Posted on 03/30/2010 11:04:58 AM PDT by faucetman
I just heard on the news that the Consumer Confidence Index was up for March at 52.5, up 6.1. I don't really follow this or understand it, but I usually notice whether it is up or down. Then they added that it is normally around 90! WHAT? I had not ever heard that before. I thought I would look into it a little bit.
Wikipedia good enough for my casual inquiry.
"The Consumer Confidence Index was started in 1967 and is benchmarked to 1985=100. This year was chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough. The Index is calculated each month on the basis of a household survey of consumers' opinions on current conditions and future expectations of the economy. Opinions on current conditions make up 40% of the index, with expectations of future conditions comprising the remaining 60%."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_Confidence_Index
So 100 is AVERAGE. I then found a graph at http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/consumer_confidence.htm
This page shows me the three graphs that represent the CCI. Right away I notice that the PRESENT SITUATION confidence was ONLY 26! (remember average year 1985 = 100)
How do you get an abysmal confidence number up? You average in a high EXPECTATIONS number. Which is more likely to be true?, What you saw happen or what you hope will happen? Let's give hope 60% and reality 40%.
The charts show what looks like a small TARP/stimulus bumps and more or less flatlines on Obama's presidency.
The recession is over? Someone better PROVE it to the American people because so far, they are not buying it. (pun intended)
The recession is barely getting started.
It’s a poll based on calls to 5,000 people....
I wouldn’t get too excited, soon those 30 and under are going to come to the realization they were suckered by Obama and have to give up 17% of their paychecks for the government takeover of healthcare.
Bricks of Bizarre Kibal must be in town. Haven’t seen that since the 70’s. That would explain the confusion.
Sitting here looking for a job at present. I have never been out of work involuntarily in all my life and 30 years of work. I see jobs out there so maybe there is a light at the end of the tunnel. I DON’T want a government job.
I’m confident that consumers are not confident consumers. To be a confident consumer, you have to confident in your consuming. This all so unexpected.<!/GREENSPAN>
There's no conspiracy to inflate the expectations number in order to affect the confidence index. In fact, confidence index looks right about where it should be.
I am about to confidently eat a cold weinie sandwich
Recession? This is the new normal. I getting bell bottoms and gold chain, dude.
Methinks no...
I think you should curb your irrational exuberance.
Recession over?.....
Land for sale in Florida.....
For example EVERY DAMN DAY ABC News tells us we've "turned the corner on the recession", and then offers a bit of evidence that has absolutely nothing to do with whether we're in or out of one. Today was the consumer confidence measure.
Honestly, I don't know how they can do it with a straight face.
oh crap. And I just added a banana.
Too much consumin’ goin on!
What about the poor folks who can’t be called because they don’t have phones. Bet their confidence is really up, hah!!
the ONLY sector that is seeing actual tangible job growth is GOVERNMENT jobs... Self-serving bastards.
What about the poor folks who can’t be called because they don’t have phones. Bet their confidence is really up, hah!!
Botox.
We have a long ways to go before reaching the bottom of Obamao’s pit.
Yikes, that is a frightening photograph — Andrea Mitchell Greenspan is an OLD lady, not some hot young chick, how many millions has she spent to make her old wrinkled true self appear like the whacked out broad in the photo???
Yes, just before the depression started months ago,
My opinion is that it will get a lot worse, with Obama care, crap and trade and amnesty. The scum bags got Obama care, which is bad enough, but if the other 2 get passed as well, I question whether the country can ever recover.
Recovery will be impossible.
I am in the recruiting business for engineers. Business is up for me but last year sucked. NO consumer confidence or industrial confidence. This years hires only due to many many lay offs from last year that they can’t get back. I’ll get my numbers this year I’m sure, but not many companies very optimistic for the long term especially with this healthcare jammed up their azzes....
I almost wish it was 1985 again but time marches on and so must we.
Yep. This is going to look tame in just a few months.
Don’t Over Gold on us.
Corporations are already reacting to Obamascare, letting their stockholders know there are going to be some serious hits. No one in the Obamao syndicate, or in the whole Democrat thugocracy, for that matter, seems to know anything about how businesses are going to be affected by this legislation. It must not have been a part of their considerations. ...I wish you well in your recruiting.
El-Erian Speaks: Economy Will Slow Dramatically In The Second Half Of 2010
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