[snip]Posted on 05/14/2010 5:46:49 AM PDT by blam
Retail Sales Surge At Twice Expected Rate -- Stocks Still Heading Lower
Joe Weisenthal
May. 14, 2010, 8:35 AM
Americans sure love to spend money.
April retail sales jumped 0.4% in April, which was twice the .2% analysts were looking for. Stocks are still shooting. Dow futures are off 87.
Here's the full release.
[snip]
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I run my own business. I simply ran out of stuff that was on the shelves, and had to buy more to replenish. I am sure I am not alone.
I would argue that comparing ‘10 to ‘09 is lazy journalism. It is shallow.
To be meaningful the comparison should be made to ‘08 or possibly ‘07.
But the key is, what are people buying? Chinese imports?
What are people buying that creates American jobs beyond shipping and retail? Sales are up a little, but where is the money ending up at?
“...I simply ran out of stuff that was on the shelves, and had to buy more to replenish. I am sure I am not alone.”
For a couple of months now the National Truckload Carrier my wife is a CSR for (32 year employee of...) has been booked, and are refitting, retrofitting, removing from mothballs equipment to get it on the road to move the abundance of freight needing to be moved out there. It’s crazy.
We believe, and have discussed in depth your situation that businesses have run out of merchandise, and are restocking. It is our opinion this surge is a short lived one.
This is consistent with 290K jobs being created.
Unexpectedly exceeding expectations??
I agree with your opinion that things are going to get worse. I would not characterize this perturbation in the data as a surge. This uptick is in the noise and it has yet to be shown that it is a positive trend.
Does anyone think we're going to come out of this unscathed when Europe and their currency goes boom, which would appear to be imminent any day now? This is going to clobber what's left of high tech in the USA, which has become largely dependent on European sales.
The entire world is bankrupt, and this era of western-world big government socialism is about to come to hideous and bloody end.
Just weeks ago we read, ‘retail sales being reported as being up, will be due to INFLATION, going forward’....
Food, water, ammo.....
That's the question. I suspect people were getting their tax refunds and were spending those on things they thought they needed while they had money in their pockets. Were people spending willy nilly or restocking? Also, there was Spring Break and Easter when more dollars are spent. Summer is coming and people will continue to spend their way into deeper debt but the Hussein administration will claim their accolades.
Dry Bulk Shippers Continuing to Rally as Baltic Dry Index Up 8% This Week
May 12, 2010 2:53 PM EDT
"Stocks in the dry bulk shipping sector are continuing higher today as the closely-watched Baltic Dry Index is now approaching the 3,900 level, a value the index has not seen since late 2009. The index has surged more than 30% over the last month and about 8% during this week alone."
The European situation is going to have a bigger impact than the so-called “experts” want to admit. And then there’s this interesting little tid bit - I read yesterday that this bank to going under today (a/k/a FDIC Friday):
Goldman Joins Effort to Rescue Chicago Bank: Report
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37147886
“or they’re spending the money they should otherwise be paying on their soon-to-be-foreclosed mortgages.”
We have a winner!
It could that retailers are loading up in anticipation of a buyer’s splurge that may not continue. Happens all the time. If real incomes stay stagnant, re-fis remain impossible, and stocks just churn instead of advance, then the mini-boom this spring caused by tax refunds and rising stock wealth could sputter.
LLS
Add GAS to that. Gas sales zoomed, up 30%. Now there's a real solid growth indicator. Especially since inflation was not factored in and the ADVANCE estimates were based on a SUBSAMPLE of the CENSUS BUREAU'S full retail and food service sample.
Roger.
LLS
[I run my own business. I simply ran out of stuff that was on the shelves, and had to buy more to replenish. I am sure I am not alone.]
That’s about ditto for me. I finally got some receivables paid and blew it out the door getting caught up and a little inventory. Big surge from nothing, but now I have to hunker down again and pay off debt.
I still remain pessimistic about growth in the US economy. I don't think we are going to hit a depression, but I think stagnation is likely. Our anti-business administration and our increasing debt cannot be good for us.
Well, shipping and retail jobs are nothing to sniff at -- especially shipping. Those can pay quite well.
Nonetheless, consumer spending can rise all it wants; it's business-to-business spending that matters despite what the media tells us. Businesses will, of course, continue to maintain inventories to match any increase in consumer demand.
But, given the tax and regulatory climate in Washington, I just can't see much capital expenditure on the horizon. Business will not expand if it believes the profit will be taken away by government.
In the end, it's that expansion that would provide jobs for the unemployed. It's a repeat of the 1930's.
GDP increases to reflect increased consumer and government spending, but unemployment remains high because of low to negative business investment. Technically, a recovery, but, in reality, plain, old stagnation.
There is so much in your face corruption in this administration and the MSM won’t touch it. Goldman comes in with a last minute save of a Chicago Bank that was going to go under today. Isn’t that special. No wonder the feds have let up on Goldman. Instead they decided to sic cuomo on their rival, MS. They’re all crooks - no better than Madoff. I can’t wait until obama and his fellow ponzi schemers come crashing down.
I hear you on the paying off debt. We had a credit line shut down (after five years, and no late payments.) AMEX decided it did not want to support small businesses (Of course they shut it down after I wrote $5k worth of checks against it....that stung!) Because my business is seasonal, the credit line would keep up solvent for the down months. And then we would pay it down over the good months.
Since they shut down the line had have reverted to a pure cash business. It has taken about two years to get to the point where we can breath again. The retail part of my business is down about 30%. We cut out things like labels, new equipment (we repair before we replace) and simple things like that.
We’ve been able to cut expenses substantially—but I am now dealing with customers creeping past 45 days on invoices...towards 60 days. And if you threaten them with late fees and interest, they say—”sure, I’ll pay it. And then go to your competitor for the same product.”
Things sure do suck some days.
“I agree with your opinion that things are going to get worse.”
I, and another Freeper, posted on FR that this situation is simply NOT going to fix our problems. You CANNOT have sustainable economic growth based on spending and consumption! True economic growth is based on PRODUCTION! And America’s production has been on the decline since the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. Until we redevelop our production base, we will have this bubble after bubble after bubble economy.
This roller-coaster is just starting!!!
I agree with you that production is more of a driver than consumption & spending. Before you have production, however, there has to be capital. Capital is being siphoned out of the market to pay for our federal debt. You can see this on a daily basis by looking at US treasuries, or by reading threads here concerning banks not lending to small businesses. Banks are buying treasuries.
Stop gov't spending, create a pool of investment capital and watch production take off.
“Capital is being siphoned out of the market to pay for our federal debt.”
Oh I agree completely, but even if the fed stopped spending and allowed us to create a pool of investment money, until the US truly redevelops it’s production capabilities and gets rid of these environzis - we are only going to start pumping up another bubble that will ultimately POP!
The growth that has been occurring in the stock market has been just another bubble. As soon as the euro side of the balloon sprung a leak, you saw all the air begin to flow out across the board! America can NOT depend on these other markets to help maintain our economy - this is just more proof that the “global” economy is never going to work because it depends on way too many other shaky economies!
Five years ago, China was barely getting off the ground, but now have the global markets are dependent on their financial stability - STUPID!!!
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