Skip to comments.Why Palin shouldn't run in 2012 ** John Ziegler (The math behind a Palin Victory!)
Posted on 03/11/2010 12:56:52 PM PST by Joy Angela
Last week I made a rare appearance on MSNBC (a network on which I have had numerous YouTube moments since the 2008 election, when they became the Obama Network) and shared some statements which apparently shocked some of my fellow conservatives.
Since even before the release of my documentary about the media coverage of Obamas election, I have been described by many commentators (both as a compliment and as a condemnation) as Sarah Palins most ardent defender against the never-ending stream of unfair media attacks against her. What seemed to surprise people on both ends of the political spectrum was my assertion on Morning Joe that, based on her current path, and barring a literal act of God, there is absolutely no chance that Palin can beat Obama in 2012.
Since the television appearance was barely five minutes long and my view of this important subject is far more nuanced than can possibly be articulated in the microwave world of cable TV news (or even a later radio interview I did with host Joe Scarborough about this subject), I wish to fully explain my thinking so that any confusion about where I stand may be as limited as possible.
First, the reason I went on MSNBC is that Joe Scarborough and I have had a running (and sometimes rather pointed) e-mail exchange about his coverage of Sarah Palin which was escalated when his show did a seemingly endless segment on how intellectually deficient she supposedly is. Joe has offered me an open invitation to debate that and other issues related to Palin when I am next in New York where his show is broadcast. Since Palin was on the Tonight Show last week and because I live in Burbank, we decided the occasion might make for a good opportunity to do a quick preview of coming attractions. I also made it clear to him that there was something about Palin that I have wanted to get off my chest for several weeks. This was the issue of what her intent and potential is for the 2012 presidential race.
When I first met Palin at her home in early 2009, after our interview for my documentary we had a rather lengthy conversation, which of course eventually turned to her political future. Unsolicited, I offered my very strong opinion that, thanks to the medias worship of Obama and their unfair destruction of her, that I thought it would be foolhardy for her to even consider running against him in 2012. My advice at the time was for her to run for Senate in 2014 and run in 2016 for President when presumably there will be no incumbent running and when the narrative about her (thanks to the medias love of a good comeback) would likely be vastly more positive than in 2012. Palin was clearly listening intently but said almost nothing in response. Those who witnessed the conversation said she did not seem to like what she was hearing.
However, after the remarkable success of her book and the incredible decline in Obamas political popularity, I started to think that, with any luck, Palin could win the Republican nomination and that she would at least have a shot against The One, assuming the economy didnt significantly improve. But now I am thoroughly convinced that while Obama is somewhat vulnerable (if the economy improves, he wins big, if it stays the same, he wins very small, if it gets worse, he loses big), Sarah Palin has less of a chance to beat him than just about anyone else who is currently considered in contention.
The reasons I have come to this painful conclusion are numerous.
Great Article, very clear and thought out!! All four pages are worth reading! See link for the entire article.
Excuse me, but you want me to read 4 pages of something written by someone I’ve never heard of to explain why I should be a Palin-hater too?
I don’t think so.
Sarah Palin ping... :-)
For some reason Ziegler thinks that Obama can count to 4 years of failure as “Presidential Experience”. I suppose you could call it that but Carter was trying to claim the same thing. The American public does not want a failure who is actively trying to destroy the country in office. He also accepts the idea that Palin is a “quitter” in the eyes of the public. Frankly, she can point to a strong record of success as governor and it’s only the elitists who can’t understand that being out of office is not the same thing as being able to push an agenda.
No one should throw their hat in the ring just yet. It would be suicide.
Lets get through the November General Election and see what there is to work with after that.
I’m coming to the conclusion that Free Republic is probably the only place that Palin could win the nomination. It just doesn’t look good anywhere else.
I thought Ziegler was a palin sycophant
I dont think so.
I'm with you, R2. Someone needs to give me the gist of what his argument is. I'm not going to spend that much time so a stranger can explain his nuances to me.
That’s why I like the article: Ziegler clarifies his position. He’s pro-Palin, but also aware of the media an political battle she’ll have to face in 2012!
The article is a quick-read.
Ziegler thinks fast and writes with intensity!
Worth a read! :)
Time to throw Ziegler under the bus. He served his purpose, but now he’s rather inconvenient to the cause.
What changed his tune? It wasn’t long ago he was deluding himself that she was Ronald Reagan arisen form the dead.
Sarah has a big surprise for Ziegler and a lot of folks here: she can beat Obama in 2012. All of the analysis will mean nothing when she starts getting on the stump and kicking ass at the GOP debates. PS it’s still only early 2010, Ziegler is ridiculous. He seems unstable and petty to boot. The whole thing how he was kicked off the radio station after a couple months really made me winder about the guy and also his clownish behavior at CPAC last year or whenever it was.
Palin 2012 (I guess I’m a Palin “worshipper” now).
Please name one pubbie would WOULDN'T face a media battle in 2012.
All I know is she was the best governor we ever had up here, and it’s all going down hill since she’s gone. Nobody to keep all our politicians on the straight & narrow nowadays. I guess I’d rather have a leader we can trust, doesn’t lie to everybody, and the good sense to do the right thing time and time again. Hope she comes back, they’ll give her the gov spot back again nx election.
Yes, they will!
I'm sure they're intelligent enough to read PAST the headline! :)
Which is idiocy, quite frankly. The Tea Party movement has higher approval ratings than either political party. And any pubbie who bases their decisions on what the media thinks of them won't have a chance in hell of winning.
Maybe we don’t need Palin to beat Obama!
We NEED Palin to beat HILLARY!!!
2016... is D-Day!!!
She needs to keep IT going till then,
and Ziegler’s advice that she run for Congress/Senate
Your Mission is not yet completed!!
I see that for whatever reason Ziegler is your favorite subject to discuss—and praise here on FR.
Posters at Free Republic certainly have the brain-power to read a few pages!!
We can Take It, Baby!! :)
Hes pro-Palin, but ....
Sigh. I get so tired of reading this.
It seems to pop up on all the Palin bashing threads lately.
Because he has that Palin/Reagan Spunk!!
We don’t see that much in these days of marshmellow politics!
Let me get this straight - Palin is the ultimate political outsider, so she should run for the Senate, the ultimate insider's club, to gain cred.
Yeah, that makes a boatload of sense.
Uh, no, he doesn't, if this column is any indication, he thinks entirely within the box.
I think Sarah should go the Reagan route and I believe she will: Run in 2012 and if by chance she doesn’t win, run again in 2016 and seal the deal. A la ‘76/’80. If she stands on principles and loses in 2012 she wins a lot of hearts.
Also, if she comes close to winning the nomination like Reagan did in 1976 she gains the status of “former presidential candidate” which carries weight (unless you’re a loser like Bruno’s boyfriend Ron Paul or a nobody joke like Duncan Hunter).
Normally I agree with Ziegler, but in this instance, I think he's missing a point.
Palin is not a Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama who's life long dream is to be President. If we are to take her at her word, she's not in politics for her own gain. Believing her and with all the money she is and could be making, I think any decision on her part will be dictated by what the landscape looks like by next year.
At this point, what potential Conservative candidate appears poised to make a run in a Country which appears to be looking for a Conservative? So far....none.
If that remains the case, I'd bet Palin runs.
You need to get out more.
Hunter/DeMint/Pence. I think they may all be running.
I agree with your other points but I believe Palin has some real work to deal with this label because I do believe, correctly or not, that many Americans view her leaving office as quitting.
I understand why she left, but most Americans don't follow the news rather less political news.
Hes pro-Palin, but ....
Sigh. I get so tired of reading this.
It seems to pop up on all the Palin bashing threads lately.
BINGO we have a winner!!!
If there is a strong Conservative candidate, Palin probably wouldn’t run.
She appears to be a team player in the Conservative cause.
Sarah can run because Obama is a one termer.
He can’t run for another term because of the new birth certificate requirements passed by numerous state legislatures.
Sure with ‘Pro’ people like Ziegler there no way she could win. Tell you what lets run Mitt and watch the Republican party get their asses handed to them. How is that for a plan?
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
We are about to see a sovereign debt, banking and real estate crisis the likes of which the world has never seen. Trillions of "dollars" will disappear into a black hole after a supernova of inflation like we've never seen. Anyone who thinks "health care" or "she's a quitter" is going to be on any sane person's political radar in November 2012 is out of their freakin' minds.
If we make it through next Christmas without U1 unemployment being below 15%, I will be shocked.
Sarah Palin will come along at just the right time in 2012, IMHO.
And for the anti-Palin agitators: there's one ONE I worship, and it's ain't Palin, but she knows Him too.
that’s an intersting perspective. i like it.
Imagine the POWER with Sarah Palin in Washington DC in the House/Senate!!
Didn’t Hillary start her White House run there?
The Media wouldn’t know what to do with her,
that sexy figure, those knee-high boots and a BRAIN
to knock ‘em silly!!!
Hillary’s people are in a FRANTIC FRENZY hoping
Palin doesn’t go the Washington DC route!!
At this point the GOP could Run Barney the Dinosaur and win, and they know it.
Basically his idea is she should enter the Senate in 2015, and then immediately start running for the 2016 Presidential election.
Someöne else can explain why this is a good idea.
Well, now I know more about Ziegler than I did before, since this is the first time I’ve heard of him. I had a look at this and some of his other stuff at the web site. A real Palin supporter who has been disillusioned? I doubt it. I didn’t see anything in his article or his record that gives any weight to his views. All it tells me, yet again, is that a lot of people are desperate to derail Palin.
News for all of you; Sarah isn’t running—yet. We’re still in the House/Senate election cycle, and that’s the current priority.
I tend to agree Palin can’t win, but there’s one thing I question. He says Palin has negatives because of the media’s treatment of her and she won’t be able to change that...however, Obama once had high ratings, he’s now unpopular, and this is *despite* the media fawning over him...so, based on that, I don’t agree Palin can’t improve her popularity among the Great Unwashed.
I don’t think anyone has yet mentioned the prospect I consider most likely. First, if the economy is improving and the GOP has control of one or both houses of Congress, Obama’s personal popularity will rebound and the public, entirely comfortable with divided government, will reelect him with substantial margins. Palin will realize this and will not run in 2012.
If the economy is in shambles still in 2011-12, Obama will be easily beatable by a GOP candidate with solid experience in a governorship. American by then will be sick to death of our glib-talking empty suit president, and will go with competance and experience. I don’t know who that person will be, but I don’t think any of the major names currently bandied about fit: Palin, Romney, Huckabee, etc. Perhaps Barbour, Daniels, or Pawlenty, or some other person who is not even on the radar at this time. Yes, those who love Palin (me included) will be disappointed, but not too much: she will again be the vice-presidential candidate, and will be well positioned in 2016 or 2020 to head the ticket, and even in 2020 will still be young enough to lead the country.
If the economy is only so-so, things are more difficult to predict, but even then I would support Palin. I’m not a great fan of letting the MSM and the hollywood left pick our candidates, or destroy those they feel most threatened by. Remember, they also vigorously attempted to portray Reagan as the amiable dunce.
Of course, 2012 is still a long way off, and any number of things could happen to totally change all these calculations. A major terrorist attack, for example, could thrust to the forefront a candidate with strong military cred (Petraeus, for example). The same could occur if by 2012 we are in a shooting war with Iran.
Anyway, I’m not so quick to write Palin off. American may yet have a President Palin in its future.
“Someone needs to give me the gist of what his argument is.”
Sure. Here goes: The gist is that the Leftist mainstream media has already formed a negative image of Palin in the minds of the middle Americans, the “undecideds” who swing the election one way or the other.
Sarah would need more than two year to get to be known to these voters. There isn’t enough money or time to convince them she is experienced and intelligent by 2012.
Thats all he’s saying. He’s a supporter of Governor Palin - a fan, really. I can tell that. He wants her to be President and is afraid that the obstacles that have been thrown in her way will stop her. Then she becomes known as a “loser”, for the next Presidential election in 2016. That’s the one he wants her to wait for.
My own take on this is that he’s being very fair and logical (he knows politics), but that nobody can predict what is going to happen tomorrow, let alone two or three years from now, and 2016 is certainly far enough away for the boy wonder in the White House to completely destroy America. We don’t have that much time.
I’m not convinced that Palin is ready.
I don’t see 2.5 years as a governor to be the draw some other people do. Palin may have the right instincts, but the right instincts don’t cut it without the proper experience.
Carter, Clinton, and Obama made it into the Oval Office mainly because folks didn’t know enough about these no-names until the election year. None of them were qualified to be president, and Carter and Clinton had been two term governors. Obama had even less executive experience than Palin.
What I’m trying to say, is that I don’t really care for inexperience on our own side any more than I care for it on the other side. Point to some success over a period of time, or don’t bother me.
I have stated this, because on point, I agree with Ziegler that she isn’t ready for prime time. That still doesn’t mean that I agree that Obama could beat her. By 2012, Obama is going to make Bush’s popularity numbers look good. This guy is sinking in the polls, and I don’t see a scenario where he recovers, short of saying I’m sorry and resigning. So unlike Ziegler, I think she beats Obama.
McCain carried about as much baggage as a guy could carry into 2008. Anyone with a quarter of a clue on the right, knew McCain was destined to get his ass handed to him. The only reason he didn’t, was Palin. I still say without her, he had 30% of the total vote. Even at that, McCain did not get swamped at the polls. He didn’t show well, but that’s not a McGovern, Goldwater, or Mondale loss.
Palin would not have the negative baggage McCain did. She would have the media trashing her. And some on the left would trash her. Still others would get behind her because she was the first woman candidate. The Right would get behind her. I don’t think independents who have seen Obama practically destroy this nation would see a level headed Conservative on the right as a huge threat. I don’t buy that at all.
Palin would pull in the right. She would pull in at least half the Independents, and she’d actually pull in some Democrat women. I must say I am still repulsed by the idea of a person becoming president because of their gender just as much as I was this jackass just because he was 1/2 black. And the margin Palin would win by would probably be close to the sympathetic gender vote. At least that’s how I see it.
Ziegler is wrong about whether she would win or not. I don’t believe he is wrong about her qualifications.
Folks, if we can’t find someone with decent experience that espouses the same Conservative ideals as Palin claims, then our nation is in a hurt locker of gigantic proportions.
What Ziegler also fails to address, is who do we run if not Palin? Giuliani? Romney? Huckabee? McCain again? That right there is where his logic falls to pieces. There isn’t anyone else widely known.
If Palin is the candidate, I’ll vote for her. I’m not going to champion someone at this point who is willing to check their Conservative credentials at the door and back a man like John McCain. That put her in no man’s land for me.