Posted on 04/24/2010 8:20:10 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
IMPORTANT - Just a heads up that there are two very important Special Elections coming up. One in HI-1 where Charles Djou is either tied or leading in the polls in a very Dem District. The second is PA-12 where Tim Burns is also leading the Dem Critz in the polls.
The HI-1 Special Election is May 22.
The PA-12 Special Election is May 18
If you live in those districts you need to get out and vote. If you can lend a hand in any way to help these candidates we urge you to do so.
Changes to the Master List since the April 16th Update:
| Dem Primary Winner | Republican Incumbent or Republican Challengers | |||||||||||
| District | Or Incumbent | R-Seats | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | |||
| AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Rick Barber | Martha Roby | Stephanie Bell | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | ||
| AR | 1 | Open D (Marion Berry) | Rick Crawford | Princella Smith | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | |||
| AR | 2 | Open D (Vic Snyder) | Tim Griffin | Scott Wallace | AR | 18-May | Leans R | AR | 2 | |||
| AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | ||
| AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | ||
| AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Jesse Kelly | Jonathan Paton | Andy Goss | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | ||
| CA | 3 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | |||
| CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | David Harmer | Tony Amador | Brad Goehring | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | ||
| CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Van Tran | Katherine Smith | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | |||
| CO | 3 | John Salazar | Scott Tipton | Bob McConnell | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | |||
| CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Cory Gardner | Tom Lucero | Dean Madere | CO | 10-Aug | Toss-Up | CO | 4 | ||
| CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Tom Herrmann | Dan Debicella | Rob Merkle | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | ||
| CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Sam Caligiuri | Justin Bernier | Mark Greenberg | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | ||
| DE | AL | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | ||
| FL | 2 | Alan Boyd | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Likely D | FL | 2 | ||
| FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Dan Fanelli | Todd Long | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | ||
| FL | 12 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Dennis Ross | Baxter Troutman | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | FL | 12 | ||
| FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Likely D | FL | 22 | ||||
| FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Ed Dedelow | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | ||
| FL | 25 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | David Rivera | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 25 | |||
| GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Mac Collins | Valerie Meyers | Angela Hicks | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | ||
| HI | 1 | Open D | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Leans D | HI | 1 | ||||
| HI | 1 | Special Election (D) | Charles Djou | HI | 22-May | HI | 1 | |||||
| IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Brad Zaun | Pat Bertroche | Jim Gibbons | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | ||
| ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Michael Chadwick | Raul Labrador | Vaughn Ward | ID | 25-May | Toss-Up | ID | 1 | ||
| IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | ||||
| IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | |||
| IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 11 | ||||
| IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Leans D | IL | 14 | ||||
| IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Likely D | IN | 2 | ||||
| IN | 8 | Open D (Brad Ellsworth) | John Lee Smith | John Snyder Jr. | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | ||
| IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Mike Sodrel | Todd Young | Travis Hankins | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | ||
| KS | 3 | Open D (Dennis Moore) | Patricia Lightner | Kevin Yoder | KS | 3-Aug | Leans R | KS | 3 | |||
| LA | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | |||
| LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Nickie Monica | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Leans R | LA | 3 | ||
| MA | 10 | Open D (Bill Delahunt) | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | MA | 10 | ||
| MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | MD | 1 | ||
| MI | 1 | Open D (Stupak) | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Tom Stillings | Jason Allen | MI | 3-Aug | Leans D | MI | 1 | ||
| MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Tim Walberg | Brian Rooney | Mike Stahly | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | ||
| MI | 9 | Gary Peters | "Rocky" Raczowski | Paul Welday | Gene Goodman | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | ||
| MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Randy Demmer | Jim Hagedom | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | |||
| MN | 6 | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | |||
| MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Vicky Hartzler | Bill Stouffer | Art Madden | MO | 3-Aug | Likely D | MO | 4 | ||
| MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Alan Nunnelee | Angela McGlowan | Henry Ross | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | ||
| NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Tim D’Annunzio | Harold Jordan | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Likely D | NC | 8 | ||
| ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Rick Berg | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | |||||
| NE | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | |||
| NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Frank Guinta | Bob Bestani | Rich Ashooh | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | ||
| NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Jennifer Horn | Bob Giuda | Charlie Bass | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | ||
| NJ | 3 | John Adler | Jon Runyan | Joseph Rullo | Maurice Hill | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | ||
| NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Jon Barela | Alan Woodruff | Jerry Scott | NM | 1-Jun | Likely D | NM | 1 | ||
| NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | ||||
| NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Dr. Joe Heck | Ed Bridges | Brad Leutwyler | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | ||
| NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Gary Berntsen | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | ||
| NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | |||
| NY | 19 | John Hall | Thomas DeChiaro | Nan Hayworth | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | |||
| NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 20 | ||||
| NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | |||
| NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Richard Hanna | Logan Bell | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | |||
| NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Mark Bitz | Ann Marie Buerkle | David Gay | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | ||
| NY | 29 | Open D (Eric Massa) | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | ||
| OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | ||||
| OH | 2 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Likely R | OH | 2 | |||
| OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Tom Ganley | Frank Chestney | Bill Haney | OH | 4-May | Likely D | OH | 13 | ||
| OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Steve Stivers | John Adams | OH | 4-May | Toss-Up | OH | 15 | |||
| OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Jim Renacci | Matt Miller | H. Doyle Smith | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 16 | ||
| OH | 18 | Zach Space | Bob Gibbs | Jeanette Moll | Dave Daubenmire | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | ||
| PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Ed Franz | Paul Huber | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 3 | ||
| PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Mary Beth Buchanan | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 4 | |||
| PA | 6 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | |||
| PA | 7 | Open D (Sestak) | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | ||||
| PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Mike Fitzpatrick | Gloria Carlineo | Ira Hoffman | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | ||
| PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Tom Marino | David Madeira | Malcolm Derk | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | ||
| PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Lou Barletta | Chris Paige | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 11 | |||
| PA | 12 | Special Election Critz (D) | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | PA | 12 | |||||
| PA | 12 | Open D (John Murtha) | Bill Russell | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 12 | |||
| PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Frank Ryan | Josh First | Dave Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | ||
| SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Mick Mulvaney | Albert Spencer | SC | 8-Jun | Leans D | SC | 5 | |||
| SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Chris Nelson | Blake Curd | SD | 8-Jun | Leans D | SD | AL | |||
| TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Jack Bailey | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | Kent Greenough | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | ||
| TN | 6 | Open D (Bart Gordon) | Jim Tracy | Diane Black | Lou Ann Zelenik | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | ||
| TN | 8 | Open D (John Tanner) | Stephen Fincher | George Finn | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | |||
| TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Leans D | TX | 17 | ||||
| TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | ||||
| VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Ben Loyola | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | |||
| VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Robert Hurt | Ken Boyd | Virgil Goode (?) | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | ||
| VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Morgan Griffith | Adam Light | Dave Moore | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | ||
| VA | 11 | Gerald Connelly | Keith Fimian | Pat Herrity | Tim Hugo | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | ||
| WA | 3 | Open D (Brian Baird) | David Castillo | Jaime Herrera | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | ||
| WA | 8 | Dem Primary Winner | Open R | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | |||
| WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | Marc Savard | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | ||
| WV | 1 | Alan Mollohan | David B. McKinley | Sarah Minear | Mac Warner | WV | 11-May | Leans D | WV | 1 | ||
| Code | Color Code Indicates | |||||||||||
| New Entry or Major Change | Average | Leans D | -0.585 | |||||||||
| Upcoming Primary or Runoff | ||||||||||||
| Completed Primary | ||||||||||||
| Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | ||||||||||||
| Special Election | ||||||||||||
| Updated | 24-Apr-10 | |||||||||||
Pinging the Key House Races Ping List with the 24 April Update.
This is THE list!!! Thanks...
I got no answer so about Tuesday of this week I called his Waco office number, given on his Homepage. A FAX machine answered so I called the Bryan office and got an answering machine where I left a detailed message, telling him I am in a safe Republican district and offering help. NOTHING!
Thursday I get an email asking for a contribution!!
Today (Friday 23rd)I called Waco again, FAX machine. I called Bryan and got the same answering machine.
I emailed him today.
My hope of beating Chet Edwards is sinking fast.
A note to the Key House Races Ping List:
We’re looking for a few people who would be willing to search a couple of news sources (specific ones would be assigned) each morning and evening and gather news articles relating to the election in general and House races in p articular to be linked on Key House Races. If you would do this, freepmail randita. Thanks.
“We’ve added Rothenberger to our list of “Expert Election Evaluators”.”
Don’t you mean Stuart Rothenberg? He, along with Charlie Cook, are two of the best political prognosticators in the business.
We have to keep our strength. The more congress and Obama piss us off the more the voting public will vote them out. I HOPE!
It’s a shame that Fitzpatrick is the best we can do in the 8th (PA). When asked if he would repeal healthcare, he hedged and pretty much gave the Dem talking points of saving the “good stuff”.
Please check post 5. It would be a good fit for what you are already doing in Texas.
No worries, thank you for the list, I’m sure it took a lot of time to research and build. Most appreciated.
Thanks for the ping!
How can ND and SD have 2 RAT house members and 3/4 RAT senators.
These 2 states are the 2 worst in the union. They give us 6 for the POTUS every election but 5/6 socialist rats for congress.
WHY? What is wrong with these people.
With the house districts gerrymandered in 2000 there are more conservative districts. If we can not win back the house when all members are up in this political environment we are doomed. But with only a few posts here maybe the country fell back asleep after the death care vote
We've been posting our list once a week for over a month and it is pretty stable now so there is not a lot to comment on that hasn't been said. On those 5 or 6 posts we have had well over 10,000 views and a very healthy posting response. So the word is getting out.
Keep the faith. As the election warms up and the polls start rolling in and the "experts" wake up and start smelling the coffee the interest in this election will be white hot. We're just trying to get out in front of the election before that happens.
Our goal is to help win back the House for the Republicans and to help make certain that the new House members are solid conservatives. Just what we will be doing between now and November is really not certain. We will keep up the KeyHouseRaces.com website as our home, continue to post on FR and try to figure out new and clever ways to defeat the House Dems. All suggestions that support that goal are welcomed.
Basically the Ag. Dept... the Dakotas need their welfare money.
It puzzles me that FL-2 is predicted to go Dem in the 2010 election. Somebody hasn’t done much research on how much Alan Boyd is detested here.
This district is very conservative and Boyd played that card every election but they are on to him now. (It has been rumored that Boyd is not going to run again....that he has been promised a Dept. of Agriculture job.)
I’m not sure who the leading contender is.
Great jobs and much appreciated.
Sad I will take a far left socialist rat over a people who are conservative but are so incompetent and greedy they need other to give them handouts. At least the rat acts as designed.
Those states will be the end of us all.
NC-8: I wouldn't list Tim D'Annunzio first. Most of what he's done is make himself look foolish. Being a loudmouth doesn't make him the conservative choice. Ret. Colonel Lou Huddleston has gotten some attention, but it looks like support is coalescing around Harold Johnson.
SD-AL: I would add challenger state rep. Kristi Noem http://kristiforcongress.com/ in one of the "additional" slots.
ID-1: Michael Chadwick? Really?
FL-8: There are at least two bona fide conservative major candidates (state rep. Kurt Kelly, Dan Webster) running, but neither is listed. There are two longshots and Bruce O'Donaghue, who is not terrible but generally considered a more moderate type.
FL-24: I would add Craig Miller http://craigmillerforcongress.com/ to the candidate list since he's likely to finish the primary in the top two; not sure who to boot off, though.
FL-2: Allen Boyd - two L's, one A, one E.
There are a few other races you could include, but maybe give it another month on those.
Thank you very much for your input. I've fixed the Allen Boyd typo in our database and we'll have a close look at the races you listed.
We are always looking for inputs on the races and the candidates. Who's the good conservative. Who is raising money and getting attention. Who can win. And especially who can win and needs our help.
I think it’s a very good effort. Conservatives can make a big difference by picking good Republican nominees and concentrating efforts in winnable races. Keep it up :)
Awesome work!
Please, please, PLEASE add me to your Ping List.
Pretty please? :)
You are on our Ping List. Thanks for the support.
Thank you! :)
In FL 8, who is the strongest Pubbie to take on that wacko, Alan Grayson?
LEANS D.....LIKELY D.....LEANS D........LIKELY D.....LEANS D...
Good Grief Charlie Brown, if your “experts” truly are “experts” then we can forget all those “gains” the GOP was supposed to make this year. Geesh.....depressing.
The following turned up in my inbox on the 24th. Run hard, Raul!
********************************
Michael Chadwick Withdraws from Race for U. S. Congress
In 2010 and Enters Race for U.S. Senate in 2014
- Endorses Raul Labrador
- Announces Campaign for U.S. Senate in Idaho in 2014
Statement by Michael L. Chadwick
April 24, 2010
“Powerful special interests groups in New York City and Washington, D.C. are attempting to disenfranchise the voters in Idaho’s First Congressional District by placing a candidate or surrogate in office that will support their private corporate interests. These groups with the aid of U.S. Senator John McCain, former Governor Dirk Kempthorne and a host of prominent neo-conservatives are seeking to deceive the voters in Idaho into selecting a young Washington, D.C. insider as their new representative. These groups are attempting to stage a political coup in Idaho with the aid of the media and national and state GOP leaders.”
“Vaughn Ward is a stealth candidate – a manufactured candidate – a neo-conservative in the tradition of John McCain. He is not a true conservative. He is attempting to deceive the people of Idaho with slick TV ads and misleading rhetoric. Ward has been selected by elite special interests in New York and Washington, D.C. to serve as their surrogate in the U.S. Congress. We must not allow the elite in America to choose elected representatives of Idaho or elsewhere. Ward’s accomplishments in the military and the CIA have been embellished and are based upon statements by those who seek to place him in power.”
“A monumental battle is being waged in Idaho between the forces of Wall Street who are aligned with powerful special interest and lobbying organizations in Washington, D.C. and the grass roots voters of Idaho. The elite in New York City and Washington, D.C. are working diligently to place Vaughn Ward in office and they will succeed unless the grass roots rise up and support Raul Labrador.”
“It is time for the voters of Idaho to unite behind, support and elect Raul Labrador as the next U.S. Congressman from Idaho. He is a true conservative in the tradition of Ronald Reagan. He has a proven track record of legislative accomplishments in the Idaho State Legislature. He co-sponsored the Idaho Health Freedom Act and is a real leader with proven credentials. He will represent the views of the common man, not the elite in Washington, D.C. He will put Main Street ahead of Wall Street and seek to restore the principles of state sovereignty and personal liberty.”
“We do not want a repeat of the 2006 congressional race where one candidate won the primary election with less than 26 percent of the votes. Therefore, I am withdrawing from the race for U.S. Congress in Idaho’s First congressional District effective today.
“I am proud to endorse Raul Labrador for U.S. Congress and I encourage the good and honorable people of Idaho to elect him as the next U.S. Congressman from Idaho.”
Michael L. Chadwick Announces Candidacy for U.S. Senate in 2014
Effective immediately, Michael L. Chadwick will be a candidate for the office of U.S. Senator from the State of Idaho in 2014. The campaign headquarters of Chadwick for Senate will be located in Post Falls, Idaho. The campaign will be launched on June 1, 2010.
Whaddya think?
There is a strong Vietnamese constituency in CA-47. But the Latino vote is probably bigger. But in election cycle like this one anything can happen. We need to support Van Tran. Getting rid of Sanchez would be so very sweet.
I'm not sure we know at this point but we have a couple of FR Political Wizards working on this race and all the rest to refine our list. Inputs on this subject are always welcomed.
Good Grief Charlie Brown, if your “experts” truly are “experts” then we can forget all those “gains” the GOP was supposed to make this year. Geesh.....depressing.
Not to worry. We just didn't put the Likely R's and many of the Lean R's that look safe to us on the list. We think we will win those.
You have to understand the basic philosophy that we are following with our Master List. We have 90+ districts on our list. The Republicans are expected at this point to pick up about 25 seats. That's looking pretty solid. BUT WE NEED 41 SEATS TO TAKE BACK THE HOUSE.
So our list of 90 districts is intentionally mostly Dems in the Leans D and Likely D column. The list started out about a month ago on FR as a list of Vulnerable Dems. We add in a few not-so-strong Republican seats to our list and a couple of Special Elections but our focus remains on the WEAK AND VULNERABLE DEMS. Some are weaker and more vulnerable than others. We want to find them and get them out of Washington D.C.
The goal is to find the really vulnerable Dems on our list and to push that Republican pickup over the 41 seat threshold and TAKE BACK THE HOUSE AND THE COUNTRY.
So stay tuned, keep the faith and support the good conservative candidates on our list.
I appreciate the clarification but, sometimes your plan can have the opposite effect; it can cause people to become discouraged. It did me. Maybe you could find someplace to put your “disclaimer” so people won’t get bummed out.
But, once again, thanks for the input.
With no disrespect to Hispanic peoples or any minority group, I’m thinking that in an off year election, percentage wise, the turn-out among Orientals will be higher than among the Hispanic population. One reason, they have a strong motivation because there are so few Orientals in office on the National level compared to Blacks and Hispanics. They’ve been biding their time, waiting for a chance to have the numbers to win some elections for their team.
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