Skip to comments.The PA-12 Results Are Bad For the GOP. Just How Bad?
Posted on 05/19/2010 7:12:16 AM PDT by neverdem
In Pennsylvania’s 12th District, Republican Tim Burns has conceded to Democrat Mark Critz.
One reader’s on the ledge:
Pa12 is more than a disappointment. It is a disaster. You know politics as well as I do (even though I’m probably your senior by at least thirty years). When there is a political wave the following happens: parties win special elections in normally difficult districts; they win with weak candidates; they win all the close elections. They just win, win, and win. Burns’s defeat shows, as of now, the Rs will unlikely take the House. Perhaps they’ll do well; as today’s generic Gallup indicates around a gain in the low thirties. But not what we need. I didn’t read much about what Burns’ campaign was like, perhaps you can offer some meaningful analysis. My guess is that the Republican label is still a liability in many areas; areas that they have to win in order to take the House.
A point: Tim Burns’ task was complicated by the fact that he was running against a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat who ran against the health care bill and the cap-and-trade legislation. The Burns campaign did everything they could to tie Critz to Democratic figures and laws that polled badly in the district – Pelosi, the health care bill — and it appears that in the end, voters in the district weren’t buying it.
But I am wondering about the Burns campaign’s get-out-the-vote operation at this hour. Also, another conservative blogger mentioned to me a few days ago that some supporters of Bill Russell, the Republican who ran against John Murtha in 2008, wouldn’t be supporting Burns in the special election. (Russell is competing against Burns in the primary election for the November ballot; at this moment, Burns leads Russell, 56 percent to 43 percent.) I was skeptical that enough Russell supporters would do this to effect the race, but now I’m wondering. Did the Russell folks keep their ballots blank?
UPDATE: Jay Cost: “I count about 95,000 votes in special election and 111,000 in primaries.” (UPDATE: Nevermind, it’s a glitch on the Pennsylvania site.)
That assumes he won’t a Pelosi robot or Murtha clone. Once he’s in office, he won’t give Pelosi heartburn. EVERY DEMOCRAT IS A WEASEL IN OFFICE — REMEMEBER THE STUPAK 14?
Quite right...this was the seat that Murtha held AFTER accusing marines of cold blooded murder...
Not surprised we didnt take this one...
Aren’t Burns and Critz having a rematch in November?
They face off again in November. Let’s wait and see if Pelosi tames Critz in the interim.
On paper, anyway. But, what has recently been proven is that there ARE no conservative Democrats. Clearly, this guy is trying to paint himself as a conservative - no on cap & trade, no on Obamacare, yes on guns, no on abortion, are all about as orthodox conservative as you can get, yet he's a democrat
This is my worry - Pelosi will schedule a bunch of crazy-left votes (things that have NO CHANCE of passing) for this summer that will allow people like this Critz to vote against, and bear the "conservative" teeth. Americans, sadly, are just stupid enough to fall for, just like the voters in the PA special election.
Sounds like a southern democrat. Some of those guys are more conservative than a lot of republicans.
I’m not democrat or republican. I’m conservative, and the conservative candidate will get my vote.
‘Cept I don’t vote any more. That dog has proven it won’t hunt.
They want to make certain that even if Democrats are swept out of power a "centerist" cadre (read "center-left") still has a controlling majority.
That's not what this is. If a candidate missteps, shows indecision, or otherwise spooks voters in any way, he won't win. Especially if he's a Republican. It's hard to say what went wrong here, but I'll bet the Russell issue had a lot to do with it.
I heard a couple of things from Burns that made him sound pretty milquetoast and establishment to me. I don't know if that affected him with his base in the district, but it may have. It's nearly impossible to tell from several states away just what happened inside the district.
These are serious times and people are clamoring for something more than just voting for 'the other party'. Either they're going to get it, or they won't change their voting habits.
I wouldn’t read too much int this race. The (D) to (R) ratio is 2 to 1 and will likely be a much closer race in November. Once Critz gets to DC he’ll show his stripes to be just like his old boss, Murtha’s. Then November will be a lot more interesting................
If Critz votes against what he ran for this time around, it will make for good fodder for Burns in the fall.
How is this a disaster? I didn’t think we could win in district where a former marine can blame US soldiers for atrocities and still get elected..
Are the idiots this stupid at NRO ? WE all know that answer. These DC beltway types are clueless.The reason the Murtha special election was schedule so late was because the Dem crook Rendell knew the Dem senate primary race and the chance to vote on Specter would drive up more Dem turnout than GOP voters!
What the writer is forgetting is that the dem primary was a highly contested contest that drew a much more enthusiastic turnout than the GOP primary. In November they’re will be a much more motivated Republican electorate, a newly installed congressman with actual recorded votes (which will likely be more party line than not), and another 5 months of Obama economic malaise will have passed. The defeat of Specter is a victory for conservatives, and opens up an opportunity for another Senate pickup this fall.
There is not such thing as a moderate or blue dog democrat!!! They are all rats and they will turncoat as soon as the leadership puts some pressure on them. Remember a Democrat will say what ever is nessesary to get elected then do what ever he wants once in office, this is their SOP. How many times are the American public going to get fooled by these rats??
I don’t know much about PA-12, but it looks like one of THE most gerry-mandered districts in the country.
The fact that this was a "special election" for a seat that will be contested again in just six months gave many Republicans no incentive to support the GOP candidate while he is still facing a primary contest for the November election.
Critz was Murtha’s long time chief of staff. He will vote like Murtha, which will not give Pelosi heartburn.
I like Jim, but I think he’s wrong here. This is an area that elected Murtha even after he insulted our military, had a huge edge in Democrats, is unionized etc.
The candidate ran on a conservative platform. He even said he would have voted against Healthcare. (Yes, I know that’s a laugh, but a lot of people are stupid enough to believe these politicians.) But I just don’t see this being the bellwether county people think it is.
Spector, who jumped to the Dems and is from the same state, got thrown out last night. Anyone status quo is going to go.
hmmmmm Never thought about that.....
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