Economy 'Far too Close' to Double Dip: Roubini

CNBC ^ | 3/10/2010 | Staff

[Red in Blue PA]

Poor economic data in the US coupled with Europe's debt crisis are contributing to an increase of the risk of the US economy going through a double-dip recession, Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2007 financial crisis, wrote in a research paper.

At best, the US economy is headed for a U-shaped recovery this year, Roubini said. That has been his prediction in recent months.

The US faces challenges in the second half, especially as fiscal stimulus measures fade, and "appears far too close to the tipping point of a double-dip recession," he said.

..

Even if the euro zone does not suffer a double dip, growth in demand will be even more limited and this will hurt the United States' potential for export growth, according to Roubini's paper.

The Roubini Global Economics benchmark scenario puts the risk of a double dip at 20 percent, while a slow, protracted, U-shaped recovery is given the highest probability of 60 percent.

[misterrob]

I can tell you this quarter isn’t all that.......

[scooby321]

he is spot on

[cranked]

Christine Romer, Larry Summers, Austan Goolsbee, among others of Jack Squat Barry’s top economists would beg to differ..... =.=

[LibLieSlayer]

DEPRESSION... the rest is propaganda.

LLS

[central_va]

How can there be a double dip when we haven’t recovered from the first dip? We should call it “From recession to Depression”.

[qwertypie]

Anybody expecting a robust recovery cycle is delusional. The US is not the US of the past. We are Europe and Japan. This is what malaise looks like. The business cycle still has an overlay effect, but what it overlays is a downward trend now.

[RayChuang88]

That's why to avoid that double dip, we need to bring back something like US$15 TRILLION in American-owned assets now currently outside the US financial system for income tax avoidance purposes by participating in the underground economy or sent out using legal (mostly!) tax loopholes to offshore financial centers beyond US borders.

Hence my support for FairTax. FairTax ends all incentives to keep money out of the US financial system (since there's no more taxes on earning money!), and that will ignite a new economic boom that will make the 1980's boom seem like a minor event as not only will we get back most of that US$15 TRILLION (essentially the world's biggest "private bailout"), but may attract another US$10 TRILLION in investments from foreigners all eager to take advantage of the world's biggest legal income tax haven. It would even revive our shipping industry almost overnight as the USA becomes the next "flag of convenience" for cargo and passenger ships.

[Uncle Chip]

You guys who promote this fair tax don’t understand tax and spend politicians. They will simply add the fair tax to every other tax along with a value added tax and taxes on anything that moves. Your fair tax fantasy would turn quickly into your and our greatest nightmare.

[indthkr]

econ bump for later.......

[RayChuang88]

I understand your concerns, but one of the important parts about passing FairTax is repealing the 16th Amendment itself. With the 16th Amendment repealed, we will have no more income taxes.