Posted on 03/18/2010 7:11:08 AM PDT by GOPGuide
Longtime incumbent John McCain now leads conservative challenger J.D. Hayworth by just seven points in Arizona’s hotly contested Republican Senate Primary race.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Arizona GOP Primary voters shows McCain ahead 48% to 41%. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.
Following the announcement that Sarah Palin would campaign for his reelection, McCain opened up a 53% to 31% lead over Hayworth in January. The two men were in a near tie in November.
But now Hayworth, a former congressman turned popular local talk radio host, is a formal candidate, and anti-immigration activist Chris Simcox has quit the race and endorsed him. For McCain, the new numbers also show him dropping again below 50%, and incumbents who poll less than 50% at this stage of a campaign are considered potentially vulnerable.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Hayworth leads by seven points among male primary voters but trails by 23 among women. He edges McCain by five points among party conservatives, but the incumbent holds substantial margins among Republicans who identify themselves as moderates or liberals.
Hayworth has been attacking McCain as not conservative enough, but the senator, who just two years ago was the Republican presidential nominee, has been countering with a number of heavyweight endorsements from the right. Palin will attend a McCain rally in Tucson later this month.
Polling last fall found that 61% of Arizona Republicans felt McCain was out of touch with the party base.
Arizona Republicans will choose their Senate nominee in an August 24 primary, and for now that’s the major battle of this Senate cycle since no major Democrat has announced yet as a candidate.
Twenty-nine percent (29%) of GOP Primary voters have a very favorable opinion of McCain, who has represented Arizona in the Senate since 1987. Fifteen percent (15%) view him very unfavorably.
Hayworth is seen very favorably by 25% and very unfavorably by 15%.
While both candidates are well-known among likely primary voters, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers at this point in a campaign.
Just 11% of Republicans in the state approve of the job President Obama is doing, while 88% disapprove.
Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the performance of the state’s GOP governor, Jan Brewer, who is in a tough reelection battle this year. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove. These findings include six percent (6%) who strongly approve of how she’s doing her job and 17% who strongly disapprove.
In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.
In Arizona during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed McCain winning the state by a 51% to 45% margin. McCain defeated Obama 54% to 45%. In the 2006 Arizona governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Janet Napolitano defeating Len Munsil 58% to 37%. Napolitano won 63% to 35%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Jon Kyl leading Jim Pederson by nine, 51% to 42%. Kyl won by nine, 53% to 44%.
See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.
:o(
I guess I need to send JD another little sumpthin sumpthin...
Striking distance!
Put that in your pipe and smoke it, Aunt Sarah!! ;-)
Then again they elected Napolitano?
WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU PEOPLE!
I actually thought it was closer than this. Would LOVE to see an upset here!!!
Wow if this trend continues, McCain will be calling for internment camps for illegals by the primary.
I’m writing her a letter and demanding she repay me for buying her book if she uses the income to support McNasty.
Tancredo endorsed Romney
DeMint endorsed Romney
Pawlenty endorsed McCain
Thompson endorsed McCain
Newt endorsed Scozzafava
Santorum endorsed Specter
Rubio endorsed Huckabee
Santorum endorsed Romney
Scott Brown endorsed Rommey
Ann Coulter endorsed Romney
Mark Levin endorsed Romney
Dick Cheney endorsed McCain
Thune endorsed McCain
Jindahl endorsed McCain
Huckabee endorsed McCain
Bachmann endorsed McCain/Palin
Ron Paul endorsed Chuck Baldwin
That’s a great idea. What a disappointment this is.
So Sarah is so good that she could turn the tide back into McVain favor, huh? Please, While I don’t like the support of mcVain, I understand why and all of this AstroTurfing by “it’s an excuse” “RINO” is pure silly.
Same here.
Palin is campaigning for Juan because she is classy and owes it to him. I hope she realizes that, should she run for the White House, McCain will NOT campaign for her!!!
For all the attacking by McLame portraying JD as some right-wing nut, if McLame is in trouble if he is below 50% and only 7 % ahead of JD.
GO JD!!!
How many of them endorsed McCain during the last election and how many of them support him as of now?
We have the big amnesty for illegals march coming up in Washington Sunday, and the big amnesty pushers are trying to get a bill moving in Congress. These factors will probably serve to remind people of Juan’s past role of Senator Amnesty from Arizona, and focus more attention on this race.
Looks like your daddy Juan McAmnesty will be returning to your beer ranch soon!
LOL!!!
Nah, that's just Mesa and Sun City.
But good line anyway...
Explain why that is relevant. An endorsement is an endorsement.
Just wait...the fix is in. What will the Republican leadership do to screw this up for JD?
Don’t the GOP voters in Arizona have minds of their own? Is Palin that powerful that she can make people vote for a candidate aginst their will? The big question is whether the Hayworth supporters will throw their votes to McCain if he wins the primary or sit out and let a Democrat take the seat.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.