Skip to comments.No Political Future for an All-White G.O.P
Posted on 05/05/2010 7:18:19 AM PDT by Kaslin
With a record number of black candidates seeking Republican nominations in upcoming congressional races, the GOP may finally make progress in facing the most serious menace to its survival: the lack of support from any significant segment of the nonwhite population.
Not all of the 33 African-American contenders will win their primary contests, let alone the general election, but at least a half-dozen of them face promising prospects and could provide new energy for a party that desperately needs to shatter its lily-white image.
There are no Republicans among the present 41 members of the Congressional Black Caucus, or among the 24 members of the Hispanic Caucus -- an absence that reflects the party's woeful performance among minority voters in recent elections and may threaten its very existence.
Consider the historic campaign of 2008, when President Barack Obama bested John McCain by a solid margin of 7.2 percentage points. According to the authoritative exit polls, the vast majority of voters (74 percent) identified themselves as "white," and McCain won a landslide among this segment of the electorate, thrashing Obama by a resounding 12 points (55 percent to 43 percent). This was the same margin that George W. Bush commanded among white voters in his 2000 victory over Al Gore. In fact, because of the larger electorate, McCain's losing effort actually drew 9.5 million more votes overall than Bush's victorious campaign of eight years before.
Why, then, did Bush win the White House while McCain suffered humiliating defeat? The answer is that in eight years the nonwhite portion of electorate soared -- from 19 percent of voters to 26 percent of voters. Among these voters, Obama won by a 4-to-1 margin -- easily wiping out McCain's big advantage among white voters.
For two reasons, these numbers command close attention for anyone concerned about the Republican future.
First, there is no chance that white voters will ever again comprise 74 percent of the electorate. Most projections for 2012 suggest that self-identified whites will comprise 70 percent or, at most, 72 percent of those who cast presidential ballots.
Second, it would be hard for any Republican to improve significantly on McCain's hefty 12-point margin among whites, which means that without an improved showing among Hispanics, blacks and Asians, GOP contenders will lose every time.
The math here is brutal and eye-opening. If Obama in 2012 wins the same percentage of the combined black, Asian and Hispanic vote that he won in 2008 (82 percent), then in order to beat him the GOP candidate would need to win an unimaginable 65 percent of all white voters -- whose numbers include such stalwart Democratic constituencies as gays, atheists, Jews and union members.
The 65 percent threshold represents a far higher percentage than Ronald Reagan won in his landslide against Jimmy Carter in 1980, or even his history-making 49-state re-election-sweep against Walter Mondale in '84.
Since white voters won't comprise larger portions of the electorate in future races, and since no Republican could compile a big enough white majority to win the election on those voters alone, that leaves only one possible path for GOP victory: more competitive performance among Hispanic, African-American and Asian citizens.
Fortunately, recent history demonstrates that such competition is possible. In 2004, the exit polls showed that Bush earned 44 percent of both Latino and Asian voters, and 11 percent of the black vote. This represents a huge advantage over the sorry performance of McCain.
Running against Obama, no Republican could have won a big percentage of the African-American community, but if McCain had merely won the same percentage as Bush four years before, he would have drawn 1.2 million more black votes for the GOP ticket -- an obviously meaningful difference in any close election.
Winning an electoral majority doesn't require capturing, or even splitting, every ethnic group, but no candidate can prevail if he (or she) gets overwhelmed among all nonwhite voters. In this context, the GOP doesn't need to win with each of the 33 black Republicans in current congressional contests, or even with most of them.
But if any of them carry their districts in November, it will help change the GOP image as a whites-only political organization and rejuvenate the once-vibrant party of Lincoln and Reagan that is still struggling against marginalization and irrelevance.
That is both insulting and ridiculous.
Medved is a thinker, and you certainly don’t have to agree with him on all points, but he is right here.
A head-in-the-sand approach won’t win elections. Knowing the electorate and its demographics may not, either, but it will go a long way.
Our biggest challenge is to overcome stereotypical thinking — both our own and that of ethnic voters who have backed Democrats out of tradition rather than ideology.
Most hispanic families are both socially and politically conservative on most issues, but they’ve been taught to vote for Democrats. That’s true, too, of many blacks. Asians are hard-working and business-oriented, perfect Republican voters.
Now is a golden opportunity, given the thugs in the current administration, to educate voters of all stripes about what is good for our country.
But you can’t educate anyone with your fingers in your ears and your mouth uttering insults.
Give it some thought.
Who is also running for Congress
But not all blacks are in those “urban black enclaves,” and that is important.
Once good conservative blacks start winning higher office, hopefully this fall, they’re likely to draw away some of those inner city black voters just because of race.
“Are you familiar with this man and his writings?”
Quite. I did not say that I disagree with EVERYTHING he stands for, just that he is too far to the left for my tastes. and that of most conservatives that I know.
“I didnt know Michael Medved is running for office”
You have to run for office to be a liberal Republican?
What do you mean I don’t get it? I didn’t write the editorial. He is only giving his opinion to which he is entitled. Just as you are. You are not going to tell me what articles I can post or not and btw, I am not a van of Medved. I don’t even listen to him and I have no idea on what station he is on in my area
Never do we see an article about the 96% voters for Obama within the black community yet the GOP gets scolded for being supposedly too ‘lily white’.
Enough of this Sh!te!!!
Voting patterns have evolved into collectivism vs conservationism.
The real discussion is anarchy (no government) vs tyranny (too much government). The discussion is how much government is enough to insure and enable the prosperity and freedom of the citizens. The Founders knew this all too well and designed a system to preclude anarchy while preventing tyranny. We have moved away from this of course and see where we are now.
The problem is a tyrannical central/federal government. Black or white, left or right, we will all be caught in the huge structural problems that an out of control Federal government (tyranny) demands. Default, war, corruption, and more are heading are way.
It is all so predictable.
I am not going to tell you. If you want to know then read the darn article instead of jumping to conclusions
Yes, and he's at least an unter-RINO, if not necessarily an uber.
I generally like Medved and his show, but he was prattling on about this in a very annoying manner the other day. It is NOT an all-White party, Michael, and you know that. Truth is we are never going to win the type of Hispanic voters he is talking about, because we can never compete with the Democrats when it comes to giving away goodies from the Federal stash. Therefore, our only hope of political SURVIVAL is to keep the Dems from giving them voting rights in the first place.
Medved is not doing us any favors by appearing to reinforce the Liberal propaganda that the Tea Parties are the Second Coming of the Klan.
depends on which side is doing the claiming.
Watts claims he refused to join and called them (not by name)”race-hustling poverty pimps.”
Poor old Michael “DeadHead” Medved.
Liberty knows no color, neither does Tyranny.
Stay on the road Mike!
I guess my memory is faulty. Would not be the first time.
And? Nobody is excluding anyone. So whites should just die and go away or become Borg and pretend we are non entities?
If they believe in Freedom Life and Opportunity I would happily nominate Blacks for every district. If they are warmed-over Liberals with GOP credentials I want no part of them (see Colin Powell).
Why should there be? The Congressional Black and Hispanic Caucuses don't promote a "Republican friendly" agenda.
Oh, the author falls into the "skin color above all else" trap.
JC Watts was never a member of the CBC when he was in Congress. They wouldn’t let him in.
lol. Hey, I thought you just posted articles.
Hispanics are multi-racial and many blacks are not black at all..
Many are half-black and/or half-white(or some percentage)..
like O’bama(Bob Marley/Julian Bond/Tiger Woods/Jimi Henrix/Malcolm X etc)....
But its advantageous to call yourself black for affirmative action perks...
-OR- identity with victim-hood..when you’re not a victim at all..
Affirmative action has always been, and is NOW, A SCAM...
I suspect neither of caucuses (caucusi?) would admit a Republican.
As Medved mentions, what about gays, atheists, Jews and union members?
Nobama isn’t getting the white vote next time around.
Good God is this a joke? What a genocidal Marxist moron. No wonder the GOP and our nation is in such disarray. Please grab on to nation destroying multiculturalism with both hands you POS.
The Hispanic and Black Caucus? Calling anyone with a brain. Why would any sane white person give a damn about the anti white Hispanic or Black Caucuses?
Perhaps what’s needed is a Congressional White Caucus.
Both are racist organizations and all the members of both are professional racists.
A professional racist is one who is racist for a living
J.C. Watts was not a member of the CBC when he was in office IIRC. I don't recall if he wanted to be a member or not but they certainly did not want him. Letting Democrats decide what makes a good Republican is an absolute recipe for disaster.
I’m quite tired of being lectured to by Michael Medved.
The Republican Party has never been an "all white male" party.
And the Democrat Party has NEVER been the party of freedom and equality for blacks, women, or any other supposed disadvantaged group.
The black vote can’t be reached, which is what most conservatives don’t want to acknowledge.
The left has done a thorough job of instilling false consciousness in the overwhelming majority of blacks, and they will be herded to the polls by the left to vote for leftist candidates for the foreseeable future. What the Rs should do is become more principled and not get involved in a bidding war with the left for the votes of so-called minorities.
Although Medved is interesting - and I am sure a good neighbor and family man - he is not a fighter.
Another African American Astronout
Releated to the photo from the George W. Bush White House archives
-- snip --
We've got two folks here who know how to reach for the stars, and that would be Robert Curbeam and Joan Higginbotham. And I really mean that literally. See, these are astronauts who went into space with the crew of the Space Shuttle in early December. Their job was not much of a job, just to rewire the International Space Station. (Laughter.) It sounds complex. (Laughter.) And it is. It was one of the most challenging missions in NASA's history.
They did their job and, thankfully, came home. And in doing so, I suspect they've earned more frequent flier miles than anybody here. (Laughter.) I really appreciate the fact that they are furthering humanity's path of discovery, and I appreciate the fact that you say loud and clear, our country is unlimited in its opportunities for people from all walks of life. We're really proud you're here. Thanks for coming. (Applause.)
-- snip --
Astronauts Dr. N. Jan Davis (left) and Dr. Mae C. Jemison (right) were mission specialists on board the STS-47 mission. Born on November 1, 1953 in Cocoa Beach, Florida, Dr. N. Jan Davis received a Master degree in Mechanical Engineering in 1983 followed by a Doctorate in Engineering from the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 1985. In 1979 she joined NASA Marshall Space Flight Center as an aerospace engineer. A veteran of three space flights, Dr. Davis has logged over 678 hours in space since becoming an astronaut in 1987. She flew as a mission specialist on STS-47 in 1992 and STS-60 in 1994, and was the payload commander on STS-85 in 1997. In July 1999, she transferred to the Marshall Space Flight Center, where she became Director of Flight Projects. Dr. Mae C. Jemison, the first African-American woman in space, was born on October 17, 1956 in Decatur, Alabama but considers Chicago, Illinois her hometown. She received a Bachelor degree in Chemical Engineering (and completed the requirements for a Bachelor degree in African and Afro-American studies) at Stanford University in 1977, and a Doctorate degree in medicine from Cornell University in 1981. After receiving her doctorate, she worked as a General Practitioner while attending graduate engineering classes in Los Angeles. She was named an astronaut candidate in 1987, and flew her first flight as a science mission specialists on STS-47, Spacelab-J, in September 1992, logging 190 hours, 30 minutes, 23 seconds in space. In March 1993, Dr. Jemison resigned from NASA, thought she still resides in Houston, Texas. She went on to publish her memoirs, Find Where the Wind Goes: Moments from My Life, in 2001. The astronauts are shown preparing to deploy the lower body negative pressure (LBNP) apparatus in this 35mm frame taken in the science module aboard the Earth-orbiting Space Shuttle Endeavor. Fellow astronauts Robert L. Gibson (Commander), Curtis L. Brown (Junior Pilot), Mark C. Lee (Payload Commander), Jay Apt (Mission Specialist), and Mamoru Mohri (Payload Specialist) joined the two on their maiden space flight. The Spacelab-J mission was a joint effort between Japan and the United States.
There are probably more if you bother to do a search
Every now and then I can catch some of Medved’s show and I always find it enjoyable. That said, this article seems very out of character for him.
Why concentrate on the “lack” of minority reps for the GOP instead of concentrating on the high percentage of minorities that expect continued entitlements?
Remember all those white Republicans, Richard Russell, John Stennis, Eastland, Thurmond and the Dixiecrats, George Wallace. Such ignornace of history by so many has seldom been displayed.
Sorry, wasn’t directed at you at all. It’s a pretense as though I was speaking to MM since the article is what I’m addressing.
Quota by color is not a requirement leadership skills are.
Medved’s brief moment of clarity ended about 2003. He is not that different now from his leftist roots, it is just that leftists have moved even farther.
No. He’s right. We’re immigrating ourselves to being a minority party and a demographic minority in this country. The American people were never allowed to vote on this.
And that is a VERY GOOD THING. The Congressional Black Caucus is not a social club that meets once a month to discuss Ophrah's Book Club selections. They furiously lobby, legislate and advocate on behalf of ... BLACKS.
One would hope that even AFTER we elect a few black GOPers that we would STILL be unrepresented on these liberal caucuses.
Which brings to a sharp focus what a useless twot Michael Medved is. He went off the dial in Portland. We had a little invasion of RINO-talk here: the station feature Prager, Medved, Hugh "I love Mitt" Hewitt, and the guy who was on Battlestar Gallactica. He was at least amusing. Listening to Medved was like listening to your high school shop teacher explain what it takes to succeed in life. Pointless, irritating and boring.
We need to reject a lot of self-appointed leaders who seem to have radically different agendas from their positions of power if we are to retake America.
Medved is one who should be stripped of his rank and sent packing.
"Good God is this a joke? What a genocidal Marxist moron. No wonder the GOP and our nation is in such disarray. Please grab on to nation destroying multiculturalism with both hands you POS.
I like your response better than mine. Shorter, angrier, more to the point.
Its become readily apparent that the two ideological groups cannot live under the same political jurisdiction.
We must separate ourselves, probably along state lines, in order to avoid a bloody civil war.
Well that sure sounds like a shout-out to the CWII Ping List. So here it is:
I’m familiar with Michael M-e-d-V-as-in-victory-e-d; I know you don’t have to scratch him very deeply to find “big-government thug”.
Medved is probably pulling down $25,000 per month from the DNC.
Which is odd really, because if whites were as race conscious as blacks and voted GOP like blacks/Hispanics vote Democrat, the Republican party would hold 75% of all elected offices nationwide.
So who are the racists again?
Our biggest challenge is to overcome stereotypical thinking both our own and that of ethnic voters who have backed Democrats out of tradition rather than ideology.
Most hispanic families are both socially and politically conservative on most issues, but theyve been taught to vote for Democrats. Thats true, too, of many blacks. Asians are hard-working and business-oriented, perfect Republican voters.
I respectfully suggest that the people with their heads in the sand are those conservatives thinking there is something to be had for the GOP from black and Latino voters.
Obama's actions are not going to drive away blacks and latinos. Most of them like his policies, what more socialism, want more welfare and approve of things like Amnesty for their co-ethnics. Most blacks don't pay any federal income tax. The issues that are at the core of the conservative movement are, arguably, issues that work against their position in society.
We've been down this useless path for a generation now. Mel Martinez won't let us secure the borders for a decade, now (the Dem/Rep rachet action) Obama can legalize everyone who slipped in on Bush's watch and the White majority will be further disenfranchised.
The only group in America that still tries to organize around principles and not race are Whites. Continuing this stupid asymetrical warfare is going to result in the total crushing of the GOP AND the total displacement of Whites into a hated minority in the USA.
When we slip BELOW majority status, an event that causes the MSM and various minority groups such excitement that they almost pee themselves in anticipation, can we expect that the Affirmative Action programs against us will be repealed? That our kids will get a shot at attending university without giving away a few hundred SAT points to blacks and mestizos?
NO! I don't think so. It's not about fairness or fair play with these groups. It's about "who whom".
The GOP would be far better off figuring out what positions we hold that are alienating the 55% of Whites who are voting for the enemy and make concessions.
Hell will be hosting hockey finals before any significant number of blacks vote GOP. The Medved/Rove/Martinez/Steele strategy is a PROVEN FAILURE. Can we please move on now?