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Blind Man's Bluff: The U.S. has no clue how Iran would respond to an attack.
The Woodward Report ^ | April 3, 2010 | BILAL Y. SAAB

Posted on 04/03/2010 4:45:51 PM PDT by honestabe010

Over the past three months, several prominent American think tanks and academic institutions have conducted simulation games about the Iranian crisis. Although these war games have nicely covered almost all facets of the problem, they have left one aspect mostly understudied: the nature of Iran's response to a U.S. or Israeli airstrike. I recently took part in two U.S. government-sponsored games in which the participants attempted to provide a modest assessment of that crucial issue.

War simulation games are certainly not a new invention in government practice. Indeed, the history of strategy and that of simulation are inseparable. Ever since men formed armies and thought of ways to outfox their enemies, simulation has been an integral part of military planning. The art of simulation was perfected during the Cold War, but once the Soviet Union fell, it experienced a lull. Today, as the United States faces the Iranian nuclear challenge, simulation is back in business. Over the past three months, several prominent American think tanks and academic institutions have conducted simulation games about the Iranian crisis. Although these war games have nicely covered almost all facets of the problem, they have left one aspect mostly understudied: the nature of Iran's response to a U.S. or Israeli airstrike. I recently took part in two U.S. government-sponsored games in which the participants attempted to provide a modest assessment of that crucial issue.

The simulations in which I participated began with the premise that the U.S. president, having exhausted all diplomatic strategies, had just made the tough decision to employ military force against Iran, with the chief objective of destroying or at least seriously damaging the country's key nuclear-power centers.

(Excerpt) Read more at thewoodwardreport.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: airstrikes; bhoiran; iran; iraniannukes; islam; maronite; military; muslim; proliferation; wot

1 posted on 04/03/2010 4:45:51 PM PDT by honestabe010
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To: honestabe010

Well, BILAL Y. SAAB, the USA knows good and well what Iran will eventually do if not attacked. And it won’t be worth the lower oil and foreign product prices in the meantime, Lebanese.


2 posted on 04/03/2010 4:49:44 PM PDT by familyop (cbt. engr. (cbt), NG, '89-' 96, Duncan Hunter or no-vote.)
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To: honestabe010

Well I guess it all depends on the extent and success of your “air strike.”

Rubble ain’t much trouble.


3 posted on 04/03/2010 4:50:32 PM PDT by Talisker (When you find a turtle on top of a fence post, you can be damn sure it didn't get there on it's own.)
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To: jhpigott

*ping*


4 posted on 04/03/2010 4:54:11 PM PDT by hennie pennie
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To: honestabe010
If USA would attack Iran, it would not be another Iraq or Afghanistan.

A lot of Iranians will support an US intervention, but the basic issue here is that Iran is THE Shia Islam nation of the world and Shia Islam can not exist as a real factor in global politics if America would crush it.

5 posted on 04/03/2010 5:00:17 PM PDT by WesternCulture
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To: honestabe010

I say there’s no way we attack Iran, not while led by Obama. No way. No how. This chore is going to be left to little old Israel, which Obama will then completely desert.

MM


6 posted on 04/03/2010 5:01:36 PM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: honestabe010
The U.S. has no clue how Iran would respond to an attack.

I'd say they'd probably explode and burn a lot.

7 posted on 04/03/2010 5:04:08 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Deathcare, a solution desperately looking for a problem.)
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To: honestabe010

They will put suicide bombers on commercial flights.
They will terrorize in a manner similar to sniper John Muhammed and target gas stations, parking lots, places people normally feel safe.
They will target malls in a manner similar to Mumbai and Beslan.
They will call for global retribution.
Obama, as a nominal muslim will call for enlightenment and freedom from tyranny and terror.
It’ll be over in under a month but it will be a long scary month. After it’s over and Barack Hussein O. convinces people an attack on the US is an attack on fellow muslims, it’ll all make sense in a manner to which the sudden ascension of Dwight D. Eisenhower made sense in another time of great peril.
That’s what I would be wargaming.


8 posted on 04/03/2010 5:08:25 PM PDT by kinghorse
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To: honestabe010
The assumption of this article is that the US will have a choice of whether to use military force against Iran. It\f Israel acts first, we are in it for the duration, no matter what. So, the response of Iran will only serve to determine whether the response to the response will be to turn Tehran into a horizontal glass factory.

Congressman Billybob

Don't Tread On Me (9/12 photo and poster)"

Are you serious? Are you serious?" \

9 posted on 04/03/2010 5:11:06 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.TheseAretheTimes.us)
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To: MississippiMan

“I say there’s no way we attack Iran, not while led by Obama. No way. No how”

- Well said,

Today, the “leaders” of the Western World is like a collective of selfrighteous idiots quarreling over how to run a swamp, unaware the Kraken is preying on them.

Obama has failed in becoming the leader of the Free World.


10 posted on 04/03/2010 5:16:59 PM PDT by WesternCulture
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To: honestabe010
another disastrous war in the region.

Another one? When was the last "disastrous" war in the region? Who was it a disaster for?

11 posted on 04/03/2010 5:23:42 PM PDT by arthurus ("If you don't believe in shooting abortionists, don't shoot an abortionist." -Ann C.)
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To: WesternCulture

Kraken? More like feeding each other to the ‘gator in hopes that he will be sated.


12 posted on 04/03/2010 5:24:02 PM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 436 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: WesternCulture

Make that ‘gators and they.

Better image match to the Kraken’s many tentacles.


13 posted on 04/03/2010 5:25:29 PM PDT by null and void (We are now in day 436 of our national holiday from reality. - 0bama really isn't one of US.)
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To: MississippiMan

Soetoro has possibly already warned Israel that we would shoot down IAF planes if Israel launches on Iran. Zbignew Brezhinzki made the suggestion that we should do that in the early days of the Soetoro administration. I don’t think he would have said that unless requested to do so.


14 posted on 04/03/2010 5:28:03 PM PDT by arthurus ("If you don't believe in shooting abortionists, don't shoot an abortionist." -Ann C.)
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To: honestabe010

Very discouraging.


15 posted on 04/03/2010 5:35:16 PM PDT by onedoug
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To: Talisker
Close to what I had planned to say:

Several hundred square miles of green glass can't have much of a response...

16 posted on 04/03/2010 5:37:57 PM PDT by TXnMA (D'Aleo re Hansen's "GISS" temperature database: "Non Gradus Anus Rodentum!")
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To: honestabe010

Let’s find out...


17 posted on 04/03/2010 5:44:09 PM PDT by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: WesternCulture
Obama has failed in becoming the leader of the Free World.

Being a Muslim naturally inhibits his ability to lead the Free World.

18 posted on 04/03/2010 5:46:22 PM PDT by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: honestabe010

I doubt we could conquer Iran by a ground invasion. It would have to be through Air Power. Iran is not flat as was Iraq.


19 posted on 04/03/2010 5:46:26 PM PDT by AEMILIUS PAULUS (It is a shame that when these people give a riot)
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To: honestabe010

Fold like a cheap suit. They need terrorism as they have no guts to face war.


20 posted on 04/03/2010 6:02:02 PM PDT by CodeToad
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

21 posted on 04/03/2010 6:20:51 PM PDT by SJackson (Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel and it must remain undivided, Barack Hussein Obama)
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To: WesternCulture

>Obama has failed in becoming the leader of the Free World.<

.
You must have leadership qualities to become one.


22 posted on 04/03/2010 6:30:12 PM PDT by 353FMG (What else can Islam possibly contribute to America other than its destruction?)
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To: honestabe010

How do airstrikes solve anything??

You just piss off the Iranian people, turn them against your country (they’re actually pro-US right now) while rallying them around theirs, give the Iranian government a legitimate excuse for arming - “Hey, there’s countries out there trying to destroy us” - while it gets international sympathy.

And for what? Temporarily delaying the inevitable? Besides, Pakistan would probably give them some of their nukes, either outright or clandestinely.

Airstrikes solve nothing, and create a whole new mess of problems in an astonishingly short time. So why is this constantly brought up as a serious option?? No one in the Pentagon with half a brain is even considering it! No way the US bombs Iran, you can put Vegas money on it.


23 posted on 04/03/2010 6:53:24 PM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: 353FMG

“You must have leadership qualities to become one.”

- Yes, I’m the new Obama.


24 posted on 04/03/2010 6:55:44 PM PDT by WesternCulture
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To: Congressman Billybob

Obama’s recent treatment of Israel leads me to believe that If Israel were to launch an attack on Iran, Obama would immediately know about it from US intelligence assets, and WOULD warn Iran. The result would be the devastation of Israeli air assets, which would leave them open to attack and total destruction.

And Obama would believe that to be a positive development!


25 posted on 04/03/2010 7:07:20 PM PDT by MainFrame65 (The US Senate: World's greatest PREVARICATIVE body!.)
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To: TXnMA

ooh sparkly and shiny


26 posted on 04/03/2010 7:07:57 PM PDT by Waverunner ( "Think for yourselves and let others enjoy the privilege to do so too." Voltaire)
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To: arthurus
I believe Resident Soetoro would issue such an order.
27 posted on 04/03/2010 7:44:05 PM PDT by ASA Vet (Iran should have ceased to exist Nov 5, 1979, but we had no president then either.)
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To: honestabe010
"The U.S. has no clue how Iran would respond to an attack."

That is why you do the following:

Decapitate the leadership.

Launch massive EMP strike.

Destroy all missile sites.

Destroy nukes sites with commando's and missile strikes.

28 posted on 04/03/2010 8:17:55 PM PDT by blasater1960 ( Dt 30, Ps 111, The Torah is perfect, attainable, now and forever)
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To: honestabe010

Japan responded very quickly after Hiroshima.

Iranians need to understand that unless they rid themselves of their evil leadership, the US will do it for them, but with (heaven forbid) collateral devastation.

If the Iranian public wants nuclear energy, they’ll get it - once they play by the rules of the rest of the world.

If the mullahs want nuclear domination, then crush them back to before the stone age.


29 posted on 04/03/2010 9:14:06 PM PDT by Noob1999 (LOOSE LIPS, SINK SHIPS)
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; ...

30 posted on 04/03/2010 9:31:00 PM PDT by SunkenCiv ("Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others." -- Otto von Bismarck)
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To: TXnMA

“Several hundred square miles of green glass can’t have much of a response... “

God, I hope it doesn’t come to that. But as a young child who curiously examined some of that stuff at the Trinity test site, I tend to agree with you.


31 posted on 04/03/2010 9:54:21 PM PDT by EEDUDE
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To: canuck_conservative

Why would Sunni Pakistan give nuclear weapons to Shia Iran?


32 posted on 04/03/2010 10:18:07 PM PDT by rmlew (There is no such thing as a Blue Dog Democrat; just liberals who lie.)
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To: rmlew

Several ways it could happen. To start, recognize that Pakistan’s “friendliness” to the West is questionable, at best.

So even if the government doesn’t do it itself, there are many anti-American-sympathetic individuals in the nuclear establishment and military (remember the ISI?) who could hand over helpful info or technology, or even defect.

An military attack on a country has a surprising power to suddenly unite former rivals and completely change the picture. That’s why I say an American attack on Iran is stupid, based on the strategic fundamentals.


33 posted on 04/04/2010 5:07:50 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: MississippiMan

I agree with you. Fourth scenario; the US roles over and dies.


34 posted on 04/04/2010 7:15:48 AM PDT by ops33 (Senior Master Sergeant, USAF (Retired))
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To: blasater1960

Whether we hit them or Israel does, we will get blamed. They WILL seek revenge.

I am concerned that Iran, which has done very well in assymetrical warfare against us (mainly via a wide network of hard-to-identify proxies) will respond with the ultimate in assymetrical strikes against us - an EMP strike against at least the East coast, perhaps the entire country. They can’t take us on directly and hope to win, and such would violate Sun Tzu’s axiom to never attack an enemy’s strength - and their own methods of several decades. Given their limited capabilities, that’s the logical choice. Further, it matches their trash-talk about dealing us a blow from which we won’t recover - if we get EMP’d, 75%of us will be dead within a year (read “One Second After” if you have doubts). Even if we somehow identify who did it and turn their entire country into a green glass-covered radioactive parking lot, such wouldn’t save us.

By the way, someday I believe that they’ll attempt this against us, Israel, Europe, the Russkies, China and Japan. What better way to clear the chessboard and make yourself the one-eyed in the land of the blind? Best, in my view, to stop them from doing so at a time of their choosing, and for us to choose both the time and place of the battle.

Either way, we need to implement your solution, and the sooner the better. Literally every day we move closer to these goat phockers doing something completely nuts, as their capabilities grow daily.


35 posted on 04/04/2010 8:16:27 AM PDT by Ancesthntr (Tyrant: "Spartans, lay down your weapons." Free man: "Persian, come and get them!")
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To: WesternCulture
Today, the “leaders” of the Western World is like a collective of selfrighteous idiots quarreling over how to run a swamp, unaware the Kraken is preying on them.

That's a fitting analogy, and a scary one to watch. Looks to me like Netanyahu is the only leader on the planet who really gets it, and he's essentially a global pariah because anti-Semitism has so rapidly regrown itself around the world.

Ahmadinejad fervently believes that it's his holy mission to pave the way for the Islamic messiah, the 12th imam. And he believes the way to do it is to annihilate Christians and Jews. This little nutjob isn't pursuing nukes to increase political clout; when he gets them, he'll USE them.

For Israel, it's an existential threat. As for us, it might not completely wipe out the country, but a nuke detonated a hundred miles or so above the middle of the country will cause an EMP that instantly takes most of the country back to 19th-century technology. I think we could easily lose a third of our population from a single EMP attack. We MIGHT survive as a viable nation, but only as a shadow of its former self. The really scary thing? Iran has practiced launching missiles from container ships. I would imagine, what, dozens of them approach our country every day? Park one a hundred miles off the east coat and let loose the missile.

2008 Study Regarding EMP Attack

MM (in TX)

36 posted on 04/04/2010 9:51:29 AM PDT by MississippiMan (http://gogmagogblog.wordpress.com/)
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To: canuck_conservative
None of the rulers of nations around Iran want them to have nuclear weapons. There is a Sunni bomb, they don't want a Shia bomb. Certain radicals may, but the regimes don't.
Given the inability of the IRanina people to overthrow their regime,, the choice is an angy nuclear Iran or an angry non-nuclear Iran.
37 posted on 04/04/2010 12:46:43 PM PDT by rmlew (There is no such thing as a Blue Dog Democrat; just liberals who lie.)
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