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Why we should worry about political violence
LA Times ^ | 4-13-10 | Gregory Rodriguez

Posted on 04/15/2010 6:30:21 AM PDT by Til I am the last man standing

Does this suggest that Barack Obama's election will cause a shift in rates of violence? Absolutely. According to Roth, FBI data released in December bear that out. In the first six months of 2009, urban areas that Obama carried saw the steepest drop in the homicide rate since the mid-1990s.

During that period, the states with the largest percentage of counties that voted more heavily Republican in 2008 than they did in 2004 saw an 11% rise in homicide in cities of over 100,000 residents.

I asked Roth to speculate on what could happen if the right continued its violent rhetoric and didn't gain seats in November or 2012. He suggested looking back at the 1960s and 1970s, when left-wing activists were preaching their own disdain for government. As trust of government evaporated, the murder rate doubled.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: barakobama; democrat; republican; violence
Appeared in the DMN today. Please read the article.
1 posted on 04/15/2010 6:30:22 AM PDT by Til I am the last man standing
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To: Til I am the last man standing

President Obama Signs Executive Order Establishing Council of Governors
Monday, 11 January 2010 19:07 Press Release Latest National News
12766
·
· Washington, D.C.—(ENEWSPF)—January 11, 2010. The President today signed an Executive Order establishing a Council of Governors to strengthen further the partnership between the Federal Government and State Governments to protect our Nation against all types of hazards. When appointed, the Council will be reviewing such matters as involving the National Guard of the various States; homeland defence; civil support; synchronization and integration of State and Federal military activities in the United States; and other matters of mutual interest pertaining to National Guard, homeland defence, and civil support activities.

The bipartisan Council will be composed of Ten State Governors who will be selected by the President to serve two year terms. In selecting the Governors to the Council, the White House will solicit input from Governors and Governors’ associations. Once chosen, the Council will have no more than five members from the same party and represent the Nation as a whole.

Federal members of the Council include the Secretary of Defence, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism, the Assistant to the President for Intergovernmental Affairs and Public Engagement, the Assistant Secretary of Defence for Homeland Defence and Americas’ Security Affairs, the U.S. Northern Command Commander, the Commandant of the Coast Guard, and the Chief of the National Guard Bureau.


2 posted on 04/15/2010 6:32:36 AM PDT by KeyLargo
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To: Til I am the last man standing

Don’t change the original headline


3 posted on 04/15/2010 6:33:41 AM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: Til I am the last man standing

Yup, those dastardly right wingers dressed up like Black Panthers and disrupted that election site in “08.

And of course, the Obamaloon cabinet of felons chose not to prosecute.

Barf.

Libs can be so consummately stupid.


4 posted on 04/15/2010 6:33:42 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: Til I am the last man standing

“I asked Roth to speculate on what could happen if the right continued its violent rhetoric and didn’t gain seats in November or 2012. He suggested looking back at the 1960s and 1970s, when left-wing activists were preaching their own disdain for government. As trust of government evaporated, the murder rate doubled.”

Murder rates have a lot more to do with general crime waves and economic conditions than politics.


5 posted on 04/15/2010 6:33:51 AM PDT by Eyes Unclouded ("The word bipartisan means some larger-than-usual deception is being carried out." -George Carlin)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

I wouldn’t be surprised if the only reason the numbers are down is some new method of counting. It works for them in unemployment (since Clinton changed it).


6 posted on 04/15/2010 6:34:26 AM PDT by Ingtar (Congress: proof that Entropy trumps Evolution)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

Why we should worry about political violence (when it is directed at the Left, but we will ignore any directed at the right).


7 posted on 04/15/2010 6:34:29 AM PDT by Lazamataz ("We beat the Soviet Union. Then we became them." -- Lazamataz, 2005)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

Kenneth Gladney, New Orleans... the left is the only side being violent


8 posted on 04/15/2010 6:34:40 AM PDT by GeronL (Entitlement Zombies will become real zombies when the money runs out)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

I hate Obama and that means I want to go murder someone? Sorry, not buying it.


9 posted on 04/15/2010 6:34:44 AM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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To: Til I am the last man standing

Lott pulled the stuffing out of this loon a while back ...


10 posted on 04/15/2010 6:35:26 AM PDT by Tarpon ( ...Rude crude socialist Obama depends on ignorance to force his will on people)
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To: Til I am the last man standing
During that period, the states with the largest percentage of counties that voted more heavily Republican in 2008 than they did in 2004 saw an 11% rise in homicide in cities of over 100,000 residents.

Just how far do you have to stretch to make a point before you look ridiculous?

The fact that the state may have voted R has little to do with how the urban area voted.

11 posted on 04/15/2010 6:35:59 AM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: Eyes Unclouded

A good reason to throw out the Rats.


12 posted on 04/15/2010 6:37:01 AM PDT by screaminsunshine (i)
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To: Til I am the last man standing
Here is another take on Professor Roth and his subjective statistics
13 posted on 04/15/2010 6:38:09 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Til I am the last man standing
During that period, the states with the largest percentage of counties that voted more heavily Republican in 2008 than they did in 2004 saw an 11% rise in homicide in cities of over 100,000 residents.

Data mining. "Find me a place where homicides went up and we will figure out how to relate that to Republicans."

14 posted on 04/15/2010 6:38:34 AM PDT by CPOSharky (What outrage will the administration foist upon We the People that will be the last straw?)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

No thanks. I don’t believe anything published in the L.A. Times.


15 posted on 04/15/2010 6:38:37 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (Support our troops....and vote out the RINOS!)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

16 posted on 04/15/2010 6:40:16 AM PDT by KeyLargo
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To: Til I am the last man standing

TITLE: “Why we should worry about political violence”

Any FReeper worth their salt can look at the source and the title and then do the math. The whole article is a bunch of crap.

This guy, Roth, is an idiot and making up numbers in advance of supporting martial law. He’s also pimping his book, which probably sucks.

Who would enforce martial law? How will it be paid for? What states will oppose it?

Obama would do better to simply fix the elections than to declare martial law after the fact ~ and Iwouldn’t put it past him either.

Happy Tax Day!


17 posted on 04/15/2010 6:45:19 AM PDT by incredulous joe ("Live Free or Fight!!")
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To: Til I am the last man standing

I find it rather glaring that the statistics ignore exactly WHO is committing these crimes. It could very well be that Obama voters in these republican areas ARE the ones committing these crimes. My guess is that since this was not mentioned in the article, it is probably exactly what is going on.


18 posted on 04/15/2010 6:45:43 AM PDT by marstegreg
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To: Ingtar

“I wouldn’t be surprised if the only reason the numbers are down,...

This is actually how my states current Governor drove down murder rates when he was the Mayor of Baltimore. He reclassified what “murder” was.

Roth is a moron. Anyone that would buy into this theory is a willing tool.


19 posted on 04/15/2010 6:47:57 AM PDT by incredulous joe ("Live Free or Fight!!")
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To: Til I am the last man standing

LA Times,,,source .

Provda on the Pacific .


20 posted on 04/15/2010 6:48:55 AM PDT by lionheart 247365 (-:{ GLEN BECK is 0bama's TRANSPARENCY CZAR }:-)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

“Gregory Rodriguez” LA Times.

-

Feh.

The drop in urban violence is due in large part, to the number of often-violent illegals who have - given the collapsing US economy gone home.

Because they cannot find work standing on the street next to Home Depot anymore.

Mr. Rodriguez.


21 posted on 04/15/2010 6:52:32 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (2012: Repeal it all... All of it!)
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To: Til I am the last man standing
"I just witnessed a really amazing seminar by Randolph Roth entitled 'American Homicide.'

He has tried to put together homicide data for the United States over the last couple hundred years from newspaper reports and coroner reports. From this he makes claims that murder rates were basically flat from 1914 to 1933 and that prohibition had no impact on murder rates.

I really wish that I could post a copy of the figure that Roth presented. The fact that murder rates seem to have risen in individual states after they adopted prohibition doesn't seem to matter, that murder rates fell dramatically as soon as prohibition ended to the month in 1933 doesn't matter.

The more amazing thing is how he got his data together. When someone asked him about the subjectiveness of determining what is murder, Roth responded that it is extremely subjective: 'Tell me what murder rate you want and I can get you that murder rate.'

In most fields you want to have some separation between those who put the data together and those who use it.:

John Lott

22 posted on 04/15/2010 6:57:21 AM PDT by Madame Dufarge
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To: kabar

Whoops, I was busily formatting and missed yours...:-)


23 posted on 04/15/2010 7:00:24 AM PDT by Madame Dufarge
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To: Til I am the last man standing

The sun usually rises if the cock crows.


24 posted on 04/15/2010 7:14:59 AM PDT by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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To: Til I am the last man standing
the states with the largest percentage of counties that voted more heavily Republican in 2008 than they did in 2004 saw an 11% rise in homicide in cities of over 100,000 residents.

Notice how this is worded. They try to suggest that it's republicans going around killing people. Pure hogwash!

25 posted on 04/15/2010 7:36:12 AM PDT by lwd
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To: Til I am the last man standing

Someone REALLY needs to write a new playbook for the left. At least a new chapter or two.


26 posted on 04/15/2010 7:41:25 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
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To: Til I am the last man standing

Although this author is likely an annoying liberal, his point is valid. However, I would not blame individual Republicans for creating the conditions conducive to violence, I place the blame squarely on the 0bama regime and other the other Dims. In the 1960s, African Americans were right to rail against government institutions that supported segregation. Today, conservatives are against the 0bama regime and Dim pols for confiscatory tax policies that amount to involuntary servitude.
The regime raises taxes and reduces deductions. The regime mandates federally qualified health insurance. The regime hires more IRS agents. The typical conservative grumbles over the higher taxes and loss of liberty. Some are more unfortunate: they lose their job, their house, their dignity. Perhaps a divorce ensues and in some cases violence is the result. Perhaps the tax man cometh with promises of penalties and jail time. It’s easy to see how violence and anti-government violence could increase in this milieu.


27 posted on 04/15/2010 7:55:54 AM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

28 posted on 04/15/2010 7:58:51 AM PDT by WOBBLY BOB ("The welfare of humanity is always the alibi of tyrants"-Albert Camus)
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To: Til I am the last man standing
It sounds like junk science use of statistics. First is the correlation between violence and democrats alleged in the 1960s. The violence happened in urban areas that were voting democrat. Both were true but one had no effect on the other.

I'd like to see the 2009 data for the 11% increase in violent crime in counties that voted republican. The first reason I'd like to see it is because I have the actual F.B.I. tables for the first half of 2009 right here, handy. They divided the nation into four districts and gave the percent change for those districts in nine categories of violent crime. VIOLENT CRIME WAS DOWN IN EVERY CATEGORY.

Gross percent change:
Northeast: -3.2%
Midwest: -3.4%
South: -6.1%
West: -3.3%
Total: -4.4%

Now here is the warning from the F.B.I. on the 2009 Uniform Crime Report front page: (in the highlighted section under Please Note:)
Individuals using these tabulations are cautioned against drawing conclusions by making direct comparisons between cities. Comparisons lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting communities and their residents. Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the range of unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction.

Besides that, this is what's called a relative risk calculation. Relative risks under two, and often under three, are considered meaningless. This relative risk is .11, well under the threshold for any significance to be established. Mr. Rodriguez is blowing smoke.

29 posted on 04/15/2010 8:01:37 AM PDT by sig226 (Mourn this day, the death of a great republic. March 21, 2010)
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To: Til I am the last man standing

This has more to do with obama’s followers believing they have the right to redistribte the wealth themselves. If it’s OK for obama and his thugs to steal and be the cause of deaths(death panels) , then it’s a “go” for them to do the same.


30 posted on 04/15/2010 8:24:22 AM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like what you say))
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To: CPOSharky
During that period, the states with the largest percentage of counties that voted more heavily Republican in 2008 than they did in 2004 saw an 11% rise in homicide in cities of over 100,000 residents.

If I am reading that correctly, that would include places like Camden, Trenton, Newark, and Jersey City in NJ.

Talk about convoluted reasoning!
31 posted on 04/15/2010 11:06:11 AM PDT by algernonpj (He who pays the piper . . .)
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