Skip to comments.Australian Port Congestion Gives Clues To A Staggering Surge In Demand From Japan, Korea, And China
Posted on 04/06/2010 5:24:52 AM PDT by blam
Australian Port Congestion Gives Clues To A Staggering Surge In Demand From Japan, Korea, And China
Vincent Fernando, CFA
Apr. 6, 2010, 7:57 AM
Despite recent infrastructure expansions, Australian ports have been clobbered by an enormous rebound in demand for coal from Korea, Japan, and most notably... China.
Thanks to the added disruptive effects of a recent cyclone, Australian coal terminals are now experiencing even more congestion than they experienced during pre-crisis boom times when the world experienced a commodities super spike. The map below shows a recent snapshot of the area around Hay Point, Australia.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
you are correct
Global growth has returned, and it’s locus is in east asia.
I thought ‘locus’ only came every seven years.
you’ve been smokin that locus weed?
Obama to form ‘locus’ group to ‘look at’ the situation.
It’s Asia, specifically China, and it’s booming. Over here (I’m in China right now) the economy is roaring full-steam ahead; internal consumption is taking off. Sales of consumer goods is going well, clothing, even housing.
I know there has been a lot of predictions of an impending real estate bust in China, but it’s not going to happen for one very important reason: no leverage. The Chinese banking regulations are now requiring 40% down on a mortgage - yes, 40%! And still about half of all purchases across the nation (including Shanghai and Shenzhen, two very expensive cities) see people buying their apartment or house outright with cash.
There really isn’t a bubble in China, nor most of Asia. They’re booming internally as their middle class is starting to take off, and drive internal consumption and demand. The SE Asian economies of Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia are all accelerating very healthily, and China and Japan have a massive surplus of cash. Add in all of Asia has a huge savings/investment mentality to their cultures and you have a perfect wave of growing economies.
Australia’s benefiting by proximity to this location, and no trade barriers to most of Asia. Open trade, close by, easy to work with - perfect setup to become a big-time supplier of natural resources to Asia.
Meanwhile, we sit on hundreds of years of oil in our shale deposits, and we refuse to sell or even mine our low-sulfur coal. And we’re looking to start more trade wars with China and South Korea over steel and other basic materials...
Swiftly rising oil, coal and steel prices are the immediate symptoms.
I don’t think it’s a bubble, it’s simply the signs of the big growth of the middle class. A bubble would be spending or investment beyond the growth of sustainable consumption; that’s not what is happening.
When you have 200 million people moving from the lower classes into middle class, and now spending the wealth they have created, and you have another 100-200 million coming along behind them, I think it’s more a sign of inflation and simple growth of an economy. The infrastructure and steel aren’t being hoarded or going unused; add in the continuity of the savings percentage of the typical Chinese family and it’s not their long-term wealth being converted, it’s the new wealth.
This is more like the US boom in the 1960s, but the Chinese are doing whatever they can to slow it down and avoid the stagflation that hit in the 1970s.
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