Skip to comments.Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List
Posted on 03/28/2010 3:42:44 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
I have been thinking for some time that we need a really good list of the House Democrats that we hope to unseat in the 2010 election. Freeper randita has compiled a very nice list that is continuously being updated and I have used that as my primary source. The idea is to get Freeper recommendations on who we should be supporting in primaries and, after the primaries, who we really think can and should win. Given those inputs I will update the chart as necessary.
I've expanded the basic "who's running" to include the kind of data that Larry Sabato uses to evaluate the races. Based on a randita recommendation, I will also add in the Primary dates. I have also recorded the YES or NO vote by the House on the final Obamacare vote. Look for errors and report them if you see them.
Also, to keep the size of the chart down to a reasonable size I have limited the number of Challengers listed to 3. The # column shows how many that are actually showing on randit's list. And I may not have the best ones listed so we need Freeper comments on who the really serious candidates are. And for sure we need to know who the RINOs are.
So I'm soliciting inputs to add to the chart, to correct errors, to identify the best candidates etc. Don't be shy. Let us know what you think.
And lastly, the chart is currently just a .png to solicit help. I will work on filling in the blanks and at some point issue a real table version with live links to the candidates websites which are in fact already entered in the Excel file.
They’re all vulnerable, IMO. Expose their dirty deeds and expose the Genocide in the DeathCare bill. TOAST
I would definitely add Mark Schauer in Michigans 7th congressional district. It had gone Republican from 1992 until 2008 when Schauer won but I am certain it will turn Republican again.
In CA 11, David Harmer seems to be the Rep choice in the primary. He has backing from most in the local party.
Carol Che-Porter, NH-1
Ye gads...BOTH of New Hampshire’s reps should be on this list...
great chart...EXCELLENT reference guide
2010 Election bump for later.........
Nicely done. The most likely viable candidate challenging Allen Boyd thus far in FL CD 2 is Steve Southerland of Panama City.
...none of the GOP members from Texas are considered vulnerable and the Obamacare passage has strengthened them. Of the Democrats, the most vulnerable and therefore targeted races are Edwards in CD-17, Rodriguez in CD-23, Cuellar in CD-28, Ortiz in CD-27 and Doggett in CD-25. Green in CD-29 also voted for Obamacare and could become vulnerable. GOP opponents for the Democrats in 17, 23 and 27 will be decided in runoffs on April 13. We have very good chances in all of these races.
Green's opponent is Roy Morales. Here is his campaign web site: http://roymorales.com/. And here is his facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Roy-Morales-For-Congress/331456341123.
Cuellar's opponent is Bryan Underwood, here is his campaign facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Republican-Party-of-Texas/91396988467?ref=ts#!/pages/Bryan-Underwood-for-Congress/191156084860?ref=mf
And here is his campaign web site: http://www.bryan-underwood.com/Underwood_for_Congress/Home.html
Dr. Donna Campbell is our nominee taking on Doggett in CD-25. Here's her facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/drdonna4tx25?ref=ts
And here is her campaign web site: http://www.drdonnaforcongress.com/
I'm sure that Morales, Underwood and Campbell are looking for volunteers and donors, and the runoff winners in the other districts will be too.
Republican Party of Texas
"Vote Republican at all levels to keep Texas strong, free and prosperous"
I ran the numbers myself and I think we have a real chance of beating Edwards and Rodriguez as their districts voted for Bush in 04 and McCain in 08.
The Cuellar and Ortiz districts voted for Bush but not McCain, and the other two for neither. We can beat the first two and perhaps the second two.
Kindly ADD Dina Titus, 3rd Nevada. Yes on HCR. Huge tool for the SEIU and other unions. Doctor Heck will knock her pants off. LOL!
We need to boot Soloman Ortiz of Texas in the worst kind of way.
Just a couple of questions as I’m not familiar with the districts...
Are the challenges from the GOP and in a primary or are they democrat challengers running against the incumbent?
What does the number in the # column represent?
What does the primary column with nothing in it intend to represent?
A note for your thinking as you go thru this process is to remember that there are nine states that have some set aside districts to meet Voting Rights Act guidelines. I think some others have some approval requirements but not statewide.
I might add that Titus won by 4% (Obama 13%)in 2008. Won strictly by Zero’s coattails and ACORN/Union corruption.
This chart shows the problem. Many of the Democrats have no opponents running against them. We need to raise up qualified candidates and fund them.
Please put Melissa Bean IL 8 on the vulnerable list. She is a big backer of Pelosi. We have had our Primary already in Illinois and Joe Walsh is the R challenger. He is supported heavily by the Illinois Tea Party groups. In a poll taken last week, he is now running one point ahead of Bean. This is a race we can win.
great list..what about Louisiana 3rd district? That is currently held by Dem Melancon..who is going to run for the senate this year (which he will lose)..the GOP should pick that up..it is very conservative..and dem picked it up in 2006 only because GOP had a terrible candidate in that race..
In California 11th...David Harmer is my choice.
In my humble opinion, whether they voted for, or against, Obamacare is a moot point. Let’s get rid of as many D’s as we are able.
Such a list is an excellent idea! Thanks...
I don’t know yet if Solomon Ortiz (TX-27) is as vulnerable as this group, but I think we can spin his vote for health care deform against him. He’s a chicken, and he won’t appear in public to answer questions from his constituents in his home county. He spent over $250,000 in 2008 against a not very well known candidate who had very little funding and only managed to get less than 58% of the vote. His Republican opponent this year will be decided in a runoff that will be held in April 13. The candidate will either be a recent member or the Nueces County Tax Appraisal District or talk show host.
It would really be helpful to eventually link the good candidates directly to their websites....for donation purposes.
I’ve walked neighborhoods for Harmer. As you suggest, most of the conservatives are endorsing him and he’s the odds on favorite to win the GOP nomination.
FL-20 what about Robert Lowry?
“Just saw an add here in Cleveland supporting John Boccieri. It was sponsored by SEIU.”
Depending on your IP address and address they have ads supporting every congressman that voted for healthcare. Almost every site I go to has an add to thank my state’s congressman for his vote, sponsored by SEIU. They own the country now.
California 8th district....John Dennis is running agains Pelosi. www.johndennis2010.com. Send a donation PLEASE. He had a money bomb on Pelosi’s 70th birthday. Don’t know how that went tho.
How about adding seats held by dems not seeking reelection? Patrick Kennedy’s seat comes to mind - and I understand that Republican John Loughlin is showing momentum there.
You are absolutely correct. D = traitor in my opinion and the opinion of millions of patriots.
The traitors have shown their anti-America hatred for one and all to see.
I am a conservative. I believe in the sovereignty and security of this one nation, under God. I believe in the sanctity of life and that life begins at conception. I believe in marriage between one man and one woman. I believe that all children in our school systems should be educated in English and taught the civic duties and responsibilities of citizenship and patriotism. I believe that we have the responsibility and obligation to control our borders and determine who is allowed to live and work in our country. I believe in private property rights and that the death tax should be killed. I believe government economic policies should reward those who build business or save and invest their money. I believe in the right to bear arms and the right of self defense. I believe in rugged individualism and that no one owes me anything just because I live and breathe. I believe we should all practice charity in some form or fashion, especially to those who are suffering and least fortunate. But charity must be voluntary and spring from a spirit of altruism and love for your neighbor. I believe that imposed systems of wealth redistribution destroy families, produce a culture of dependence and hurt everyone. Finally, I believe there is room to acknowledge the role of our Creator in public life as stated in the Declaration of Independence and the United States Constitution. ---Bill Russell in his own words .
At realclear politics they show close to 70 races that are toss up or lean that could very easily be won due to budget busting and Obamacare.
Ruppersberger (MD -2 ) is more vulnerable than Hoyer, IMO.
Jaynee Germond—THE Tea Party candidate for district 4/Oregon-—we are all working to unseat Peter DeFazio in the House of Congress. (She is running against a late-comer in the primary, Art Robison, who has NO ties to our Tea Party Movement here in Oregon).
Great idea. IP.
A few numbers for Minnick in Idaho’s 1st CD.
He was elected in 200, and barely beat an unpopular Republican (Sali) who was made more unpopular by endless anti-Sali robocalls.
Minnick 50.6%, Sali 49.4%.
McCain carried the district with 61.5% of total votes cast.
I recommend to Idaho 1st CD voters they vote Labrador in the primary. Ward looks and smells ok on early examination, but he has not lived in Idaho for many years. He is the pick of the Republican establishment. He will work for the Republican establishment.
Labrador is local. He has been in Idaho’s legislature for several years. In my opinion, he will simply be a better fit for Idaho and America. He will have my vote because he is a conservative, not because he is a Republican.
In PA-17, Dave Argall, current Pa state senator, will be running as the Republican against Tim Holden for the Senate seat.
Please add Glenn Nye VA-2. Voted no, but is a first termer, evenly gerrymandered district.
You beat me to it. For those who don't know, her district was Phil Crane's when he was in Congress.
I’m giving money to candidates who have a chance of unseating a democrat, no matter what state they are in.
We need to concentrate our money in these races where we will get the most bang for our buck.
Hey, let’s fill up both cards, Democrat and Republican, with conservatives so that no matter who wins, we win.
Please add Adam Kinzinger (Conservative Republican) to defeat Debbie Halvorsen (Liberal Democrat).
Illinois 11th Congressional District
Juan-input on the best challenger?
MI 7-Mark Schauers challengers:
Marvin Carlson, http://www.marvincarlson.com/
Greg Merle, http://www.gregmerleforcongress.com/
Brian Rooney, http://runwithrooney.com/
Mike Stahly, http://www.stahlyforcongress.com/
Tim Walberg, http://www.walbergforcongress.com/Home.aspx
Suggestion: Do this as an Excel spreadsheet, post it on GoogleDocs and widely publish the link.
You can update/change it at will and anybody following the link will always see the latest, up to date data.
Much thanks to everyone for all the replies. Give me a day or so and I will incorporate recommendations and continue filling out the chart and explaining some of the mysteries like the # sign. That’s just my code for how many primary challengers there actually are (since I’ve only listed 3 and they may not be the best 3). And the blanks - they’ll get filled in with time and some Google research.
Democrat Chet Edwards in Texas 17 has some real opposition this time. The March primary didn’t have a clear cut GOP winner so Bill Flores & Rob Curnock will have a runoff on April 13. Chet is very vulnerable.