Skip to comments.Why Palin shouldn't run in 2012 ** John Ziegler (The math behind a Palin Victory!)
Posted on 03/11/2010 12:56:52 PM PST by Joy Angela
Last week I made a rare appearance on MSNBC (a network on which I have had numerous YouTube moments since the 2008 election, when they became the Obama Network) and shared some statements which apparently shocked some of my fellow conservatives.
Since even before the release of my documentary about the media coverage of Obamas election, I have been described by many commentators (both as a compliment and as a condemnation) as Sarah Palins most ardent defender against the never-ending stream of unfair media attacks against her. What seemed to surprise people on both ends of the political spectrum was my assertion on Morning Joe that, based on her current path, and barring a literal act of God, there is absolutely no chance that Palin can beat Obama in 2012.
Since the television appearance was barely five minutes long and my view of this important subject is far more nuanced than can possibly be articulated in the microwave world of cable TV news (or even a later radio interview I did with host Joe Scarborough about this subject), I wish to fully explain my thinking so that any confusion about where I stand may be as limited as possible.
First, the reason I went on MSNBC is that Joe Scarborough and I have had a running (and sometimes rather pointed) e-mail exchange about his coverage of Sarah Palin which was escalated when his show did a seemingly endless segment on how intellectually deficient she supposedly is. Joe has offered me an open invitation to debate that and other issues related to Palin when I am next in New York where his show is broadcast. Since Palin was on the Tonight Show last week and because I live in Burbank, we decided the occasion might make for a good opportunity to do a quick preview of coming attractions. I also made it clear to him that there was something about Palin that I have wanted to get off my chest for several weeks. This was the issue of what her intent and potential is for the 2012 presidential race.
When I first met Palin at her home in early 2009, after our interview for my documentary we had a rather lengthy conversation, which of course eventually turned to her political future. Unsolicited, I offered my very strong opinion that, thanks to the medias worship of Obama and their unfair destruction of her, that I thought it would be foolhardy for her to even consider running against him in 2012. My advice at the time was for her to run for Senate in 2014 and run in 2016 for President when presumably there will be no incumbent running and when the narrative about her (thanks to the medias love of a good comeback) would likely be vastly more positive than in 2012. Palin was clearly listening intently but said almost nothing in response. Those who witnessed the conversation said she did not seem to like what she was hearing.
However, after the remarkable success of her book and the incredible decline in Obamas political popularity, I started to think that, with any luck, Palin could win the Republican nomination and that she would at least have a shot against The One, assuming the economy didnt significantly improve. But now I am thoroughly convinced that while Obama is somewhat vulnerable (if the economy improves, he wins big, if it stays the same, he wins very small, if it gets worse, he loses big), Sarah Palin has less of a chance to beat him than just about anyone else who is currently considered in contention.
The reasons I have come to this painful conclusion are numerous.
Great Article, very clear and thought out!! All four pages are worth reading! See link for the entire article.
Excuse me, but you want me to read 4 pages of something written by someone I’ve never heard of to explain why I should be a Palin-hater too?
I don’t think so.
Sarah Palin ping... :-)
For some reason Ziegler thinks that Obama can count to 4 years of failure as “Presidential Experience”. I suppose you could call it that but Carter was trying to claim the same thing. The American public does not want a failure who is actively trying to destroy the country in office. He also accepts the idea that Palin is a “quitter” in the eyes of the public. Frankly, she can point to a strong record of success as governor and it’s only the elitists who can’t understand that being out of office is not the same thing as being able to push an agenda.
No one should throw their hat in the ring just yet. It would be suicide.
Lets get through the November General Election and see what there is to work with after that.
I’m coming to the conclusion that Free Republic is probably the only place that Palin could win the nomination. It just doesn’t look good anywhere else.
I thought Ziegler was a palin sycophant
I dont think so.
I'm with you, R2. Someone needs to give me the gist of what his argument is. I'm not going to spend that much time so a stranger can explain his nuances to me.
That’s why I like the article: Ziegler clarifies his position. He’s pro-Palin, but also aware of the media an political battle she’ll have to face in 2012!
The article is a quick-read.
Ziegler thinks fast and writes with intensity!
Worth a read! :)
Time to throw Ziegler under the bus. He served his purpose, but now he’s rather inconvenient to the cause.
What changed his tune? It wasn’t long ago he was deluding himself that she was Ronald Reagan arisen form the dead.
Sarah has a big surprise for Ziegler and a lot of folks here: she can beat Obama in 2012. All of the analysis will mean nothing when she starts getting on the stump and kicking ass at the GOP debates. PS it’s still only early 2010, Ziegler is ridiculous. He seems unstable and petty to boot. The whole thing how he was kicked off the radio station after a couple months really made me winder about the guy and also his clownish behavior at CPAC last year or whenever it was.
Palin 2012 (I guess I’m a Palin “worshipper” now).
Please name one pubbie would WOULDN'T face a media battle in 2012.
All I know is she was the best governor we ever had up here, and it’s all going down hill since she’s gone. Nobody to keep all our politicians on the straight & narrow nowadays. I guess I’d rather have a leader we can trust, doesn’t lie to everybody, and the good sense to do the right thing time and time again. Hope she comes back, they’ll give her the gov spot back again nx election.
Yes, they will!
I'm sure they're intelligent enough to read PAST the headline! :)
Which is idiocy, quite frankly. The Tea Party movement has higher approval ratings than either political party. And any pubbie who bases their decisions on what the media thinks of them won't have a chance in hell of winning.
Maybe we don’t need Palin to beat Obama!
We NEED Palin to beat HILLARY!!!
2016... is D-Day!!!
She needs to keep IT going till then,
and Ziegler’s advice that she run for Congress/Senate
Your Mission is not yet completed!!