Skip to comments.Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List - 3-31 UPDATE
Posted on 03/31/2010 6:06:29 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
I have updated our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in two files that can be downloaded from these links:
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1
Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2
These pdf files have clickable links that will bring up the web pages for each of the Republican candidates on the list. There are a few exceptions but very few.
We now have a total of 78 entries although a few of them are tenuous and will probably be deleted from the list unless there is some very strong reason for keeping them on. These vulnerable districts are those where the name of the incumbent Democrat is highlighted in blue. Typically if 3 or 4 of our selected election experts weigh in with a SAFE DEM rating for the race then it does not serve our purpose to keep that district on our list. It should be clear from the chart which races I'm referring to.
The election experts mentioned above are: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, ElectionProjection.com, CQPolitics.com and just added yesterday, The Cook Political Report. The corresponding headings on the pdf versions of the file are linked to each of these websites so you can check them out yourself. I'm assuming that the ratings for each of these sites will change as the election cycle progresses and it is our plan to keep up to date with the latest view of of each of them. I'm hoping that we can get some help in this area. Watch for changes to any of the races and post your recommended updates. Note that these ratings have been used to select the races that we are covering. We're not interested in sure Dem wins or sure Republican wins. We are less interested in Likely Republican wins. We are focused on those districts that are Leaning Democrat, Toss-Up and Leaning Republican. But a few Likely Republican and several Likely Democrat races are on our list. Also a few Vacant Republican districts are on the list. IL-10 and FL-12 are good examples of this. I will update the chart to highlight all of the Open R seats at some point.
We have managed to get a "Freeper Endorsement" for a total of 38 of the 78 districts on our list, just short of 50%. What that means is that we have received information via Freeper posts and Freeper mail that indicates the "endorsed" candidate is the right choice, should or could win the Primary and has what it takes to win in November. And the candidate has the right qualifications - no RINOs please. All "Freeper Endorsed" candidates are highlighted in blue with a * in front of their name in the "Main Challenger" column of the chart.
As I stated in yesterday's post, our biggest problem is getting "Freeper Endorsements" for the rest of the list. That's what I'm going to be working on. That's what randita's going to be working on and we are looking for all the help we can get. If this turns out to be a really good and accurate list it will get widely distributed and it will be used to help our favored candidates. That's the whole idea here. And ideas for getting that wide distribution are welcomed.
LOL. I've been busy.
Adam's been very busy traveling throughout SWVA over the past few weeks, making strong connections with both the state and local GOP organizations, and building solid grassroots support.
He has a very good chance of winning the nomination to take on and ultimately beat Boucher since he actually lives in Tazewell, is a land/mining surveyor, and is heavly involved with the local tea parties, unlike the GOP apparatchnik Griffith, who has none of the essential credentials to be a successful SWVA candidate.
Specifically, I'm concerned about primary candidates brandishing endorsements by people who really don't know who they are and trying to end-run the voters by getting into duelling-endorsement peeing contests.
In addition to some of the wacky endorsements I've seen lately, we (Western Colorado) have chronic problems with the NRA being fooled by leftists who masquerade as constitutionalists to get their endorsement.
"Freeper Endorsement" just means we have received an input from a, hopefully, trusted Freeper. So far those inputs seem to track with what we are seeing elsewhere and, in many cases, we have the same recommendation from multiple members of Free Republic.
But, as you note, the process is messy and we can have problems. But right now we are looking to get more inputs to fill out the "Main Challenger" column of the chart with the best candidates. That's a big job and we need all the help we can get. So we are taking recommendations without a lot of vetting. I think the vetting will take care of itself as the list matures. At least that is the hope.
PA-3: Dahlkemper is probably a lot more vulnerable than shown here. She is a weak candidate and an Obama Kool-Aid drinker in a district which is largely rural except for Erie, the largest city and a bastion of unionism. She only won this district in 2006.
PA-4: Altmeier is only a little less vulnerable, despite his vote against ObamaCare. Similar demographics to PA-3, but dominated more by the Pittsburgh suburbs who are mostly less liberal than Erie.
PA-12: Murtha is gone, and with him his porky seniority perks. I think the only way the Republicans can lose this is if they have an overly nasty primary.
PA-10: Carney is a total ass and represents a geographically large district. There may not be enough rust belt retired union workers to save him this time.
PA-17: Holden, unfortunately, is a lock because of the district demographics: parts of Pittsburgh plus its most liberal suburbs who make their living in academia or on the public teat.
Larry Sabato - he is so in bed with the DNC - I don’t trust anything of his predictions intended to influence elections.
I’ve added Adam Light as a “Freeper Endorsed” candidate but behind the current favorite: Morgan Griffith. If you have any info that would argue in favor of Light being the best choice for VA-9 seat please pass it on.
I'm not sure you're right about that but in any case Sabato has a pretty good reputation for accuracy. His predictions are very accurate. I really wish that Michael Barone would do an equivalent evaluation of the races but if he has I haven't found it.
And note that we are carrying 4 different "experts" at this time. If there is a Dem bias in any of them it will stand out.
I grew up with Adam and his dad worked for years with mine in the coal mines. So, I can certainly vouch for his character and commitment to the Conservative cause.
He's currently undergoing the vetting process with the Independence Caucus for its endorsement.
The American Spectator also did a nice piece on him a couple of weeks ago:
Pallone is on the 2nd tier list we are keeping. We're aware that Christie carried his district handily and are keeping that in mind. If more information becomes available indicating Pallone is in trouble, then he will be moved to the 1st tier list.
Here is a tentative list of Pallone's challengers. We need input on who the best candidate of these is.
Diane Gooch, http://www.dianegoochforcongress.com/
James Hogan, http://www.ferguscullen.com/
Anna Little, http://www.annalittleforcongress.com/
Freeper endorsement is not a scientific criteria, so keep that in mind.
But if a Freeper, by either Reply or Freepmail recommends a particular challenger and vouches for the fact that said challenger stands for conservative values, then that candidate is moved to the 1st position. A second criteria is whether or not the candidate has the background, experience and financial backing to make the race competitive.
Some of the candidates have received numerous FReeper endorsements and others, only one. In some cases, more than one of the challengers has received a FReeper endorsement.
Again, this is not scientific, but we have to start somewhere.
In the case of IL, the candidates are set and in the case of TX, they will be set by April 18 (run off). There are a lot of primaries in May.
Adam Light does not have an official website that I could find. Do you know of one? Shouldn’t he get one up soon if he wants to be taken seriously?
Sanchez is not save.It will be a fight for the witch. Stupak???? do not know the are he represents. Pelosi is in SF, come on that is like 90% rat.
Turn that energy into defeating all the Landrieu clones.
Turn that energy into defeating all the Landrieu clones.
I keep reminding her we won’t forget in 2012.
here is an idea to consider:
break the list up and do a thread just on the northeast ... maybe have 8 regions .... a different thread for each region ... all 50 states in one thread is overwhelming.
in NH-2 RINO NARAL Bass is “the leader” in race for nomination ... anyone have info on Tom Herrmann CT-4? details on positions?