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Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List
Interceptpoint | 28 March 2009 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 03/28/2010 3:42:44 PM PDT by InterceptPoint

I have been thinking for some time that we need a really good list of the House Democrats that we hope to unseat in the 2010 election. Freeper randita has compiled a very nice list that is continuously being updated and I have used that as my primary source. The idea is to get Freeper recommendations on who we should be supporting in primaries and, after the primaries, who we really think can and should win. Given those inputs I will update the chart as necessary.

I've expanded the basic "who's running" to include the kind of data that Larry Sabato uses to evaluate the races. Based on a randita recommendation, I will also add in the Primary dates. I have also recorded the YES or NO vote by the House on the final Obamacare vote. Look for errors and report them if you see them.

Also, to keep the size of the chart down to a reasonable size I have limited the number of Challengers listed to 3. The # column shows how many that are actually showing on randit's list. And I may not have the best ones listed so we need Freeper comments on who the really serious candidates are. And for sure we need to know who the RINOs are.

So I'm soliciting inputs to add to the chart, to correct errors, to identify the best candidates etc. Don't be shy. Let us know what you think.

And lastly, the chart is currently just a .png to solicit help. I will work on filling in the blanks and at some point issue a real table version with live links to the candidates websites which are in fact already entered in the Excel file.


TOPICS: Activism/Chapters; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: election2010; keyhouseraces; khr; obama; obamacare
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1 posted on 03/28/2010 3:42:44 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: randita; Recovering_Democrat; smoothsailing; nd76; jazusamo

ping


2 posted on 03/28/2010 3:45:22 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

They’re all vulnerable, IMO. Expose their dirty deeds and expose the Genocide in the DeathCare bill. TOAST


3 posted on 03/28/2010 3:46:55 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead (Clean the RAT/RINO Sewer in 2010 and 2012)
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To: InterceptPoint

I would definitely add Mark Schauer in Michigans 7th congressional district. It had gone Republican from 1992 until 2008 when Schauer won but I am certain it will turn Republican again.


4 posted on 03/28/2010 3:47:00 PM PDT by Juan Medén
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To: InterceptPoint

In CA 11, David Harmer seems to be the Rep choice in the primary. He has backing from most in the local party.


5 posted on 03/28/2010 3:47:31 PM PDT by bubbacluck
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To: InterceptPoint

Carol Che-Porter, NH-1


6 posted on 03/28/2010 3:48:51 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Let tyrants shake their iron rod, and slavery clank her galling chains)
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To: InterceptPoint

Ye gads...BOTH of New Hampshire’s reps should be on this list...


7 posted on 03/28/2010 3:49:34 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: InterceptPoint

great chart...EXCELLENT reference guide


8 posted on 03/28/2010 3:53:06 PM PDT by harpu ( "...it's better to be hated for who you are than loved for someone you're not!")
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To: InterceptPoint

2010 Election bump for later.........


9 posted on 03/28/2010 3:54:10 PM PDT by indthkr
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To: InterceptPoint

Nicely done. The most likely viable candidate challenging Allen Boyd thus far in FL CD 2 is Steve Southerland of Panama City.

http://www.southerlandforcongress.com/


10 posted on 03/28/2010 3:54:17 PM PDT by caper gal 1 (If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Vote Conservative.)
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To: harpu
Just saw an add here in Cleveland supporting John Boccieri. It was sponsored by SEIU.
11 posted on 03/28/2010 3:56:47 PM PDT by sharpee
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To: InterceptPoint
From the Republican Party Of Texas, in part:

...none of the GOP members from Texas are considered vulnerable and the Obamacare passage has strengthened them. Of the Democrats, the most vulnerable and therefore targeted races are Edwards in CD-17, Rodriguez in CD-23, Cuellar in CD-28, Ortiz in CD-27 and Doggett in CD-25. Green in CD-29 also voted for Obamacare and could become vulnerable. GOP opponents for the Democrats in 17, 23 and 27 will be decided in runoffs on April 13. We have very good chances in all of these races.

Green's opponent is Roy Morales. Here is his campaign web site: http://roymorales.com/. And here is his facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Roy-Morales-For-Congress/331456341123.

Cuellar's opponent is Bryan Underwood, here is his campaign facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Republican-Party-of-Texas/91396988467?ref=ts#!/pages/Bryan-Underwood-for-Congress/191156084860?ref=mf

And here is his campaign web site: http://www.bryan-underwood.com/Underwood_for_Congress/Home.html

Dr. Donna Campbell is our nominee taking on Doggett in CD-25. Here's her facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/#!/drdonna4tx25?ref=ts

And here is her campaign web site: http://www.drdonnaforcongress.com/

I'm sure that Morales, Underwood and Campbell are looking for volunteers and donors, and the runoff winners in the other districts will be too.

Bryan Preston

Communications Director

Republican Party of Texas

bpreston@texasgop.org

512-879-4062

"Vote Republican at all levels to keep Texas strong, free and prosperous"

..............

I ran the numbers myself and I think we have a real chance of beating Edwards and Rodriguez as their districts voted for Bush in 04 and McCain in 08.

The Cuellar and Ortiz districts voted for Bush but not McCain, and the other two for neither. We can beat the first two and perhaps the second two.

12 posted on 03/28/2010 3:58:49 PM PDT by TWfromTEXAS (Life is the one choice that pro choicers will not support.)
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To: InterceptPoint
I heard Senator Jon Kyl(R-AZ)on the radio recently. He said we need to have a veto proof majority as Obama will veto anything Republicans try to repeal. He speculated we would need two elections to get to a veto proof majority or elect a Republican President. That's a lot of damage that Zero and his minions will be creating. It will take a couple of decades to undo if we wait that long.
13 posted on 03/28/2010 3:58:52 PM PDT by originalbuckeye
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To: InterceptPoint

Kindly ADD Dina Titus, 3rd Nevada. Yes on HCR. Huge tool for the SEIU and other unions. Doctor Heck will knock her pants off. LOL!


14 posted on 03/28/2010 4:00:59 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: All

We need to boot Soloman Ortiz of Texas in the worst kind of way.


15 posted on 03/28/2010 4:01:41 PM PDT by patriot08 (TEXAS GAL- born and bred and proud of it!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Just a couple of questions as I’m not familiar with the districts...

Are the challenges from the GOP and in a primary or are they democrat challengers running against the incumbent?

What does the number in the # column represent?

What does the primary column with nothing in it intend to represent?

A note for your thinking as you go thru this process is to remember that there are nine states that have some set aside districts to meet Voting Rights Act guidelines. I think some others have some approval requirements but not statewide.

Thanks.


16 posted on 03/28/2010 4:02:50 PM PDT by deport
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To: InterceptPoint

I might add that Titus won by 4% (Obama 13%)in 2008. Won strictly by Zero’s coattails and ACORN/Union corruption.


17 posted on 03/28/2010 4:04:03 PM PDT by Kahuna
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To: InterceptPoint

This chart shows the problem. Many of the Democrats have no opponents running against them. We need to raise up qualified candidates and fund them.


18 posted on 03/28/2010 4:05:06 PM PDT by Citizen Tom Paine
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To: InterceptPoint

Please put Melissa Bean IL 8 on the vulnerable list. She is a big backer of Pelosi. We have had our Primary already in Illinois and Joe Walsh is the R challenger. He is supported heavily by the Illinois Tea Party groups. In a poll taken last week, he is now running one point ahead of Bean. This is a race we can win.


19 posted on 03/28/2010 4:05:40 PM PDT by libertymaker
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To: InterceptPoint

great list..what about Louisiana 3rd district? That is currently held by Dem Melancon..who is going to run for the senate this year (which he will lose)..the GOP should pick that up..it is very conservative..and dem picked it up in 2006 only because GOP had a terrible candidate in that race..


20 posted on 03/28/2010 4:07:00 PM PDT by BerniesFriend (Sarah Palin-"Lord knows she's attractive" says bitter Andrea Mitchell and the rest of the MSM)
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To: InterceptPoint
Be aware of the socialists plan to corrupt the mid term elections and beyond.

Soros Eyes Secretaries

Forget amnesty, look where Democrats now stoop for votes!
21 posted on 03/28/2010 4:07:18 PM PDT by Man50D (Fair Tax, you earn it, you keep it! www.FairTaxNation.com)
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To: InterceptPoint

http://www.harmerforcongress.com/

In California 11th...David Harmer is my choice.


22 posted on 03/28/2010 4:07:19 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: ExTexasRedhead

In my humble opinion, whether they voted for, or against, Obamacare is a moot point. Let’s get rid of as many D’s as we are able.


23 posted on 03/28/2010 4:08:19 PM PDT by Mr. Wright
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To: InterceptPoint

Such a list is an excellent idea! Thanks...


24 posted on 03/28/2010 4:09:32 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: InterceptPoint

I don’t know yet if Solomon Ortiz (TX-27) is as vulnerable as this group, but I think we can spin his vote for health care deform against him. He’s a chicken, and he won’t appear in public to answer questions from his constituents in his home county. He spent over $250,000 in 2008 against a not very well known candidate who had very little funding and only managed to get less than 58% of the vote. His Republican opponent this year will be decided in a runoff that will be held in April 13. The candidate will either be a recent member or the Nueces County Tax Appraisal District or talk show host.


25 posted on 03/28/2010 4:11:18 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative
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To: InterceptPoint

It would really be helpful to eventually link the good candidates directly to their websites....for donation purposes.


26 posted on 03/28/2010 4:11:56 PM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: liege; InterceptPoint

http://www.harmerforcongress.com/endorsements.htm

I’ve walked neighborhoods for Harmer. As you suggest, most of the conservatives are endorsing him and he’s the odds on favorite to win the GOP nomination.


27 posted on 03/28/2010 4:12:20 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Drango

FL-20 what about Robert Lowry?


28 posted on 03/28/2010 4:18:13 PM PDT by bicyclerepair (FR - my online family. From Ft. Lauderdale, Florida)
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To: sharpee

“Just saw an add here in Cleveland supporting John Boccieri. It was sponsored by SEIU.”

Depending on your IP address and address they have ads supporting every congressman that voted for healthcare. Almost every site I go to has an add to thank my state’s congressman for his vote, sponsored by SEIU. They own the country now.


29 posted on 03/28/2010 4:20:28 PM PDT by kezzek
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To: InterceptPoint

California 8th district....John Dennis is running agains Pelosi. www.johndennis2010.com. Send a donation PLEASE. He had a money bomb on Pelosi’s 70th birthday. Don’t know how that went tho.


30 posted on 03/28/2010 4:22:56 PM PDT by abigailsmybaby ( I'm not going to buy my kids an encyclopedia. Let them walk to school like I did. Yogi Berra)
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To: InterceptPoint

How about adding seats held by dems not seeking reelection? Patrick Kennedy’s seat comes to mind - and I understand that Republican John Loughlin is showing momentum there.


31 posted on 03/28/2010 4:29:35 PM PDT by LouD ("against all enemies, foreign and domestic...")
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To: Mr. Wright

You are absolutely correct. D = traitor in my opinion and the opinion of millions of patriots.

The traitors have shown their anti-America hatred for one and all to see.


32 posted on 03/28/2010 4:35:29 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead (Clean the RAT/RINO Sewer in 2010 and 2012)
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To: InterceptPoint

SUPPORT A REAL CONSERVATIVE IN THE PA-12 MAY 18th REPUBLICAN PRIMARY


LtCol William T. Russell - FOB Midway, Ad-Daluyah Provence - Fall 2004

I am a conservative. I believe in the sovereignty and security of this one nation, under God. I believe in the sanctity of life and that life begins at conception. I believe in marriage between one man and one woman. I believe that all children in our school systems should be educated in English and taught the civic duties and responsibilities of citizenship and patriotism. I believe that we have the responsibility and obligation to control our borders and determine who is allowed to live and work in our country. I believe in private property rights and that the death tax should be killed. I believe government economic policies should reward those who build business or save and invest their money. I believe in the right to bear arms and the right of self defense. I believe in rugged individualism and that no one owes me anything just because I live and breathe. I believe we should all practice charity in some form or fashion, especially to those who are suffering and least fortunate. But charity must be voluntary and spring from a spirit of altruism and love for your neighbor. I believe that imposed systems of wealth redistribution destroy families, produce a culture of dependence and hurt everyone. Finally, I believe there is room to acknowledge the role of our Creator in public life as stated in the Declaration of Independence and the United States Constitution. ---Bill Russell in his own words .

.

.

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free." --President Ronald Reagan

33 posted on 03/28/2010 4:36:22 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: ExTexasRedhead

At realclear politics they show close to 70 races that are toss up or lean that could very easily be won due to budget busting and Obamacare.


34 posted on 03/28/2010 4:37:47 PM PDT by q_an_a
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To: InterceptPoint

Ruppersberger (MD -2 ) is more vulnerable than Hoyer, IMO.


35 posted on 03/28/2010 4:42:53 PM PDT by Nonstatist
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Jaynee Germond—THE Tea Party candidate for district 4/Oregon-—we are all working to unseat Peter DeFazio in the House of Congress. (She is running against a late-comer in the primary, Art Robison, who has NO ties to our Tea Party Movement here in Oregon).


36 posted on 03/28/2010 4:45:58 PM PDT by NOBO2
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To: InterceptPoint

Great idea. IP.

A few numbers for Minnick in Idaho’s 1st CD.

He was elected in 200, and barely beat an unpopular Republican (Sali) who was made more unpopular by endless anti-Sali robocalls.

Minnick 50.6%, Sali 49.4%.

McCain carried the district with 61.5% of total votes cast.

I recommend to Idaho 1st CD voters they vote Labrador in the primary. Ward looks and smells ok on early examination, but he has not lived in Idaho for many years. He is the pick of the Republican establishment. He will work for the Republican establishment.

Labrador is local. He has been in Idaho’s legislature for several years. In my opinion, he will simply be a better fit for Idaho and America. He will have my vote because he is a conservative, not because he is a Republican.


37 posted on 03/28/2010 4:50:17 PM PDT by RobinOfKingston (Democrats, the party of evil. Republicans, the party of stupid.)
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To: InterceptPoint

In PA-17, Dave Argall, current Pa state senator, will be running as the Republican against Tim Holden for the Senate seat.


38 posted on 03/28/2010 4:50:35 PM PDT by thethirddegree
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To: InterceptPoint
I would add Glen Nyes (D) Va 2nd, Rick Boucher (D) VA 9th and Gerry Connolly, (D) VA 11th, all Virginians who are in districts that went over 50% for McDonnell in the VA Governor's race last year. Sorry, I don't know who as yet is running against them.
39 posted on 03/28/2010 4:53:18 PM PDT by when the time is right
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To: InterceptPoint

Please add Glenn Nye VA-2. Voted no, but is a first termer, evenly gerrymandered district.


40 posted on 03/28/2010 4:53:59 PM PDT by RKBA Democrat (Lord Jesus Christ, Son of God, have mercy on me, a sinner!)
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To: libertymaker
Please put Melissa Bean IL 8 on the vulnerable list.

You beat me to it. For those who don't know, her district was Phil Crane's when he was in Congress.

41 posted on 03/28/2010 4:56:03 PM PDT by BlessedBeGod (New Wizard of Oz: Pelosi as the Wicked Witch of the West & Michelle as the Wicked Witch of the East.)
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To: InterceptPoint

I’m giving money to candidates who have a chance of unseating a democrat, no matter what state they are in.

We need to concentrate our money in these races where we will get the most bang for our buck.


42 posted on 03/28/2010 4:57:13 PM PDT by webstersII
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To: InterceptPoint

Hey, let’s fill up both cards, Democrat and Republican, with conservatives so that no matter who wins, we win.


43 posted on 03/28/2010 4:58:28 PM PDT by webstersII
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To: InterceptPoint

Please add Adam Kinzinger (Conservative Republican) to defeat Debbie Halvorsen (Liberal Democrat).

Illinois 11th Congressional District


44 posted on 03/28/2010 5:02:58 PM PDT by Proangel (ASA Vet)
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To: Juan Medén; InterceptPoint

Juan-input on the best challenger?

MI 7-Mark Schauer’s challengers:
Marvin Carlson, http://www.marvincarlson.com/
Joe Schwartz
Greg Merle, http://www.gregmerleforcongress.com/
Brian Rooney, http://runwithrooney.com/
Mike Stahly, http://www.stahlyforcongress.com/
Tim Walberg, http://www.walbergforcongress.com/Home.aspx


45 posted on 03/28/2010 5:03:55 PM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: Paleo Conservative; patriot08
See my post #12. Ortiz got 57% of the vote and McCain only got 45% in 08. The fact that Bush got 55% in District 27 in 04 gives me some hope that we might win there.
46 posted on 03/28/2010 5:05:29 PM PDT by TWfromTEXAS (Life is the one choice that pro choicers will not support.)
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To: InterceptPoint
Add these challengers to FL-2 Alan Boyd: Diane Berryhill-R Tallahassee, Eddie Hendry-R, Tallhassee, Steve Southerland-R, Panama City.
My money is on Steve Southerland.
47 posted on 03/28/2010 5:05:33 PM PDT by buzzsaw6 (Obama's ideas are pulled from the ashheap of history)
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To: InterceptPoint

Suggestion: Do this as an Excel spreadsheet, post it on GoogleDocs and widely publish the link.

You can update/change it at will and anybody following the link will always see the latest, up to date data.


48 posted on 03/28/2010 5:06:00 PM PDT by upchuck (Subjects to citizens to subjects in less than 250 years.)
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To: randita

Much thanks to everyone for all the replies. Give me a day or so and I will incorporate recommendations and continue filling out the chart and explaining some of the mysteries like the # sign. That’s just my code for how many primary challengers there actually are (since I’ve only listed 3 and they may not be the best 3). And the blanks - they’ll get filled in with time and some Google research.


49 posted on 03/28/2010 5:08:14 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Democrat Chet Edwards in Texas 17 has some real opposition this time. The March primary didn’t have a clear cut GOP winner so Bill Flores & Rob Curnock will have a runoff on April 13. Chet is very vulnerable.


50 posted on 03/28/2010 5:08:35 PM PDT by McLynnan
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