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They Still Donít Have the Votes
NRO ^ | 3/20/2010 | Jeffrey Anderson

Posted on 03/20/2010 1:02:50 PM PDT by Uncledave

They Still Don’t Have the Votes [Jeffrey H. Anderson]

The most likely explanation for the breakdown of talks between Rep. Bart Stupak and Speaker Nancy Pelosi is not that Pelosi decided she didn’t need Stupak and his crew in order to have enough votes to pass Obamacare. Rather, it is that Stupak — who is increasingly emerging as this drama’s Jefferson Smith (Jimmy Stewart’s heroic character in Mr. Smith Goes to Washington) — held firm in insisting on language that would truly prevent taxpayer-funded abortions, and in insisting that such language be passed by the Senate before the bill could become law.

In turn, Pelosi either decided that by accepting the language, she would lose more votes in the House than she would gain, or else knew that Democratic senators, with their strong preference for taxpayer-funded abortion, would never go along with this concession to the views of the vast majority of Americans.

In any event, by all accounts, Pelosi is now trying to pass the bill without the pro-life Democratic vote — or at least without Stupak. As of now, it doesn’t appear that she has the votes. I currently count 208 leaning in favor of Obamacare and 214 leaning against, with 9 undecided. Here they are — with the margin by which the presidential vote was won (by one party or the other) in their districts over the last three elections:

• Marion Berry (D., Ark.) (GOP +8) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Henry Cuellar (D., Tex.) (Dem +1) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Bill Foster (D., Ill.) (GOP +4)

• Jim Matheson (D., Utah) (GOP +30) — with nearly two-thirds of his constituents having supported GOP presidential candidates over the last three elections, a “yes” vote on Stupak, and an earlier “no” vote on Obamacare, a “yes” vote would mean that, for the rest of his days, he would be remembered as the guy who sold his vote for the price of Obama’s having just nominated his brother to a federal judgeship

• Michael Michaud (D., Me.) (Dem +7) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Solomon Ortiz (D., Tex.) (GOP +1) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Earl Pomeroy (D., N.D.) (GOP +21) — pro-Stupak Amendment — yes, that’s GOP +21

• Nick Rahall (D., W.V.) (GOP +6) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Zach Space (D., Ohio) (GOP +12) — pro-Stupak Amendment

Also, here is a partial list of some particularly key members who are leaning “no”:

• Christopher Carney (D., Pa.) (GOP +15) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Dan Lipinski (D., Ill.) (Dem +22) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Kathleen Dahlkemper (D., Pa.) (GOP +3) — pro-Stupak Amendment

• Glenn Nye (D., Va.) (GOP +9) — “no” last time


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 111th; bhohealthcare; heathcare; nro; obamacare
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1 posted on 03/20/2010 1:02:50 PM PDT by Uncledave
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To: Uncledave

So why is the MSM (including Fox) acting as though it’s in the bag?


2 posted on 03/20/2010 1:04:33 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: CaptainK

So you and I and others will give up and shut up.


3 posted on 03/20/2010 1:06:17 PM PDT by lastchance (Hug your babies.)
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To: CaptainK

..they are behind the curve...lost in the dust....


4 posted on 03/20/2010 1:06:18 PM PDT by spokeshave (They'll get my false teeth when they pry them from my sister's cold, dead mouth)
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To: CaptainK
FOX is going on how they voted months ago, before the pressure was put on these people

THEY STILL DON'T HAVE THE VOTES!!

5 posted on 03/20/2010 1:06:39 PM PDT by what's up
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To: CaptainK

turn off the TV


6 posted on 03/20/2010 1:07:24 PM PDT by Uncledave
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To: CaptainK

What is “O” doing on TV? WHY do we have to listen to this drivel?

This must be why they closed the building... Heard earlier that Cavuto mentioned “something was going down at 17:00”


7 posted on 03/20/2010 1:08:41 PM PDT by RebelTXRose
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To: Uncledave

Don’t count on Berry.


8 posted on 03/20/2010 1:08:53 PM PDT by Arkinsaw
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To: CaptainK

Because the “process” is starting to smell like Gore has already won Florida, who cares what happens in the Panhandle where they’re still voting?


9 posted on 03/20/2010 1:09:07 PM PDT by secret garden (Why procrastinate when you can perendinate?)
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To: CaptainK

I got a gut feeling watching the pep rally they are having as we speak that they may not have the votes. It’s like they decided to have the honors ceremony now because they won’t be able to tomorrow. We must pray.


10 posted on 03/20/2010 1:09:15 PM PDT by pnut22
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To: Uncledave

Zach Space (D., Ohio) (GOP +12) — pro-Stupak Amendment
I had read yesterday here that he was voting NO, has that been confirmed


11 posted on 03/20/2010 1:09:46 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Uncledave
turn off the TV

Amen! Excellent advise.

12 posted on 03/20/2010 1:09:59 PM PDT by jazusamo (But there really is no free lunch, except in the world of political rhetoric,.: Thomas Sowell)
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To: pnut22

We must act.


13 posted on 03/20/2010 1:10:00 PM PDT by Perdogg ("Is that a bomb in your pants, or are you excited to come to America?")
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To: Uncledave

Obama can not shut up.


14 posted on 03/20/2010 1:10:17 PM PDT by Ladycalif ("If you don't have a sword, sell your cloak and buy one." Jesus)
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To: Uncledave

"Let us hide and let (Gov.) Palin and the Tea Party
fight alone for the American people
as we (RINOs) scheme to screw them all mercilessly once again."

15 posted on 03/20/2010 1:10:19 PM PDT by Diogenesis ("Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God." --Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Uncledave

The irony here is that we’re all expecting Democrats to do something remotely conservative when conservatives are about as rare as ivory billed woodpeckers in the Democratic party. We’re pretty sure they exist, but we sure don’t see them much.

Unfortunately, the leftist moonbats within the Democratic party no longer need their more conservative counterparts. And that’s bad news. Particularly for conservatives. You see, the more conservative side of the Democratic party used to be able to keep the moonbats in check. Not any more.

Let me suggest something really radical here: conservatives should join the Democratic party and challenge the leftist moonbats in the primaries. Bring the fight to where the moonbats are.

Remember that most seats in legislatures and the House of Representatives change hands as the result of primary elections not general elections; gerrymandering has done a pretty job of making most seats “safe” for one party or the other.

Bela Pelosi is never going to lose her seat to a Republican. It just ain’t gonna happen. And if a Republican runs against her, she simply ignores the challenge, secure in the knowldege that in her district, there is little chance that a Republican will win.

The same cannot be said of a Democratic challenger. She would be forced to run something of an election challenge, depending on how formidable the challenge was. And here is the key point: it’s not so important that the conservative “Democrat” challenger win, it’s important that they run a just credible enough challenge to force her to spend significant resources to fight the challenge.

The Libertarians do a great job of running a reasonably credible campaign on a shoestring. And that’s all you really need to do: spend a little and make Nancy (or the leftist nutjob of choice) and their supporters spend lots more of *their* money. Just for example purposes, the cost of running a credible campaign for the House of Delegates here in VA is about $100K. It goes up exponentially for Congress. Make the moonbats spend the money to keep their “safe” seats.


16 posted on 03/20/2010 1:10:59 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Lord Jesus Christ, Son of God, have mercy on me, a sinner!)
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To: RebelTXRose

What do you think it is? Is he going to let all the fishermen know he is going to make it illegal?


17 posted on 03/20/2010 1:11:18 PM PDT by proudtobeanamerican1 (Prayers Up! It's our last defense!)
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To: Perdogg

Great tag line.


18 posted on 03/20/2010 1:11:31 PM PDT by pnut22
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To: pnut22

thanks!


19 posted on 03/20/2010 1:12:03 PM PDT by Perdogg ("Is that a bomb in your pants, or are you excited to come to America?")
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To: CaptainK

Although they are far better than the alternative, I think FOX is just a lighter version of “Repeaters” rather than reporters, selling rumors and speculation.

I don’t know how many times I’ve heard Shep Smith refer to this as “Insurance Reform”, thus buying the Dem party line talking point


20 posted on 03/20/2010 1:12:15 PM PDT by DanielRedfoot (What a fool believes, No wise man has the power to reason away)
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To: Ladycalif

He’s as tedious as he is arrogant.


21 posted on 03/20/2010 1:12:30 PM PDT by fullchroma (Obama: GET OUT OF MY DOCTOR'S OFFICE!)
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To: pnut22

You may be right. They have to get in front of the people and ‘splain why this Healthcare Bill was so wonderful... and how they are all so wonderful for “fighting” for us. Praising of all the crooks... rah...rah...rah!


22 posted on 03/20/2010 1:12:44 PM PDT by antceecee (Bless us Father.. have mercy on us and protect us from evil.)
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To: CaptainK

“So why is the MSM (including Fox) acting as though it’s in the bag?”

It’s disinformation. Can’t have the proles gettin all uppity now. As to the “why?”: just follow the money.


23 posted on 03/20/2010 1:13:02 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Lord Jesus Christ, Son of God, have mercy on me, a sinner!)
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To: Uncledave

> “turn off the TV” <

I did as soon as that Maxist Kenyan’s face appeared on Capitol Hill.


24 posted on 03/20/2010 1:13:03 PM PDT by Joe Marine 76 (Semper Fi!)
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To: Uncledave

We haven’t lost yet, but we haven’t won either. Everyone stay alert and involved. Please.


25 posted on 03/20/2010 1:13:16 PM PDT by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: DanielRedfoot

When Kusinich folded Sheppy described it as “good news.”


26 posted on 03/20/2010 1:13:27 PM PDT by clintonh8r (I love my country. I hate...HATE!!...my government.)
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To: pnut22

Somebody needs to yell “YOU LIE!” in the chamber right about now...


27 posted on 03/20/2010 1:13:55 PM PDT by onemiddleamerican (FUBO - and all your terrorist buddies, too!)
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To: Joe Marine 76

Sorry... make that “Marxist.”


28 posted on 03/20/2010 1:14:12 PM PDT by Joe Marine 76 (Semper Fi!)
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To: Uncledave

Michael Moore is unhappy with Bart Stupak.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/my-congressman-bart-stupa_b_506649.html


29 posted on 03/20/2010 1:14:13 PM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: Uncledave
Code Red

30 posted on 03/20/2010 1:14:43 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (Thank you for your contribution. Your comment has been submitted for review.)
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To: what's up

I still beleive there will be some surprise “no” votes.


31 posted on 03/20/2010 1:14:59 PM PDT by unkus
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To: Uncledave
Looks to me like we only have to grab 2 of these votes...

And Matheson looks like s strong possibility.

32 posted on 03/20/2010 1:15:00 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Uncledave

from

http://www.thehayride.com

Update 3-20, 2:35 PM: The list below is of the thirteen remaining truly undecided members. Pelosi needs all thirteen to win. There have been others that still say they are undecided but have really given strong indications of how they will vote, and almost all of those are the “leaning yes” types. So Pelosi could still lose one or two that we don’t expect. Of these true undecided, though, the first five voted “no” last time, and this would be a flip. I feel very confident about Nye, who has consistently made signals that sound like “no,” and he is in a very tough re-election fight. I’ve also been counting Space, who told Democratic leaders yesterday that he was strongly leaning towards a “no.” Berry, Carney and Kanjorski are pro-life. Though they aren’t in Stupak’s group, it’s still a factor for them. Kanjorski would also lose jobs in his district from a Sallie Mae processing center which would be negatively affected by the student loan provisions in this bill. Baird and Tanner are retiring, and they clearly don’t want to vote yes, but I expect that they will if Pelosi needs them.

Baird, Brian
Davis, Lincoln
Matheson, Jim
Nye, Glenn
Tanner, John
Foster, Bill
Kanjorski, Paul
Michaud, Mike
Ortiz, Solomon
Carney, Chris
Pomeroy, Earl
Space, Zack
Schrader, Kurt


33 posted on 03/20/2010 1:15:44 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: Uncledave

Keep praying that America prevails in this fight!


34 posted on 03/20/2010 1:16:27 PM PDT by LUV W (DIMs?......start packin'--you're fired!)
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To: unkus

“I still beleive there will be some surprise “no” votes.”

I thought this as well, perhap ssying “yes” to avoid the Chicago thugs.


35 posted on 03/20/2010 1:16:54 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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I’ve had 57 faxes in the que since 11:40 this morning. None have gone through since then. So frustrating, errrr.


36 posted on 03/20/2010 1:16:58 PM PDT by Jenny217
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To: unkus

There are probably at least 50 spineless cowards who STILL have not really decided, who are just praying the deal is done before they have to vote, so they can jump on the winning side when no courage is needed.


37 posted on 03/20/2010 1:17:13 PM PDT by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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To: onemiddleamerican

It’s a good thing i don’t have a supply of bricks in the house. If I did I would lose a tv every time that lying sack of s—t is on.


38 posted on 03/20/2010 1:17:16 PM PDT by shelterguy
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To: Uncledave
Because of his stance on his Pro-Life principles, I must say that up to now, Stupak has been heroic. If he holds out, even if this thing does pass, he will have earned that description.

I admire him for that, in part, because my pro-life views are not as strong as his I feel. Shames me in a way, a good way. I will re-evaluate my beliefs in this matter.

39 posted on 03/20/2010 1:17:31 PM PDT by Paradox (The Party of Know.)
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To: unkus
Yup...I think Boehner may possibly have a few of these locked up.

Funny...we keep hearing how Pelosi is talking to this one or that one. And Boehner's not talking to anybody?

Don't think so!!

40 posted on 03/20/2010 1:17:37 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Names Ash Housewares

“I still beleive there will be some surprise “no” votes.”

I thought this as well, perhap ssying “yes” to avoid the Chicago thugs.


Then they could hunker down and avoid the wrath of Pelosi until Beohner becomes the new Speaker after the election.


41 posted on 03/20/2010 1:19:05 PM PDT by unkus
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To: RKBA Democrat

I think that’s actually a pretty good idea.

Libs always run as Conservatives, It would be funny to see Conservatives run as a Lib and spread havoc within the party once elected.

And likely the Conservative base would get the Wink< because libs pay no attention, they only vote for the most PC popular one with the little “d” after the name.


42 posted on 03/20/2010 1:19:35 PM PDT by DanielRedfoot (What a fool believes, No wise man has the power to reason away)
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To: DanielRedfoot

I’m liking that strategery!


43 posted on 03/20/2010 1:22:13 PM PDT by homegroan (*Vote Kitteh & Squirrel 2012*!....ILLIGITIMA NON CARBORUNDUM..... -that's 4U Dad!))
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To: what's up

For the last few days, Boehner’s demeanor has impressed me as having something up his sleave.


44 posted on 03/20/2010 1:22:17 PM PDT by unkus
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To: CaptainK
So why is the MSM (including Fox) acting as though it’s in the bag?

Cause they're Deemocrats, and their commie slimeball media sycophants trust their commie slimeball overlords to pull some shenanigan and get it done.

45 posted on 03/20/2010 1:22:18 PM PDT by Still Thinking (Freedom is NOT a loophole!)
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To: clintonh8r
When Kusinich folded Sheppy described it as “good news.”

The last few nights when I've seen the Fox Report, Shep could barely conceal a smile as he loudly announces a new step toward health care deform.

Have not yet turned on the TV today...I sometimes do when I work, but not today. FR, Michael W. Smith and Steven Curtis Chapman only.
46 posted on 03/20/2010 1:22:40 PM PDT by LostInBayport (2010 - The Second American Revolution. The first shot was fired 1/19/2010 -- here in Massachusetts!)
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To: Perdogg

For what it’s worth, if they had the votes Obama would be out playing golf. Instead he is preaching to the choir.


47 posted on 03/20/2010 1:23:59 PM PDT by pnut22
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To: Diogenesis
Ab big RIGHT ON THE MONEY POST
48 posted on 03/20/2010 1:24:25 PM PDT by BOBTHENAILER ( EPA will rule your life)
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To: Names Ash Housewares

Contact Congressman Pomeroy, ND. You will find him hiding under his desk.


49 posted on 03/20/2010 1:24:31 PM PDT by kezzek
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To: unkus
Yes, I started thinking that yesterday.

He's not hysterically running after votes. He was very circumspect on Hannity.

Despite the media circus and the "triumphalism" on TV at these Dem meetings, they are short and they don't know what Boehner's doing.

50 posted on 03/20/2010 1:24:39 PM PDT by what's up
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