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Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List - 3-31 UPDATE
Interceptpoint | 31 March 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 03/31/2010 6:06:29 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

I have updated our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in two files that can be downloaded from these links:

Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1

Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2

These pdf files have clickable links that will bring up the web pages for each of the Republican candidates on the list. There are a few exceptions but very few.

We now have a total of 78 entries although a few of them are tenuous and will probably be deleted from the list unless there is some very strong reason for keeping them on. These vulnerable districts are those where the name of the incumbent Democrat is highlighted in blue. Typically if 3 or 4 of our selected election experts weigh in with a SAFE DEM rating for the race then it does not serve our purpose to keep that district on our list. It should be clear from the chart which races I'm referring to.

The election experts mentioned above are: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, ElectionProjection.com, CQPolitics.com and just added yesterday, The Cook Political Report. The corresponding headings on the pdf versions of the file are linked to each of these websites so you can check them out yourself. I'm assuming that the ratings for each of these sites will change as the election cycle progresses and it is our plan to keep up to date with the latest view of of each of them. I'm hoping that we can get some help in this area. Watch for changes to any of the races and post your recommended updates. Note that these ratings have been used to select the races that we are covering. We're not interested in sure Dem wins or sure Republican wins. We are less interested in Likely Republican wins. We are focused on those districts that are Leaning Democrat, Toss-Up and Leaning Republican. But a few Likely Republican and several Likely Democrat races are on our list. Also a few Vacant Republican districts are on the list. IL-10 and FL-12 are good examples of this. I will update the chart to highlight all of the Open R seats at some point.

We have managed to get a "Freeper Endorsement" for a total of 38 of the 78 districts on our list, just short of 50%. What that means is that we have received information via Freeper posts and Freeper mail that indicates the "endorsed" candidate is the right choice, should or could win the Primary and has what it takes to win in November. And the candidate has the right qualifications - no RINOs please. All "Freeper Endorsed" candidates are highlighted in blue with a * in front of their name in the "Main Challenger" column of the chart.

As I stated in yesterday's post, our biggest problem is getting "Freeper Endorsements" for the rest of the list. That's what I'm going to be working on. That's what randita's going to be working on and we are looking for all the help we can get. If this turns out to be a really good and accurate list it will get widely distributed and it will be used to help our favored candidates. That's the whole idea here. And ideas for getting that wide distribution are welcomed.

..

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TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: boucher; election2010; keyhouseraces; khr; obama; vulnerabledems
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The March 31, 2010 update to our Vulnerable House Democrats Master List
1 posted on 03/31/2010 6:06:29 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: randita; Recovering_Democrat; smoothsailing; nd76; jazusamo; Juan Medén; liege; Jim Noble; ...

Today’s update to our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats.


2 posted on 03/31/2010 6:09:39 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Personally I think the race for Michigan’s 7th district is a bit better than a toss up but we’ll have to overcome SEIU money to lock it in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Walberg

http://www.walbergforcongress.com/Home.aspx


3 posted on 03/31/2010 6:11:30 AM PDT by cripplecreek (Remember the River Raisin! (look it up))
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To: InterceptPoint

How about investigate and expose all of them so we can clean the sewer in November. Make it squeaky clean of corrupt anti-American sleaze.


4 posted on 03/31/2010 6:11:40 AM PDT by ExTexasRedhead (Clean the RAT/RINO Sewer in 2010 and 2012)
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To: InterceptPoint

78? That’s all?

219 voted for Healthcare. Not even half of them are in trouble for their vote.


5 posted on 03/31/2010 6:13:34 AM PDT by Tzimisce (No thanks. We have enough government already. - The Tick)
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To: InterceptPoint

I hope we can add Mary Landrieu to the list for 2012.


6 posted on 03/31/2010 6:17:52 AM PDT by Bitsy
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To: InterceptPoint

This would probably be perceived as “a threat”.

Actually, it is. The dems really don’t take kindly to anyone that threatens their POWER to restrict our liberty.


7 posted on 03/31/2010 6:18:46 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a humanist and a Satanist is that the latter knows who he's working for.)
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To: InterceptPoint
I guarantee NH-1 for Frank Guinta. The RATs got 2 big (well, big for NH) cities into NH-1, Portsmouth and Manchester. That's been a tough hill to climb.

Guinta is the popular ex-mayor of Manchester, and there aren't many trucons to split the vote.

Guinta in NH-1 is a done deal. You heard it here first.

8 posted on 03/31/2010 6:22:33 AM PDT by Jim Noble (Let tyrants shake their iron rod, and slavery clank her galling chains)
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To: Bitsy
I hope we can add Mary Landrieu to the list for 2012.

Right now we are focused on the House races. I'm hoping someone else will work the Senate.

9 posted on 03/31/2010 6:22:41 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

The sad thing here is that Pelosi, Sanchez and Stupak (among others) are SAFE D. Should we be flooding these areas with money or is that just throwing money away? Is there ANY hope that a Scott Brown moment could happen in one of those three districts? If there is any hope, I would love to see a concerted effort to go after those seats.


10 posted on 03/31/2010 6:23:09 AM PDT by Eagle of Liberty (I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve - STUPAK)
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To: InterceptPoint

I would suggest adding NJ-6 Representative Frank Pallone to your list.

Republican Chris Christie beat John Corzine by 15.5% in Pallone’s district last November. I don’t think the Democrats have done anything to endear themselves to the voters in the mean time.

Christie is giving the voters of New Jersey an education in responsible Republican government. I would not be at all surprised to see the voters responding favorably across-the-board in the Fall.


11 posted on 03/31/2010 6:23:48 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (Gov. Chris Christie (R) won the NJ-6 held by Rep. Frank Pallone (D) by a 15.5% margin!)
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To: InterceptPoint

VERY well done!


12 posted on 03/31/2010 6:25:10 AM PDT by SumProVita (Cogito, ergo...Sum Pro Vita. (Modified Decartes))
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To: Kerretarded
The sad thing here is that Pelosi, Sanchez and Stupak (among others) are SAFE D. Should we be flooding these areas with money or is that just throwing money away? Is there ANY hope that a Scott Brown moment could happen in one of those three districts? If there is any hope, I would love to see a concerted effort to go after those seats.

You have my sympathy and that of many other Freepers. For the near term I'm keeping the Stupak seat in play because it is likely that a major effort will be made to unseat him. Time will tell on that one. Ditto FL-22 where Allen West is running and has great support. It looks bleak right now based on our "expert election evaluators" but I think we have a shot at it. We need some polling. Likewise with Sanchez.

13 posted on 03/31/2010 6:29:53 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

This sounds like a job for Sarah Palin!


14 posted on 03/31/2010 6:33:16 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (November can't come soon enough!)
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To: Tzimisce

In the March 29th edition of The Weekly Standard, an article by Johnathan V. Last titled “Polls Apart” makes some important points about the nature of support for Obama and, ultimately, congressional democrats. Last states that while support for Obama in the overall population has dropped precipitously since his inauguration, support among the African-American community has actually increased from the mid-80’s to the low-to-mid 90’s. This support by Obama’s core group has been a major factor in keeping his approval numbers within sniffing distance of the vital 50% threshold.

But—here’s the author’s key point: Although Blacks make up 12% of the U.S. population in general, the black population is highly concentrated, primarily in the inner cities. So, my take on the article is that we will still have areas such as Watts or Newark where everyone loves Obama. These districts are totally safe democrat seats. No amount of poverty, crime, drugs, or poor education foisted upon the inhabitants by a half-century of democrat rule will ever get them to pull the lever next to the letter “R.”

But, the converse is that most districts have an African-American population that is well below the national average of 12%, and support for Obama in particular and democrats in general will be more dependent upon actual policies than the skin color of the policy maker. Lack of support for Obama will almost certainly result in a concomitant lack of support for democrat congressional candidates.


15 posted on 03/31/2010 6:37:19 AM PDT by TruthShallSetYouFree (Barack Obama: Government:: Bernie Madoff: Finance)
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To: InterceptPoint

Right now we are focused on the House races. I’m hoping someone else will work the Senate.

Oops. I can’t believe I did that AGAIN. My congressman, Steve Scalise is a good guy so I have no problem with our congressman. But, I am so obsessed with getting Landrieu out I keep throwing her name into whatever conversation is going on about getting the critters out of our government. I have to calm down a bit and pay more attention. Sorry.


16 posted on 03/31/2010 6:52:40 AM PDT by Bitsy
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To: InterceptPoint

Right now we are focused on the House races. I’m hoping someone else will work the Senate.

Also, last time I made the mistake of putting Landrieus name in a congress conversation, I got spanked considerably. I hope I can escape the wrath this time:)


17 posted on 03/31/2010 6:54:16 AM PDT by Bitsy
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To: InterceptPoint

Nice work, but you forgot to put some crosshairs on that chart.


18 posted on 03/31/2010 6:57:42 AM PDT by smokingfrog (Free Men will always be armed with the Truth.)
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To: InterceptPoint

The experts say Texas 25 is safe for Democrat incumbent Lloyd Doggett. Maybe so, but I intend to work hard to defeat him. He is a true-believer socialist, plaintiff’s trial lawyer. For the sake of freedom and sanity, he really needs to go.


19 posted on 03/31/2010 7:01:13 AM PDT by olrtex
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To: InterceptPoint
I'm not sure what "Freeper Endorsement" means. How is this determined?

Specifically, I'm concerned about primary candidates brandishing endorsements by people who really don't know who they are and trying to end-run the voters by getting into duelling-endorsement peeing contests.

In addition to some of the wacky endorsements I've seen lately, we (Western Colorado) have chronic problems with the NRA being fooled by leftists who masquerade as constitutionalists to get their endorsement.

20 posted on 03/31/2010 7:07:01 AM PDT by snarkpup (We need to replace our politicians before they replace us.)
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To: smokingfrog
Nice work, but you forgot to put some crosshairs on that chart.

LOL. I've been busy.

21 posted on 03/31/2010 7:10:43 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

bookmark


22 posted on 03/31/2010 7:16:05 AM PDT by fightinJAG (Are you a Twitter activist? Freepmail me & let's talk.)
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To: InterceptPoint; All
For Virginia's 9th District (Rick Boucher), you need to add Adam Light as a serious GOP challenger:

Shine a 'Light' on Congress

Adam's been very busy traveling throughout SWVA over the past few weeks, making strong connections with both the state and local GOP organizations, and building solid grassroots support.

He has a very good chance of winning the nomination to take on and ultimately beat Boucher since he actually lives in Tazewell, is a land/mining surveyor, and is heavly involved with the local tea parties, unlike the GOP apparatchnik Griffith, who has none of the essential credentials to be a successful SWVA candidate.

23 posted on 03/31/2010 7:19:00 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: snarkpup
I'm not sure what "Freeper Endorsement" means. How is this determined?

Specifically, I'm concerned about primary candidates brandishing endorsements by people who really don't know who they are and trying to end-run the voters by getting into duelling-endorsement peeing contests.

In addition to some of the wacky endorsements I've seen lately, we (Western Colorado) have chronic problems with the NRA being fooled by leftists who masquerade as constitutionalists to get their endorsement.

"Freeper Endorsement" just means we have received an input from a, hopefully, trusted Freeper. So far those inputs seem to track with what we are seeing elsewhere and, in many cases, we have the same recommendation from multiple members of Free Republic.

But, as you note, the process is messy and we can have problems. But right now we are looking to get more inputs to fill out the "Main Challenger" column of the chart with the best candidates. That's a big job and we need all the help we can get. So we are taking recommendations without a lot of vetting. I think the vetting will take care of itself as the list matures. At least that is the hope.

24 posted on 03/31/2010 7:19:16 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint
Great list, though I wonder if all the fallout from ObamaCare has settled yet. Comments on the PA seats:

PA-3: Dahlkemper is probably a lot more vulnerable than shown here. She is a weak candidate and an Obama Kool-Aid drinker in a district which is largely rural except for Erie, the largest city and a bastion of unionism. She only won this district in 2006.

PA-4: Altmeier is only a little less vulnerable, despite his vote against ObamaCare. Similar demographics to PA-3, but dominated more by the Pittsburgh suburbs who are mostly less liberal than Erie.

PA-12: Murtha is gone, and with him his porky seniority perks. I think the only way the Republicans can lose this is if they have an overly nasty primary.

PA-10: Carney is a total ass and represents a geographically large district. There may not be enough rust belt retired union workers to save him this time.

PA-17: Holden, unfortunately, is a lock because of the district demographics: parts of Pittsburgh plus its most liberal suburbs who make their living in academia or on the public teat.

25 posted on 03/31/2010 7:24:30 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: InterceptPoint

Larry Sabato - he is so in bed with the DNC - I don’t trust anything of his predictions intended to influence elections.


26 posted on 03/31/2010 7:27:05 AM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is the 4th of July, democrats believe every day is April 15)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

I’ve added Adam Light as a “Freeper Endorsed” candidate but behind the current favorite: Morgan Griffith. If you have any info that would argue in favor of Light being the best choice for VA-9 seat please pass it on.


27 posted on 03/31/2010 7:27:15 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: OrioleFan
Larry Sabato - he is so in bed with the DNC - I don’t trust anything of his predictions intended to influence elections.

I'm not sure you're right about that but in any case Sabato has a pretty good reputation for accuracy. His predictions are very accurate. I really wish that Michael Barone would do an equivalent evaluation of the races but if he has I haven't found it.

And note that we are carrying 4 different "experts" at this time. If there is a Dem bias in any of them it will stand out.

28 posted on 03/31/2010 7:30:40 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint
I'm at work right now, but please check out his links since he's a committed Constitutionalist and is a small business owner with deep roots within the SWVA coal fields.

I grew up with Adam and his dad worked for years with mine in the coal mines. So, I can certainly vouch for his character and commitment to the Conservative cause.

He's currently undergoing the vetting process with the Independence Caucus for its endorsement.

The American Spectator also did a nice piece on him a couple of weeks ago:

Do Ordinary Americans Still Matter?

29 posted on 03/31/2010 7:43:29 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: Haiku Guy
I would suggest adding NJ-6 Representative Frank Pallone to your list.

Pallone is on the 2nd tier list we are keeping. We're aware that Christie carried his district handily and are keeping that in mind. If more information becomes available indicating Pallone is in trouble, then he will be moved to the 1st tier list.

Here is a tentative list of Pallone's challengers. We need input on who the best candidate of these is.

Diane Gooch, http://www.dianegoochforcongress.com/
James Hogan, http://www.ferguscullen.com/
Anna Little, http://www.annalittleforcongress.com/

30 posted on 03/31/2010 7:58:55 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: snarkpup

Freeper endorsement is not a scientific criteria, so keep that in mind.

But if a Freeper, by either Reply or Freepmail recommends a particular challenger and vouches for the fact that said challenger stands for conservative values, then that candidate is moved to the 1st position. A second criteria is whether or not the candidate has the background, experience and financial backing to make the race competitive.

Some of the candidates have received numerous FReeper endorsements and others, only one. In some cases, more than one of the challengers has received a FReeper endorsement.

Again, this is not scientific, but we have to start somewhere.

In the case of IL, the candidates are set and in the case of TX, they will be set by April 18 (run off). There are a lot of primaries in May.


31 posted on 03/31/2010 8:07:49 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

Adam Light does not have an official website that I could find. Do you know of one? Shouldn’t he get one up soon if he wants to be taken seriously?


32 posted on 03/31/2010 8:11:32 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: randita
Adam N. Light for Congress

And here is his Facebook Page, a la Sarah Palin.

33 posted on 03/31/2010 8:14:59 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: Kerretarded

Sanchez is not save.It will be a fight for the witch. Stupak???? do not know the are he represents. Pelosi is in SF, come on that is like 90% rat.


34 posted on 03/31/2010 8:33:32 AM PDT by TJC
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To: Bitsy

Turn that energy into defeating all the Landrieu clones.


35 posted on 03/31/2010 8:37:45 AM PDT by TJC
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To: TJC

Turn that energy into defeating all the Landrieu clones.

I keep reminding her we won’t forget in 2012.


36 posted on 03/31/2010 9:06:16 AM PDT by Bitsy
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To: TJC
Pelosi is in SF, come on that is like 90% rat.

Exactly....So she has a life seat in the House? I guess so.
37 posted on 03/31/2010 9:10:07 AM PDT by Eagle of Liberty (I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve - STUPAK)
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To: InterceptPoint

here is an idea to consider:

break the list up and do a thread just on the northeast ... maybe have 8 regions .... a different thread for each region ... all 50 states in one thread is overwhelming.


38 posted on 03/31/2010 9:37:20 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: campaignPete R-CT

in NH-2 RINO NARAL Bass is “the leader” in race for nomination ... anyone have info on Tom Herrmann CT-4? details on positions?


39 posted on 03/31/2010 9:41:38 AM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: campaignPete R-CT

Check here:

http://jointeamtom.com/


40 posted on 03/31/2010 9:46:19 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: InterceptPoint

NH 2-Tom Herrmann’s official website (I might have listed the facebook site before):

http://jointeamtom.com/


41 posted on 03/31/2010 9:47:30 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: InterceptPoint

‘ve been seeing alot of posts on several of the teaparty sites about how Morgan Griffith is the one to beat in the 9th district. This really is a little strange to me. I have only recently gotten into to whole political thing, mainly because of all the anti-constitutional stuff that is being done to us.

I personally have decided to pull for Adam Light because I feel that he, more than any of the other candidates, personifies what the people of the 9th district are. He is a small business owner (LBL & Associates, surveyors and engineers) and he has first hand experience in the coal mining industry, plus, he actuallly lives and works here in the 9th district. When I think of electing someone to represent us, the people of Southwest Virginia, I don’t think of a lawyer or a career politician. I think of someone who most represents what we, the people of this area, actually are. Most of the people in the 9th district come from middle class, blue collar families. We are regular, hard working, taxpaying families, who believe in God, Country and family. I don’t know about the rest of you out there, but, I personally don’t have any lawyers or career politicians in my family tree. For once, I would just like to have someone pulling for me that is just a regular person. Adam is running in this campaign because he truly believes that he can make a difference for our area and the people in it. He believes in the Constitution and our rights with all his heart. He is against any and all programs that would “redistribute the wealth”, he is against cap and trade because he knows it would basically kill our way of life here in the 9th district, he supports term limits to ensure that we never have another situation like the Rick Boucher fiasco, and he is all for a flat rate tax. I’ve known Adam and his family for nine years now and can personally attest to his moral character and work ethics.

So, before handing this nomination over to yet another lawyer/politician, I would ask that all my fellow 9th district people take the time to at least entertain the other options out there. This has been a really bad year for America, but, it has also been a little exciting watching all the patriotic people finally coming out of the woodwork to take a stand for their freedoms and rights. Please take the time to at least go to Adam’s website and check him out for yourselves at www.lightforcongress.com.


42 posted on 03/31/2010 9:57:09 AM PDT by Terran LeAnn Ratliff
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To: Terran LeAnn Ratliff
So, before handing this nomination over to yet another lawyer/politician, I would ask that all my fellow 9th district people take the time to at least entertain the other options out there.

Amen to THAT!

43 posted on 03/31/2010 10:04:37 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: olrtex

“plaintiff’s trial lawyer”

I have said for a very long time that if they are going to play class warfare, we can play back.

Lawyers are not loved and trial lawyers are loathed. The words “protection racket” should be used as often as possible. “Getting rich off of others’ suffering”, etc.


44 posted on 03/31/2010 10:10:33 AM PDT by AmishDude (It doesn't matter whom you vote for, it matters who takes office.)
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To: randita

I like Anna Little. She is an elected official (Mayor of Highlands, NJ) and looks good on the issues. She is forthrightly pro-Life and pro-2A. She has good chops on budgets and financial discipline. She has won five elections and looks like she knows what she is doing.

Diane Gooch is a self-financing candidate who’s money comes from newspaper publishing. She has never held elective office. The RNC likes her because they will not have to put any money into this race, but she does not look like the kind of candidate who can take advantage of the anti-spending, anti-big-government feeling in New Jersey right now. She seems kind of “country-clubbie” and squishy on the issues, IMHO.

James Hogan, I don’t know...


45 posted on 03/31/2010 10:17:38 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (Gov. Chris Christie (R) won the NJ-6 held by Rep. Frank Pallone (D) by a 15.5% margin!)
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To: Kerretarded

Yes but whether the witch is 3rd in line to the POTUS and speaker is not.... If we do what we need to in November.
There are seats in the house that will always be extreme left. Pockets of loonies.


46 posted on 03/31/2010 11:01:14 AM PDT by TJC
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To: InterceptPoint

Note Post 45-endorsement for Anna Little in NJ 6-Pallone.


47 posted on 03/31/2010 11:43:16 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: randita

Anna Little is now *Anna Little on our “not quite ready” list.


48 posted on 03/31/2010 11:55:20 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Looks like 49 get reelected and 24 possible pickups. DE is a probable loss. Nothing much will change.


49 posted on 03/31/2010 11:57:57 AM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: randita

why is herrmann listed with a * having Freeper endorsement?


50 posted on 03/31/2010 1:17:47 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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