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Why the Republicans Could Still Lose in November
Pajamas Media ^ | May 23 | Tim Dunkin

Posted on 05/23/2010 10:10:51 AM PDT by AJKauf

The political fortunes of the Republican Party give every appearance of rising from the ashes, like the mythological phoenix of old. Aided by the unpopularity of the radical Democratic agenda and the nakedly overbearing efforts by that party to ram this agenda down the nation’s collective throats, the Republicans are poised to roar back onto the national political scene in November in a way reminiscent of 1994.

Indeed, the talk is generally not about whether the GOP will take back the House, but by how many seats. Regaining control of the Senate, similarly, is viewed by many as an attainable goal for the Republicans. This sort of talk is aided by favorable polling, not the least of which being Rasmussen’s gold standard tracking polls, which have consistently shown that the GOP holds a decent lead in generic preference on congressional ballots — something that bodes quite well for Republican fortunes this fall. Following on spectacular victories in 2009 in which they took back the governor’s mansions in New Jersey and Virginia, there seems to be good reason for this optimism.

However, we should never underestimate the power of the Republican Party leadership to ruin a good thing...

(Excerpt) Read more at pajamasmedia.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 05/23/2010 10:10:51 AM PDT by AJKauf
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To: AJKauf
If obozo steals it, right?If he can get his granny asylum then he can screw the elections up...ppl be sure to vote and lets put a end to this madness!
2 posted on 05/23/2010 10:13:44 AM PDT by FreeperDoll
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To: AJKauf

The only way the conservatives will lost this November is if the Muslim Communist opens the doors for the whole country of Mexico to come in..Just everyone make sure we keep a close eye on the polls..


3 posted on 05/23/2010 10:14:33 AM PDT by PLD
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To: AJKauf

Never underestimate the GOP’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.


4 posted on 05/23/2010 10:17:09 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: AJKauf

OVERCONFIDENCE. IGNORING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. NOT ATTACKING HUSSEIN’S FAILURES.


5 posted on 05/23/2010 10:17:52 AM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
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To: AJKauf

I don’t care if the GOP wins or loses. I do care if conservatives win, and I honestly don’t see that as being possible at the moment. We might roll back some of the insanity, but there’d still be enough to spend the people’s money in grossly outrageous ways.

We HAVE to get conservatives together and run on a unified platform with set goals for the coming congressional session. Make the election a referendum on all the liberal policies that are out there, and roll back the tide.


6 posted on 05/23/2010 10:22:02 AM PDT by kingu (Favorite Sticker: Lost hope, and Obama took my change.)
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To: AJKauf
Indeed, the talk is generally not about whether the GOP will take back the House, but by how many seats.

Nonsense. This guy is deep in a bubble. The GOP figures to pick up between two and three dozen seats. At the upper end of the range, we have a chance of retaking the House, but that would require everything to break right. Let's not set ourselves up for failure by indulging unrealistic expectations.

7 posted on 05/23/2010 10:22:10 AM PDT by sphinx
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To: Recovering_Democrat

Yup. From what I can tell the gop is still offering nothing but socialism lite.


8 posted on 05/23/2010 10:23:46 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote
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To: AJKauf
I firmly believe that what “moderates” respond to more than anything else is competency and leadership. If you display these traits, they will vote for you. If you are wishy-washy, won’t take a stand for anything, and give the appearance of weakness, they will abandon you.

The author is entirely correct here. Most people are "moderate" because they don't really get the issues and want to appear reasonable. When they come to realize that the more power government gets, the more it wants and the more of your money it takes then they wise up. The GOP isn't going to win by saying "I'm not Obama" any more than they succeeded by saying "I'm not Clinton". They need a message that resonates with the people. Above all when something is supported by the people, like the AZ law, don't apologize for supporting it.

9 posted on 05/23/2010 10:26:38 AM PDT by YankeeReb
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To: AJKauf

The dirty little secret from the 2006 election was that it was mostley due to the homo Foley. We like to pretend that the big spending GOP was being punished...but if you look back at the articles and polls at the time (just before Foley) even with the war, even with the spending, there was talk of the GOP retaining control of both houses.


10 posted on 05/23/2010 10:27:07 AM PDT by icwhatudo ("laws requiring compulsory abortion could be sustained under the existing Constitution"Obama Adviser)
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To: icwhatudo
The dirty little secret from the 2006 election was that it was mostley due to the homo Foley.

Don't forget about Bush's approach to immigration. They reluctantly voted to build a fence, and to this day it still isn't done. It isn't that conservatives punished the GOP by voting dim, they simply stayed home.

11 posted on 05/23/2010 10:30:43 AM PDT by YankeeReb
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To: GlockThe Vote
Yup. From what I can tell the gop is still offering nothing but socialism lite.

Rand Paul.

but I know, you have your dogma and cannot be bothered with the FACTS on this topic.

12 posted on 05/23/2010 10:31:23 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (The problem with Socialism is eventually you run our of other peoples money. Lady Thatcher)
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To: YankeeReb

Good point!


13 posted on 05/23/2010 10:33:07 AM PDT by icwhatudo ("laws requiring compulsory abortion could be sustained under the existing Constitution"Obama Adviser)
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To: GlockThe Vote
Yup. From what I can tell the gop is still offering nothing but socialism lite.

A very good article BTW. Still the problem is that these CONgress scabs are puppets to the elites. This is still the corrupt "Two-Party Cartel". 500 in Congress need to be replaced. Then possibly we could rid us of the Fed Reserve & put a Supreme Court in place with true conservative American values. However, the 1st oath any pol needs to do is if elected REPEAL ObamaCare.

14 posted on 05/23/2010 10:34:20 AM PDT by Digger (If RINO is your selection, then failure is your election)
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To: AJKauf

The article makes some good points. But it should be kept in mind that the 1994 Contract with America was not adopted and made public by the House GOP until six weeks before the elections. Their schedule should be accelerated this time, perhaps to about mid July or August at the latest.


15 posted on 05/23/2010 10:35:01 AM PDT by Rockingham
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To: AJKauf

Yep, Steele the idiot is still the head of the RNC.


16 posted on 05/23/2010 10:35:31 AM PDT by VRWC For Truth (Throw the bums out who vote yes on the bail out)
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To: AJKauf

Maybe because they haven’t changed! They are just like the Democrats thirsting for power, geez but we have to give it to them to try to stop the landslide toward the left.

That is the only reason that I can see - it certainly is not because they will govern better, reduce the size of government, or actually do much of anything that the people want, it is that they are NOT Democrats - especially Progressive Democrats. They are the ones taking us down the primrose path - and at this point, only the Republicans can stop it.

Isn’t that a shame that we have to vote for the other party just to stop the party in power... That is what our vote has come to... Makes you proud doesn’t it?


17 posted on 05/23/2010 10:35:57 AM PDT by Deagle
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To: kingu

That will take a new party. The Republican establishment will never allow it. They’d rather see the Democrats win.


18 posted on 05/23/2010 10:41:51 AM PDT by rushmom
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To: AJKauf

if they get cocky


19 posted on 05/23/2010 10:42:39 AM PDT by wardaddy (never been particularly pious but I stand with Franklin Graham...bigtime...you betcha...ya'll)
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To: AJKauf

“Republican “leaders” seem unable to establish true cohesion among elected Republicans, except in opposition to the most extreme of Democratic proposals. It’s to the point now where most of the major Republicans who are vocal about standing up for conservative principles and opposing the Democratic agenda are those who do not actually occupy leadership positions within the party apparatus itself. Think Jim DeMint. Think Sarah Palin. Think Michele Bachmann, Jan Brewer, and Paul Ryan.”

Exactly right, unfortunately. I keep getting this sinking feeling that the GOP leadership really hasn’t “gotten it” yet.

Or, to put a finer point on it, it strikes me that Steele, McConnell, etc. haven’t learned a darn thing from 2006 or 2008. They seem content to pursue business as usual while biding their time for the eventual swing of the political pendulum.


20 posted on 05/23/2010 10:43:23 AM PDT by DemforBush (There's another old saying, Senator: Don't p*** down my back and tell me it's raining.)
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To: MNJohnnie

I like rand paul. I was referring to the michael steel wing of the party.


21 posted on 05/23/2010 10:43:28 AM PDT by GlockThe Vote
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To: AJKauf

Bump for later.


22 posted on 05/23/2010 10:43:34 AM PDT by Cacique (quos Deus vult perdere, prius dementat ( Islamia Delenda Est ))
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To: AJKauf
IT IS ALL OVER, DO NOT EVEN BOTHER TO VOTE COME NOV!

23 posted on 05/23/2010 10:47:07 AM PDT by yield 2 the right
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To: AJKauf

Demographics doom us. Sorry, but any victory will be temporary. The only solution is an Article V convention that will secure our freedoms for maybe another generation.


24 posted on 05/23/2010 10:51:28 AM PDT by MattinNJ (Iron Man 2-a great conservative movie.)
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To: PLD

Why can’t we get Steele out? He’s like some stalker that you just can’t shake no matter how hard you try.


25 posted on 05/23/2010 11:02:44 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: YankeeReb
Most people are "moderate" because they don't really get the issues and want to appear reasonable.

I can't speak for "most" people, but I am both a conservative and moderate in my political perspective. The adjective "moderate" is defined by Merriam-Webster's Dictionary as avoiding extremes of behavior or expression; tending toward the mean or average.

On the political bell curve, rigid or strong ideologues occupy the left and right ends of the curve, and represent a minority of the total population. As with all bell curves, the majority of any population will be somewhere in the upper part of the political curve. Not only is there no shame in being moderate in this sense, but the political ends of the bell curve are constantly pulling, tugging and competing for the votes of the majority in the center-left, center and center-right part of the bell.


26 posted on 05/23/2010 11:05:22 AM PDT by Wolfstar (Note to rigid ideologues: Your own point of view in a mirror is quite a limited window on the world.)
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To: AJKauf

Here is how I think they can lose:

If they are insincere....

If the they make compromise our principles to get campaign dollars....

If they think the way to power is through “messaging”....

If they think the reward of being elected is to expand government in a Conservative or Republican way....

Before November we may not get enough of a sense of these things to look for alternative solutions. However, if we do, they lose.

If it doesn’t become clear that the lied until next year, there will be real, real trouble.


27 posted on 05/23/2010 11:06:04 AM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
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To: MontaniSemperLiberi

I meant:

If the they compromise our principles to get campaign dollars....


28 posted on 05/23/2010 11:07:12 AM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi
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To: MNJohnnie

Did the GOP offer Rand Paul?


29 posted on 05/23/2010 11:12:15 AM PDT by I am Richard Brandon
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To: AJKauf

Republicans could lose the November elections, because they’re becoming cocky and don’t think they can lose.


30 posted on 05/23/2010 11:12:54 AM PDT by BuffaloJack (Comrade O has to go; FIRE OBAMA NOW !!!)
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To: yield 2 the right

I wish folks who use this site would remember Ronald Reagan’s commandment: “Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.” People, like me, who think the party and its leadership aren’t sufficiently conservative should work and vote to get new people in place. That includes speaking out for things you are FOR. But we are getting close to the general election and this is not the time to be trashing our own party. Consider the alternative. The general negativity and bitchiness on this site is a bit much.


31 posted on 05/23/2010 11:18:27 AM PDT by liberlog
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To: yield 2 the right
I was more enthusiastic about voting in the Republican primary than I have ever been. It felt wonderful. The polling place I go to has long lines stretching out the door for registered Democrats and no one waiting in the Republican line.

When they asked me if I'm a Republican, I said, "Absolutely!". One guy in the Democrat line said, "I wish I was this time". I voted for Rand Paul.

My enthusiasm wasn't for Rand Paul necessarily but because I knew I had this chance to oppose Obama and the incredible corruption of the Demo-Marxists in Congress. I felt this could be one of the last elections that I could make a difference.

32 posted on 05/23/2010 11:31:25 AM PDT by TheThinker (Communists: taking over the world one kooky doomsday scenerio at a time.)
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To: yield 2 the right

Yeah!! That’ll sure fix the fix we’re in.

Man you need to stop listening and beleiving the dems propaganda.


33 posted on 05/23/2010 12:15:30 PM PDT by dusttoyou (libs are all wee wee'd up and no place to go)
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