones who could have stopped it are the ones to reap the whirlwind.
The Iranians have got to be laughing their asses off at Premier Hussein and company, and breathing a sigh of relief that they don’t have a real leader like Reagan to deal with.
There is an Iranian nuclear test coming up, and the only question is what kind of test it will be. Will it be an underground explosion in the desert somewhere in Iran, or will the Mullahs roll the dice, and opt for an air burst test over Tel Aviv??
It would take Barry three days to respond in any case.
What goes around, comes around, as they say. It was the government in power now that agitated against the Shah for his use of secret police (SAVAK), and that is what THEY were marching and militating against back in the late 70s.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.