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Vulnerable House Democrats - A Master List - 3-31 UPDATE
Interceptpoint | 31 March 2010 | Interceptpoint

Posted on 03/31/2010 6:06:29 AM PDT by InterceptPoint

I have updated our Master List of Vulnerable House Democrats. I've posted the normal .png versions of the Excel file below and have uploaded pdf versions in two files that can be downloaded from these links:

Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 1

Master List of Vulnerable Democrats - Page 2

These pdf files have clickable links that will bring up the web pages for each of the Republican candidates on the list. There are a few exceptions but very few.

We now have a total of 78 entries although a few of them are tenuous and will probably be deleted from the list unless there is some very strong reason for keeping them on. These vulnerable districts are those where the name of the incumbent Democrat is highlighted in blue. Typically if 3 or 4 of our selected election experts weigh in with a SAFE DEM rating for the race then it does not serve our purpose to keep that district on our list. It should be clear from the chart which races I'm referring to.

The election experts mentioned above are: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, ElectionProjection.com, CQPolitics.com and just added yesterday, The Cook Political Report. The corresponding headings on the pdf versions of the file are linked to each of these websites so you can check them out yourself. I'm assuming that the ratings for each of these sites will change as the election cycle progresses and it is our plan to keep up to date with the latest view of of each of them. I'm hoping that we can get some help in this area. Watch for changes to any of the races and post your recommended updates. Note that these ratings have been used to select the races that we are covering. We're not interested in sure Dem wins or sure Republican wins. We are less interested in Likely Republican wins. We are focused on those districts that are Leaning Democrat, Toss-Up and Leaning Republican. But a few Likely Republican and several Likely Democrat races are on our list. Also a few Vacant Republican districts are on the list. IL-10 and FL-12 are good examples of this. I will update the chart to highlight all of the Open R seats at some point.

We have managed to get a "Freeper Endorsement" for a total of 38 of the 78 districts on our list, just short of 50%. What that means is that we have received information via Freeper posts and Freeper mail that indicates the "endorsed" candidate is the right choice, should or could win the Primary and has what it takes to win in November. And the candidate has the right qualifications - no RINOs please. All "Freeper Endorsed" candidates are highlighted in blue with a * in front of their name in the "Main Challenger" column of the chart.

As I stated in yesterday's post, our biggest problem is getting "Freeper Endorsements" for the rest of the list. That's what I'm going to be working on. That's what randita's going to be working on and we are looking for all the help we can get. If this turns out to be a really good and accurate list it will get widely distributed and it will be used to help our favored candidates. That's the whole idea here. And ideas for getting that wide distribution are welcomed.

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TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: boucher; election2010; keyhouseraces; khr; obama; vulnerabledems
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To: InterceptPoint

NH 2-Tom Herrmann’s official website (I might have listed the facebook site before):

http://jointeamtom.com/


41 posted on 03/31/2010 9:47:30 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: InterceptPoint

‘ve been seeing alot of posts on several of the teaparty sites about how Morgan Griffith is the one to beat in the 9th district. This really is a little strange to me. I have only recently gotten into to whole political thing, mainly because of all the anti-constitutional stuff that is being done to us.

I personally have decided to pull for Adam Light because I feel that he, more than any of the other candidates, personifies what the people of the 9th district are. He is a small business owner (LBL & Associates, surveyors and engineers) and he has first hand experience in the coal mining industry, plus, he actuallly lives and works here in the 9th district. When I think of electing someone to represent us, the people of Southwest Virginia, I don’t think of a lawyer or a career politician. I think of someone who most represents what we, the people of this area, actually are. Most of the people in the 9th district come from middle class, blue collar families. We are regular, hard working, taxpaying families, who believe in God, Country and family. I don’t know about the rest of you out there, but, I personally don’t have any lawyers or career politicians in my family tree. For once, I would just like to have someone pulling for me that is just a regular person. Adam is running in this campaign because he truly believes that he can make a difference for our area and the people in it. He believes in the Constitution and our rights with all his heart. He is against any and all programs that would “redistribute the wealth”, he is against cap and trade because he knows it would basically kill our way of life here in the 9th district, he supports term limits to ensure that we never have another situation like the Rick Boucher fiasco, and he is all for a flat rate tax. I’ve known Adam and his family for nine years now and can personally attest to his moral character and work ethics.

So, before handing this nomination over to yet another lawyer/politician, I would ask that all my fellow 9th district people take the time to at least entertain the other options out there. This has been a really bad year for America, but, it has also been a little exciting watching all the patriotic people finally coming out of the woodwork to take a stand for their freedoms and rights. Please take the time to at least go to Adam’s website and check him out for yourselves at www.lightforcongress.com.


42 posted on 03/31/2010 9:57:09 AM PDT by Terran LeAnn Ratliff
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To: Terran LeAnn Ratliff
So, before handing this nomination over to yet another lawyer/politician, I would ask that all my fellow 9th district people take the time to at least entertain the other options out there.

Amen to THAT!

43 posted on 03/31/2010 10:04:37 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner (Sarah Palin has crossed the Rubicon!)
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To: olrtex

“plaintiff’s trial lawyer”

I have said for a very long time that if they are going to play class warfare, we can play back.

Lawyers are not loved and trial lawyers are loathed. The words “protection racket” should be used as often as possible. “Getting rich off of others’ suffering”, etc.


44 posted on 03/31/2010 10:10:33 AM PDT by AmishDude (It doesn't matter whom you vote for, it matters who takes office.)
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To: randita

I like Anna Little. She is an elected official (Mayor of Highlands, NJ) and looks good on the issues. She is forthrightly pro-Life and pro-2A. She has good chops on budgets and financial discipline. She has won five elections and looks like she knows what she is doing.

Diane Gooch is a self-financing candidate who’s money comes from newspaper publishing. She has never held elective office. The RNC likes her because they will not have to put any money into this race, but she does not look like the kind of candidate who can take advantage of the anti-spending, anti-big-government feeling in New Jersey right now. She seems kind of “country-clubbie” and squishy on the issues, IMHO.

James Hogan, I don’t know...


45 posted on 03/31/2010 10:17:38 AM PDT by Haiku Guy (Gov. Chris Christie (R) won the NJ-6 held by Rep. Frank Pallone (D) by a 15.5% margin!)
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To: Kerretarded

Yes but whether the witch is 3rd in line to the POTUS and speaker is not.... If we do what we need to in November.
There are seats in the house that will always be extreme left. Pockets of loonies.


46 posted on 03/31/2010 11:01:14 AM PDT by TJC
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To: InterceptPoint

Note Post 45-endorsement for Anna Little in NJ 6-Pallone.


47 posted on 03/31/2010 11:43:16 AM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: randita

Anna Little is now *Anna Little on our “not quite ready” list.


48 posted on 03/31/2010 11:55:20 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Looks like 49 get reelected and 24 possible pickups. DE is a probable loss. Nothing much will change.


49 posted on 03/31/2010 11:57:57 AM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners)
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To: randita

why is herrmann listed with a * having Freeper endorsement?


50 posted on 03/31/2010 1:17:47 PM PDT by campaignPete R-CT ("pray without ceasing" - Paul of Tarsus)
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To: InterceptPoint; randita

LOOKING GOOD!!!

51 posted on 03/31/2010 1:31:49 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: InterceptPoint

I used to think Sabato was OK until something he said (I wish I could remember what it was) just set me off a couple of years ago. I think he was pushing Obama over Hillary and it wasn’t a prediction so much as it was trying to influence the vote. After that, I haven’t trusted him. Maybe you’re right, but I take everything he says with a grain of salt.


52 posted on 03/31/2010 1:32:07 PM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is the 4th of July, democrats believe every day is April 15)
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To: InterceptPoint

Oh, I forgot to say: You’ve done a very good job here. Thanks!


53 posted on 03/31/2010 1:33:55 PM PDT by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is the 4th of July, democrats believe every day is April 15)
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To: Haiku Guy
I would suggest adding NJ-6 Representative Frank Pallone to your list.

NJ-6 is on our "Watch List" but right now it is getting a SAFE-D vote from all four of our election experts. If you see some real evidence that things are improving let us know.

54 posted on 03/31/2010 2:11:56 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: smokingfrog
Nice work, but you forgot to put some crosshairs on that chart.

You don't give up easy do you. In fact I'm not sure how to do it anyway.

55 posted on 03/31/2010 2:13:54 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: campaignPete R-CT
break the list up and do a thread just on the northeast ... maybe have 8 regions .... a different thread for each region ... all 50 states in one thread is overwhelming.

Yes it is all a bit overwhelming but running multiple threads would be a bit overwhelming too.

The reason we like a single chart (really two in this case) is because of the nature of political fund raising in the Internet era. These days you can contribute small amounts of money to any candidate you choose with a few clicks of your mouse and a handy credit card number. And for most of us giving money to our own Congressman/Congresswoman is a waste of time - most seats are SAFE-R or SAFE-D. So having a chart like we are developing, with click-able links to the websites of our favorite House candidates makes it very easy to spend your money (or your time) wisely in this election cycle. Why give it to the RNC when you can give it to some guy/gal in New York or Mississippi or wherever who needs to be put over the top to get us one more R vote in the House and one less D vote. That's what we are trying to do.

And also, by making sure that as many people as possible understand that putting their money or time into races that are either not-winnable or that are in the bag for the Republican is not a good strategy. The money needs to go to the competitive districts, particularly those where we have a strong conservative on the ticket. That's why we are limiting our list to "Vulnerable Democrats".

56 posted on 03/31/2010 2:32:37 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Haiku Guy
I like Anna Little.

We have Anna Little as the Freeper Endorsed candidate for NJ-6 on our Tier 2 Watch List. We need to see some movement in the polls that would show us that things are really looking better in NJ-6 than our "experts" are telling us.

57 posted on 03/31/2010 2:37:49 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: randita
AZ-5 looks to me like a race between David Schweikert and Susan Bitter Smith with Schweikert the likely winner. He looks to me to be the more conservative candidate as well.

Here is a link to a recent article on the AZ-5 race:

GOP forum introduces candidates to Ahwatukee voters

I'm going to move Schweikert to the head of the list with Susan Smith second. It would be nice to hear from an AZ Freeper who really knows what the real deal is and could give us "Freeper Endorsement" for AZ-5. But in any case it looks like we have the leading candidates on our list.

58 posted on 03/31/2010 3:11:50 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: campaignPete R-CT

There may be confusion about the meaning of “Freeper endorsed”. It doesn’t mean that the compilers of this Master List are assuming to speak for the entirety of FReeperdom. It just means that at least one FReeper has indicated through either a Reply or Private Mail that they prefer that candidate over the others or thinks that candidate has the best shot to win.

In many races, there are more than 3 (R) candidates and it’s one way we can separate the wheat from the chaff by moving the best ones into the 1-2-3 slots.

At least one FReeper recommended Herrmann. If you like someone else in that race, let me or InterceptPoint know.


59 posted on 03/31/2010 3:28:10 PM PDT by randita (Sarah Palin has the same computer that I have.)
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To: InterceptPoint
Even though my Representative, Tim Holden (17th-PA) voted ‘no’ on the bill, I believe he did so because Pelosi let him, to give him cover.

He supports the 0bamaCare abomination IMHO, and as such I will be working to replace him this November.

60 posted on 03/31/2010 3:31:53 PM PDT by airborne ("Peace, Love, Dope" has now become "Hope, Change, Obama" !!!)
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