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Top hurricane forecasters see "hell of a year"
Reuters on Yahoo ^ | 5/26/10 | Tom Brown

Posted on 05/26/2010 12:03:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

FORT LAUDERDALE, Florida (Reuters) – The threat of an above-average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has increased over the last month and it now promises to be "very active," two leading U.S. forecasters said on Wednesday.

William Gray and Phil Klozbach, who head the respected Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, said they would ramp up their prediction for the 2010 season in a report due out on June 2.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: atlantic; forecast; forecasters; hellofayear; hurricane; predictions
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1 posted on 05/26/2010 12:03:24 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge

Haven’t they said this every year for the last 2, and been wrong?


2 posted on 05/26/2010 12:04:33 PM PDT by CholeraJoe (Don't mess with Aunt Karen when she's been drinking)
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To: NormsRevenge

Obama’s second “Katrina” coming in!


3 posted on 05/26/2010 12:05:03 PM PDT by Dallas59 (President Robert Gibbs 2009-2013)
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To: CholeraJoe

Yes and Yes. 8-}


4 posted on 05/26/2010 12:06:17 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed .. Monthly Donor Onboard .. Chuck DeVore - CA Senator. Believe.)
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To: NormsRevenge

Wouldn’t a hurricane be good for dispersing a lot of that BP oil?


5 posted on 05/26/2010 12:06:35 PM PDT by kevao
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To: NormsRevenge

Dr. Hansimian disagrees: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faDJzjbTfd4&feature=player_embedded


6 posted on 05/26/2010 12:08:19 PM PDT by don'tbedenied
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To: NormsRevenge

They say this every year! By shear luck they will be right once in a while.


7 posted on 05/26/2010 12:10:15 PM PDT by 1776 Reborn
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To: CholeraJoe

Yes they have and then in about the middle of the season when nothing’s happened they lower thei preddiction and then about a month later they lowerr it again. They’ve become a joke.


8 posted on 05/26/2010 12:13:04 PM PDT by pgkdan (I Miss Ronald Reagan!)
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To: kevao

Apparently not. Not at all.

http://www.petethomasoutdoors.com/2010/05/hurricane-season-looms-ominously-.html


9 posted on 05/26/2010 12:13:08 PM PDT by Jedidah
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To: CholeraJoe

Well, these are the folks in FTL. It always kills me when some egghead in Colorado predicts above average hurricane activity.

It’s pretty hot down here already, but I don’t see the right combination of factors contributing to an increase above what we normally see. Given the frigid winter we Floridians experienced, I’m going to say that the hurricane season is light, but I’m no meteorologist.


10 posted on 05/26/2010 12:13:14 PM PDT by rarestia (It's time to water the Tree of Liberty.)
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To: 1776 Reborn

Yeah, and then those years they happen to be right they will blame the activity on global warming.


11 posted on 05/26/2010 12:13:31 PM PDT by rwh (What great fortune it is for those in power that the people do not think!)
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To: NormsRevenge

Anyone remember what these dim bulbs where saying after Katrina?


12 posted on 05/26/2010 12:13:40 PM PDT by gilor (Pull the wool over your own eyes!)
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To: NormsRevenge

Reading tea leaves has a better predictive value than these experts.


13 posted on 05/26/2010 12:14:10 PM PDT by Drango (A liberal's compassion is limited only by the size of someone else's wallet.)
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To: Jedidah

Well, that is certainly counter-intuitive.


14 posted on 05/26/2010 12:16:28 PM PDT by kevao
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To: gilor

“Anyone remember what these dim bulbs where saying after Katrina?”

Remember? Hell, Al Gore EXPLOITED it using a hurricane as exhaust from a factory as one of his posters for his end of the world fiction film.

I wish I could be around 200 years from now when archaeologists dig all of this crap up. They won’t know whether to laugh or cry.


15 posted on 05/26/2010 12:18:25 PM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: NormsRevenge

Everyone seems to be ragging on William Gray and his hurricane predictions.....but everyone should remember....Wm Gray was one of the first prominent meteorologists to point out that Global Warming was a hoax.....


16 posted on 05/26/2010 12:19:26 PM PDT by UCFRoadWarrior (JD Hayworth for Senate ..... jdforsenate.com)
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To: CholeraJoe

I have been living in FL for 15 years. Every year “could be one of the worst storm seasons yet”. No academic ever got funded for predicting a quiet season.

IMHO, a SWAG is still a guess.


17 posted on 05/26/2010 12:22:19 PM PDT by PogySailor (BHO - Dividing the country into tribes since 2008.)
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To: NormsRevenge

LOL! I’ve heard that one before. These people remind me of Linus, hiding in the pumpkin patch, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to arrive...


18 posted on 05/26/2010 12:22:36 PM PDT by WKUHilltopper (Fix bayonets!)
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To: WKUHilltopper

“Ya just can’t reason, with...”


19 posted on 05/26/2010 12:27:44 PM PDT by maine yankee
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To: NormsRevenge

Triple Crown of global cooling could pose
serious threat to humanity

http://www.iceagenow.com/Triple_Crown_of_global_cooling.htm


20 posted on 05/26/2010 12:29:50 PM PDT by Jack Hydrazine (It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine!)
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To: NormsRevenge

check the weather monkey... what’s he say?


21 posted on 05/26/2010 12:40:35 PM PDT by sten
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To: kevao

Wouldn’t a hurricane be good for dispersing a lot of that BP oil?
~~~
No,,,any storms at all will only drive more oil into

the marsh,,,

It some areas oil is already 12 miles in,,,(small storm)...


22 posted on 05/26/2010 12:40:39 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: NormsRevenge


Top hurricane forecasters see “hell of a year”

Keyword “predictions” attached to this thread.
To see if these experts are proven right.
Or incredibly wrong.

If they are wrong, it’s a two-fer.
1. The USA won’t be devastated by hurricanes in 2010
and
2. The highly-compensated “experts” will be exposed. Once again.


23 posted on 05/26/2010 12:50:31 PM PDT by VOA
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To: NormsRevenge
who head the respected Colorado State University hurricane forecast team

24 posted on 05/26/2010 12:58:53 PM PDT by oh8eleven (RVN '67-'68)
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To: NormsRevenge

The broken clock method of forecasting hurricanes.........


25 posted on 05/26/2010 1:00:21 PM PDT by Lakeshark (Thank a member of the US armed forces for their sacrifice)
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To: NormsRevenge; All; LucyT; Fred Nerks; null and void; stockpirate; PhilDragoo; Candor7; rxsid; ...

Ping...................

Nobody is talking about the impending disaster of the hurricane season.

Everybody is worried about the beaches being slammed by oil, and rightfully so. Nobody is talking about what may really happen that would be far more disastrous.

A hurricane feeds on warm water to add strength. In this case, it may weaken over the huge oil slick, but it will “vacuum” oil and water before hitting land.

The entrained (suspended) water/oil/toxic dispersants would be disastrous rainstorms over land wherever the path might be.

Imagine heavy rains and winds hitting people, houses, lawns, crops, and ventilation systems, slick roads causing accidents and the incalculable health and environmental damage.

This government has to immediately start burning as much oil as possible while the gulf is calm. Failure to do that will make the above scenario incredibly destructive and very difficult to deal with in a short time.


26 posted on 05/26/2010 1:14:50 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: CholeraJoe
Haven’t they said this every year for the last 2, and been wrong?

That just means the odds are getting better that they will be correct. After all, they can't be wrong every year.

27 posted on 05/26/2010 1:17:25 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The Last Boy Scout)
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To: melancholy

Sounds awful. Here’s another article, “Hurricane Could Spread Gulf Spill Far and Wide”:

http://news.discovery.com/earth/oil-slick-hurricane-cyclone.html


28 posted on 05/26/2010 1:25:43 PM PDT by Jedidah
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To: rarestia
FTL

For The Lulz?

29 posted on 05/26/2010 1:26:27 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (Just another day in Oceania.)
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To: PogySailor
a SWAG is still a guess.

I think this is just a WAG ;^)

30 posted on 05/26/2010 1:27:09 PM PDT by Bob Buchholz
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To: 1776 Reborn
They say this every year! By shear luck they will be right once in a while.

Like economists who have successfully predicted 10 out of the last 5 recessions. ;-)

31 posted on 05/26/2010 1:34:10 PM PDT by OB1kNOb (When injustice becomes law, resistance becomes duty. - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Jedidah

Thanks for the link.

They are talking about spreading in the ocean but still nothing about the airborne impending disaster.

I’m really astonished that none of the scientists or weather centers mentioned this very real outcome.


32 posted on 05/26/2010 1:35:26 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: don'tbedenied

You beat me to it. I’ll go with Dr. Hansimian.


33 posted on 05/26/2010 1:37:34 PM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: melancholy

Great point,,,

I guess any storm that formed water spouts would do the

same thing,,,

I just looked at NWS radar and it shows some small stuff

for the most part,,,

One cell south of Houma mite go through the spill area...


34 posted on 05/26/2010 1:41:50 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: melancholy
A hurricane feeds on warm water to add strength. In this case, it may weaken over the huge oil slick, but it will “vacuum” oil and water before hitting land.

The entrained (suspended) water/oil/toxic dispersants would be disastrous rainstorms over land wherever the path might be.

Imagine heavy rains and winds hitting people, houses, lawns, crops, and ventilation systems, slick roads causing accidents and the incalculable health and environmental damage.

OMG - you're right, melancholy - and all of us in Florida live in areas with Hurricane "rains"... Usually rain's not the problem - it's raising water - storm surge. But this will be much worse - a true ecological disaster.

35 posted on 05/26/2010 1:53:02 PM PDT by GOPJ (...man was meant to be doubtful about himself, but undoubting about the truth-Gilbert K. Chesterton)
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To: melancholy

After the storms - when things dry - we’d have much higher risk of run away fires...


36 posted on 05/26/2010 1:54:29 PM PDT by GOPJ (...man was meant to be doubtful about himself, but undoubting about the truth-Gilbert K. Chesterton)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

See post #26 for a REAL ecological disaster...


37 posted on 05/26/2010 1:57:03 PM PDT by GOPJ (...man was meant to be doubtful about himself, but undoubting about the truth-Gilbert K. Chesterton)
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To: CholeraJoe

Yes, they have a global warming computer model “science” approach. They are bound to be right sooner or later. I hope not this year!


38 posted on 05/26/2010 2:41:37 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: melancholy

The corrupt public-private partnership between the oil companies and porn-surfing MMS officials will reap huge NEGATIVE dividends, if your scenario comes true.


39 posted on 05/26/2010 2:43:23 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (70 mph shouldn't be a speed limit; it shoud be a mandate!)
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To: CholeraJoe
Haven’t they said this every year for the last 2, and been wrong?

They say the same thing every year. There's only repercussions if they are wrong on the low side.

40 posted on 05/26/2010 2:44:23 PM PDT by Moonman62 (The issue of whether cheap labor makes America great should have been settled by the Civil War.)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks; Bob J; Just A Nobody; kristinn
will reap huge NEGATIVE dividends, if your scenario comes true.

Their negatives won't mean a whole lot compared to what many sections of the country will see and casualties incurred, God forbid.

The worst is what happens to the population and we'll face disasters we never thought could happen.

Imagine, our air traffic facing landing accidents on slick runways in hit areas, deforestation galore, hydrocarbon vapor explosions in population centers, inside restaurant kitchens and where open flames are, on the roads with hot pavements and car engines. Not to talk about run-off to sewers and lighting up methane gas incidents.

Yes, it ain't gasoline or alcohol, thank God. The crude oil vapor pressure is a lot lower than lighter hydrocarbons.

41 posted on 05/26/2010 4:09:29 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: GOPJ; Bob J

Sorry, GOPJ1 I meant to answer you and instead I typed Bob J!

Sorry, Bob J!


42 posted on 05/26/2010 4:14:48 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: CholeraJoe
Haven’t they said this every year for the last 2, and been wrong?

Global warming predicts that there will be more hurricanes. If that is false, then that casts doubt on global warming. Can't have that.

Current models have Solar Cycle 24 being the lowest sunspot cycle since the Dalton Minimum (the cycle where we had "The Year Without A Summer"), and recent readings show Cycle 24 seems to be fizzling (drooping black dotted line is actual, red line is prediction):


43 posted on 05/26/2010 4:17:56 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Public healthcare looks like it will work as well as public housing did.)
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To: melancholy
A hurricane feeds on warm water to add strength. In this case, it may weaken over the huge oil slick, but it will “vacuum” oil and water before hitting land.

Do hurricanes rain salt water?

The rain from hurricanes comes from evaporated water. To the extent that oil slicks hamper evaporation, they will reduce hurricane power.

44 posted on 05/26/2010 4:24:35 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Public healthcare looks like it will work as well as public housing did.)
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To: PapaBear3625
Do hurricanes rain salt water?

No. The hurricane's wind centrifugal force acts like a giant agitator equipped with a vacuum that evaporates more water at the lower pressure. The oil/dispersant will be entrained (suspended) and lifted up on the walls because of the pressure gradient is the driving force. The higher the elevation, the lower the pressure, results in more vacuum effect.

The rain from hurricanes comes from evaporated water. To the extent that oil slicks hamper evaporation, they will reduce hurricane power.

I said that much in my previous post. However, the hurricane may go down in strength by one category, but it can still make landfall at substantial strength.

45 posted on 05/26/2010 4:45:02 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

Thank God crude has higher specifc gravity than lighter hydrocarbons.

A small storm won’t be as devastating as hurricane wind velocity, agitation area and vacuum effect in lifting heavy crude particles.


46 posted on 05/26/2010 5:07:45 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: melancholy
At this point it won’t much matter,,,

We will get oil on the coast whether the storm is

large or small,,,

The larger the storm the more the chance of water spouts,,,

IIRC : Just a few days after the blowout a small storm

came through and washer oil over the booms,,,

Once the oil gets into that marsh there is no way to

clean it up...

47 posted on 05/26/2010 6:01:47 PM PDT by 1COUNTER-MORTER-68 (THROWING ANOTHER BULLET-RIDDLED TV IN THE PILE OUT BACK~~~~~)
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To: o2bfree

Temps are far below normal this year in the Northern Hemisphere so most likely there will be few if any hurricanes.


48 posted on 05/26/2010 6:06:26 PM PDT by o2bfree (This president is giving me a headache!)
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To: 1COUNTER-MORTER-68

Absolutely. Any storms will bring more oil to the the beaches and beyond.


49 posted on 05/26/2010 7:00:20 PM PDT by melancholy
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To: o2bfree

Two words...La Nina.


50 posted on 05/26/2010 7:04:42 PM PDT by stboz
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