All of that is nonsense. The employment picture hasn’t changed much at all in the past six months despite all of the media spin. Initial jobless claims have been flat since the end of October, as this chart from Uncommon Misperceptions shows:
Posted on 04/17/2010 11:39:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
For the past several months, the media has tried helping the White House spin unemployment numbers. Whenever initial jobless claims go down, media analysts hail it as a sure sign that the “recovery” is gaining strength. When initial claims rise, it’s an “unexpected” sign that the recovery may take a while longer to show some effects.
All of that is nonsense. The employment picture hasn’t changed much at all in the past six months despite all of the media spin. Initial jobless claims have been flat since the end of October, as this chart from Uncommon Misperceptions shows:
Actually, the trend line shows a slight average increase over that period. Prior to this, of course, the numbers had been far worse, peaking at over 700,000 initial claims per week. But that was an obvious disaster unfolding, one that had already started to abate before the first dollars of the Democratic stimulus package got spent.
UM calls the media treatment of this “their typical baby duck analysis”:
The data are oscillating about a slowly increasing value, indicating that, if anything, unemployment claims are increasing. That means that for the past 5 1/2 months, every time the administration has told us that the unemployment situation is slowly recovering, and that the data show “the right trend,” they have been absolutely mistaken.
The media has been doing their typical baby duck analysis: every day is a brand new day, every unemployment claims report is the first one they’ve ever seen. So we get headlines like, “job situation improving” when the number of claims drops, and “unexpected increase” when the number rises.
We’re not seeing any improvement at all after the loss of so many jobs in the crisis period. We’re seeing stagnation at high levels of unemployment, and despite a massive hiring binge at the Census Bureau, the numbers aren’t improving in the private sector at all. Maybe the media analysts should get their ducks in a row and start reporting on reality.
Is everyone expecting the 2010 democrat campaign theme song to be “Tomorrow” from Annie?
Cut the Government budget in half so small companies can grow and hire enough people to pay the taxes that service the debt.
Well Clinton’s theme was Fleetwood Mac’s “Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow”.
There is over 12% unemployment in California.
Excellent analysis!
Which means the real unemployment in California ( based on U6 estimation is close to 20% ). That’s ONE in FIVE people on the streets looking for work.
Paraphrasing FDR:
The only thing we have to fear, is Obama himself.
We have a huge drag on the economy with both citizens and resident collecting help.
On the other hand you have all those illegals taking jobs from Americans that may not show up if the employer is paying them under the table.
Looks like local variations for a few weeks at a time. But the overall trend is still up. That is, increasing unemployment. With obama/Reid/Pelosi-care looming over corporations of all sizes... With the socialists and fascists still in power in DC, is there really anything “unexpected” about increasing unemployment?
Larry Kudlow of CNBC is a conservative who believes the economy is picking up steam and jobs will start to pick up later this year.
Today however, he makes a caveat — he isn’t sure if this will be sustained next year when the Bush tax cuts expire, the death tax is restored and a whole host of tax increases to support Obama’s spending for Healthcare and others start to kick in.
Where are the jobs? Show me the jobs. What is in the wings that will create new ‘meaningful’ jobs? Not government parasite jobs. Too many rules, laws and regulations in place that restrict the private sector from doing it’s job of starting new businesses and related job growth.
Actually it is 12.6%.
However job creation last month was 4,200 jobs. How many are green jobs, Arnold? Oh, NONE!
Cali needs ten times that number of new jobs each month for 5 years to get under 8%.
If only we would repeal Prop 13 and tax everything that moves except illegals, life would be good again.
Joke.
I’m thinking that “The Morning After” is probably more appropriate.
Looking at some raw economic numbers, the economy is about ready to take off. In fact, it has. The GDP boomed at the end of last year, and economic statistics suggest that the boom should be just about ready to sweep into the “felt” areas of the economy, such as unemployment, wages, tax receipts, etc.
BUT
Such is just looking at data outside of context. Last quarter, the stimulus finally reached its peak. If the stimulus is akin to hitting the accelerator, we’re now taking our foot OFF the gas. Tax hikes, increasing bond rates, and natural-resources inflation are likely to counteract much of the gathering momentum.
Businessmen know this. Profits are soaring, but largely due to the absence of investment. And the availability of cheap money may well dry up as we enter a second round of real-estate devaluation. Prognosis: No “second plunge,” but quite possibly an upcoming “lost decade.”
NSS.....sheesh
When 20% of the government is unemployed, the numbers will be good.
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