Raw totals on the flip:
178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. Hes in the Stupak bloc.
20 Democrats who voted No in November:
Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Dennis Kucinich, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler.
5 Democrats who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly.
17 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:
6 lean Yes:
Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Four), Scott Murphy, Betsy Markey
Glenn Nye, John Tanner, Suzanne Kosmas, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson, Harry Teague.
4 less possible:
Travis Childers, John Barrow, Allen Boyd, Rick Boucher.
20 potential Yes-No flip votes:
5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
Steve Driehaus, Brad Ellsworth, Marcy Kaptur, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar.
15 other wary Democrats:
Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski (lean yes), Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens, Baron Hill, Solomon Ortiz, Gabrielle Giffords, Earl Pomeroy, Tim Bishop.
Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 17 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 37.
Glenn Nye, you are so effing gone in November if you vote for this.
If Alan Boyd votes yes he can kiss his seat goodbye. North Florida is RAT by registration numbers, but conservative.
Would it be enough if 25 out of those uncommitted 37 just voted "present"? Perhaps they could be convinced to emulate their fearless leader Zero.
Nice work...25 out of 37 tells me that this is a done deal knowing the way the Dems operate. It’s over.
I think 204 No, 190 Yes, 37 Undecided is more likely. That's pretty close to your estimate.
Conversely - we need 13 of the uncommitted 37.
But what happens if they SLAUGHTER?
How will we respond?
What should we do?
We must do SOMETHING about that horrible specter.
And this vote is on the unaltered Senate bill, right? So directly to The Pretender’s desk.